538

[whoman69]

The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by whoman69

They also have a new senate tab which projects the Democrats have a 79.9% chance of holding their majority and average number of seats at 52.0. There are tossups in Nevada (slight lean R 52%), Montana (slight lean R 58%), and Indiana (slight lean D 51%).

Holding the Senate isn't important as it once was. If it takes 60 votes to pass anything, having a majority isnt enough to get anything done.

[WoodDraw]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

Holding the Senate isn't important as it once was. If it takes 60 votes to pass anything, having a majority isnt enough to get anything done.

They'll change the rules eventually. At least for certain cases. Both sides have started bitching too much for it to become sustainable.

[whoman69]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

Holding the Senate isn't important as it once was. If it takes 60 votes to pass anything, having a majority isnt enough to get anything done.

That is another conversation which we are taking up here:

http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=264253

The control of the senate still is important as the majority party gets to pick who is on which commitee, who the chairs are and they set the voting agenda.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by WoodDraw

They'll change the rules eventually. At least for certain cases. Both sides have started bitching too much for it to become sustainable.

Not until a Republican president is elected and the Dems get some payback.

[Amnorix]

Originally Posted by whoman69

That is another conversation which we are taking up here:

http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=264253

The control of the senate still is important as the majority party gets to pick who is on which commitee, who the chairs are and they set the voting agenda.

It's also important when it comes to picking judges. The party holding the Senate has a definite influence, even if not a 60/40 majority, on the amount of leeway the President has to select judges for the Circuit Courts, who are enormously influential.

[whoman69]

As its clear the late surge by the Obama campaign is no longer attached to a convention bounce, the numbers are rocketing towards the Obama campaign. The odds of an Obama victory have climbed to 81.9%, the highest they've been in the model. Obama has gained 6.7% more probability of a win in the last week. Ohio is up to 82% probability for Obama. Without Ohio, Romney needs a different strategy that would most likely have to include Wisconsin and Iowa. Iowa has gone over 75% chance to Obama. Wisconsin is up to 88% for Obama. Obama remains forecast to receive over 50% popular vote nationally at 51.3%-47.6% for Romney. Guess he got the wrong 47%. Romney backers won't want to look at the Now Cast numbers which show that if the vote were held today, there would be a 97.8% chance of Obama victory.

[DaveNull]

Originally Posted by whoman69

Guess he got the wrong 47%.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by whoman69

As its clear the late surge by the Obama campaign is no longer attached to a convention bounce, the numbers are rocketing towards the Obama campaign. The odds of an Obama victory have climbed to 81.9%, the highest they've been in the model. Obama has gained 6.7% more probability of a win in the last week. Ohio is up to 82% probability for Obama. Without Ohio, Romney needs a different strategy that would most likely have to include Wisconsin and Iowa. Iowa has gone over 75% chance to Obama. Wisconsin is up to 88% for Obama. Obama remains forecast to receive over 50% popular vote nationally at 51.3%-47.6% for Romney. Guess he got the wrong 47%. Romney backers won't want to look at the Now Cast numbers which show that if the vote were held today, there would be a 97.8% chance of Obama victory.

I guess that maybe those R's were wrong. Maybe they do need at least part of that 47%?

[whoman69]

Latest results have Obama with nearly an 84% chance of victory. Popular is sitting at 51.5-47.4. Its a 7.8% jump within one week as the polling is seen free of effect from a convention bump.

[alnorth]

Mitt Romney is the first presidential candidate in the last 7 elections with a net disfavorable rating. (not to be confused with job approval rating)

That is freaking incredible. Even if a voter doesn't think someone is doing a good job and doesn't plan to vote for them, they are usually reluctant to tell a pollster that they DISLIKE a candidate. Its hard to tell when a gaffe is going to matter or not (almost never) but that 47% thing may be the very rare gaffe that does matter. The people apparently have decided that Romney is a sneering plutocrat.

[Pitt Gorilla]

To be fair, the polls are clearly wrong.

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[fan4ever]

This will be a fun thread to revisit in November.

[Pitt Gorilla]

Originally Posted by fan4ever

This will be a fun thread to revisit in November.

Do you think Romney will win Ohio or Wisconsin?

[alnorth]

Originally Posted by fan4ever

This will be a fun thread to revisit in November.

Why? 538 wont really be relevant again until 2016, and its not very interesting to see how close they came in each state.

The fun threads will be those started by the "the polls are skewed!" idiots.

[fan4ever]

Shhh, be patient.