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Old 09-26-2012, 08:12 PM  
cdcox cdcox is offline
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Playoff and Draft Pick Odds, 2012

nfl-forecast.com is back for another season.

After Week 3
As of the moment, the Chiefs odds of making the playoffs are 10%.

The distribution of potential wins and draft picks will be shown in my next post.

Unfortunately, this season is shaping up to be a classic case of being Piolied by the Cassel maneuver.

Midway through Week 12

We have an 81% chance of getting the overall #1 pick.

We can afford to win a game, and in all likelihood, still take the number one overall pick. For example, if we win one game and Jacksonville loses out, we will still get the overall #1 pick 99% of the time. If we beat Carolina and they lose out, we still get the #1 pick 75% of the time.

The Chiefs are eliminated from the playoffs.

Midway through week 13

As of now odds of getting the #1 draft pick:

KC 55%
Jax 24%
Oakland 15%
Philly 4%
Field 2%

Midway through week 14

KC 55%
Jax 31%
Oakland 14%
Only 3 with decent odds.

Midway through week 15

KC 70%
Jac 30%
Oakland <<1%

KC guaranteed a top 3 spot

Midway through week 16

KC 92%
Jax 8%

Only way we don't get it is if we beat Denver and Jax loses to TN (barring ties).

Last edited by cdcox; 12-23-2012 at 02:26 PM..
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Old 09-27-2012, 01:08 AM   #31
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Originally Posted by FAX View Post
Okay. Not to wear this out, but based on what? What are they basing the prediction on? Is this Mr. cdcox's system you're using?

FAX
Yeah, I don't know. I opened his program and was looking at the advanced analysis. It showed sliders leaning toward one team every week. The slider was on our side for 10 of the last 13 games as of that moment. I'm sure it gets updated weekly and that will change, but as of then (and probably now) it showed us having the edge if you will to win those games.
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Old 09-27-2012, 01:11 AM   #32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr. Flopnuts View Post
Yeah, I don't know. I opened his program and was looking at the advanced analysis. It showed sliders leaning toward one team every week. The slider was on our side for 10 of the last 13 games as of that moment. I'm sure it gets updated weekly and that will change, but as of then (and probably now) it showed us having the edge if you will to win those games.
Okay. Thanks. I'm with you now.

Yes, it definitely changes each week. All over the place, really. There are tons of variables. Everything except the "Any Given Sunday" factor.

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Old 09-27-2012, 01:12 AM   #33
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Okay. Thanks. I'm with you now.

Yes, it definitely changes each week. All over the place, really. There are tons of variables. Everything except the "Any Given Sunday" factor.

FAX
Yeah. They should add the Muff Boudain analysis every week. That guy knows his shit!
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Old 09-27-2012, 02:11 AM   #34
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Originally Posted by Mr. Flopnuts View Post
Yeah. They should add the Muff Boudain analysis every week. That guy knows his shit!
You know, before he escaped prison (with the help of his daughter and her common-law husband, if you recall) and was lost at sea somewhere off the coast of California, they say that Muff helped write the NFL rulebook. That would certainly give him a great deal of insight and influence with his Vegas friends. Of course, all that was before he decided to leave the priesthood and turn to a life of crime.

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Old 09-27-2012, 04:33 AM   #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr. Flopnuts View Post
Yeah, I don't know. I opened his program and was looking at the advanced analysis. It showed sliders leaning toward one team every week. The slider was on our side for 10 of the last 13 games as of that moment. I'm sure it gets updated weekly and that will change, but as of then (and probably now) it showed us having the edge if you will to win those games.
You're reading it backward. The 0 to 100 scale represents the percent odds of the home team winning. The slider is always closer to the favorite.

I use advancednflstats to determine the game odds and those are updated weekly. Later this week, Brian Burke, author of advancednflstats.com, will publish the game odds in the NY Times blog. Those game odds will be within a couple percentage points of the game odds in the software. Both Brian and I calculate the game odds from his generic team efficiency ratings, but the way we award HFA is slightly different.

BTW, you can move the sliders to do what-if analyses.
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Old 09-27-2012, 05:56 AM   #36
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
You're reading it backward. The 0 to 100 scale represents the percent odds of the home team winning. The slider is always closer to the favorite.

I use advancednflstats to determine the game odds and those are updated weekly. Later this week, Brian Burke, author of advancednflstats.com, will publish the game odds in the NY Times blog. Those game odds will be within a couple percentage points of the game odds in the software. Both Brian and I calculate the game odds from his generic team efficiency ratings, but the way we award HFA is slightly different.

BTW, you can move the sliders to do what-if analyses.
Love it. Gonna play around with it some more tonight. Thanks for the tip. I've always admired it from afar. Much like I've always admired Muff Boudain.
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Old 09-27-2012, 06:34 AM   #37
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I don't know Seedy. I don't see how the draft pick graph suggests we're getting "Pioli'd".

Looks to me like we're going to to pick around 5th, plus or minus 2 picks. If we pick between 3 and 7, we'll have a guaranteed shot at the 2nd-best QB in the draft IMO.
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Old 09-27-2012, 06:35 AM   #38
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I don't know Seedy. I don't see how the draft pick graph suggests we're getting "Pioli'd".

Looks to me like we're going to to pick around 5th, plus or minus 2 picks. If we pick between 3 and 7, we'll have a guaranteed shot at the 2nd-best QB in the draft IMO.
nah. Pioli will trade out of the pick or draft a DLineman.
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Old 09-27-2012, 06:44 AM   #39
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nah. Pioli will trade out of the pick or draft a DLineman.
I don't think he's gonna have a choice. The fanbase is teetering on revolt.

It's a DAILY topic of discussion on both 610 and 810 and they actually are more representative of the "average" fan than we are.
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Old 09-27-2012, 06:46 AM   #40
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I don't think he's gonna have a choice. The fanbase is teetering on revolt.

It's a DAILY topic of discussion on both 610 and 810 and they actually are more representative of the "average" fan than we are.
I truly hope so but I'm not holding my breath either.
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Old 09-27-2012, 06:55 AM   #41
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I truly hope so but I'm not holding my breath either.
I'm not either. I've just never heard the kind of consensus I'm hearing now.
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Old 09-27-2012, 07:00 AM   #42
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I'm not either. I've just never heard the kind of consensus I'm hearing now.
Your right. It's always been a hot topic here, but it's even spilling over to the non die hards. KC wants a new QB....NOW.
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Old 10-03-2012, 04:46 AM   #43
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Updated, I think:

Chiefs have a 52 percent chance of finishing last in the AFC West. 37.5 percent chance of finishing 3rd.

5.7 percent chance of making the playoffs.

Good chance of drafting in the top 7.



Good chance of 4-6 wins.

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I may be brain dead who knows.
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Old 10-04-2012, 11:36 AM   #44
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discussion, please
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Old 10-04-2012, 11:50 AM   #45
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discussion, please
Sounds reasonable
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