Home Mail MemberMap Chat (0) Wallpapers
Go Back   ChiefsPlanet > The GET IN MAH BELLY! Lounge > D.C.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 09-27-2012, 10:42 AM  
SNR SNR is online now
Simply Red's backup vocalist
 
SNR's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Where the hell is SNR
Casino cash: $4575983
Dick Morris believes that at this point, Romney has the advantage

http://www.dickmorris.com/romney-pulls-ahead/

Romney Pulls Ahead
By Dick Morris on September 25, 2012

The published polling in this year’s presidential race is unusually inaccurate because this is the first election in which who votes determines how they vote. Obama’s massive leads among blacks, Latinos, young people, and single women vie with Romney’s margin among the elderly, married white women, and white men. Tell me your demographic and I’ll tell you who you’re voting for and I’ll be right at least two times out of three!

Most pollsters are weighting their data on the assumption that the 2012 electorate will turn out in the same proportion as the 2008 voters did. But polling indicates a distinct lack of enthusiasm for the president among his core constituency. He’ll still carry them by heavy margins, but the turnout will likely lag behind the 2008 stats. (The 2008 turnout was totally unlike that in other years with all-time historic high turnouts among Obama’s main demographic groups).

Specifically, most pollsters are using 2008 party preferences to weight their 2012 survey samples, reflecting a much larger Democratic preference than is now really the case.

In my own polling, I found a lurch to the Democrats right after their convention, but subsequent research indicates that it has since petered out. Indeed, when one compares party identification in the August and September polls of this year in swing states, the Democratic Party identification is flat while the ranks of Republicans rose by an average of two points per state.
Pollster Scott Rasmussen has the best solution to the party id problem. He weights his polls to reflect the unweighted party identification of the previous three weeks, so he has a dynamic model which adjusts for sampling error but still takes account of gradual changes in the electorate’s partisan preferences.

Finally, with Obama below 50% of the vote in most swing states, he is hitting up against a glass ceiling in the high 40s. He can’t get past it except in heavily Democratic states like New York or California. The first time Obama breaks 50 will not be on Election Day. Either he consistently polls above 50% of the vote or he won’t ever get there in the actual vote.

So here’s where the race really stands today based on Rasmussen’s polling:

• Romney leads decisively in all states McCain carried (173 electoral votes).

• Romney is more than ten points ahead in Indiana – which Obama carried. (11 electoral votes)

• Romney leads Obama in the following states the president carried in 2008: Iowa (44-47) North Carolina (45-51), Colorado (45-47), and New Hampshire (45-48). He’ll probably win them all. (34 electoral votes).

This comes to 218 of the 270 Romney needs. But…

• Obama is below 50% of the vote in a handful of key swing states and leads Romney by razor thin margins in each one. All these states will go for Romney unless and until Obama can show polling support of 50% of the vote:

• Obama leads in Ohio (47-46) and Virginia (49-48) by only 1 point (31 electoral votes)

• Obama leads in Florida (48-460) and Nevada (47-45) by only 2 points (35 electoral votes)

If Romney carries Ohio, Virginia, and Florida, he wins. And other states are in play.

• Obama leads in Wisconsin (49-46) by only 3 points (10 electoral votes)

• Obama’s lead in Michigan is down to four points according to a recent statewide poll

• Obama is only getting 51% of the vote in Pennsylvania and 53% in New Jersey. And don’t count out New Mexico.
It would be accurate to describe the race now as tied. But Romney has the edge because:

• The incumbent is under 50% in key states and nationally. He will probably lose any state where he is below 50% of the vote.

• The Republican enthusiasm and likelihood of voting is higher

• The GOP field organization is better.

That’s the real state of play today.
Posts: 54,219
SNR is obviously part of the inner Circle.SNR is obviously part of the inner Circle.SNR is obviously part of the inner Circle.SNR is obviously part of the inner Circle.SNR is obviously part of the inner Circle.SNR is obviously part of the inner Circle.SNR is obviously part of the inner Circle.SNR is obviously part of the inner Circle.SNR is obviously part of the inner Circle.SNR is obviously part of the inner Circle.SNR is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 09-27-2012, 10:43 AM   #2
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
Black for Palestine
 
Direckshun's Avatar
 

Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Springpatch
Casino cash: $1207471
Dick Morris.
__________________
Posts: 43,479
Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 09-27-2012, 10:44 AM   #3
RubberSponge RubberSponge is offline
It's got a lock on it!
 
RubberSponge's Avatar
 

Join Date: Aug 2010
Casino cash: $14408
Posts: 843
RubberSponge must have mowed badgirl's lawn.RubberSponge must have mowed badgirl's lawn.RubberSponge must have mowed badgirl's lawn.RubberSponge must have mowed badgirl's lawn.RubberSponge must have mowed badgirl's lawn.RubberSponge must have mowed badgirl's lawn.RubberSponge must have mowed badgirl's lawn.RubberSponge must have mowed badgirl's lawn.RubberSponge must have mowed badgirl's lawn.RubberSponge must have mowed badgirl's lawn.RubberSponge must have mowed badgirl's lawn.
  Reply With Quote
Old 09-27-2012, 10:45 AM   #4
KILLER_CLOWN KILLER_CLOWN is offline
Be HEALED!!!!!!!
 
KILLER_CLOWN's Avatar
 

Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: Fascist State
Casino cash: $11142616
Special ed strikes again.
__________________
"Not every one that saith unto me, Lord, Lord, shall enter into the kingdom of heaven; but he that doeth the will of my Father ... And then will I profess unto them, I never knew you: depart from me, ye that work iniquity."

"If the people let government decide what foods they eat and what medicines they take, their bodies will soon be in as sorry a state as are the souls of those who live under tyranny." - Thomas Jefferson
Posts: 24,192
KILLER_CLOWN is obviously part of the inner Circle.KILLER_CLOWN is obviously part of the inner Circle.KILLER_CLOWN is obviously part of the inner Circle.KILLER_CLOWN is obviously part of the inner Circle.KILLER_CLOWN is obviously part of the inner Circle.KILLER_CLOWN is obviously part of the inner Circle.KILLER_CLOWN is obviously part of the inner Circle.KILLER_CLOWN is obviously part of the inner Circle.KILLER_CLOWN is obviously part of the inner Circle.KILLER_CLOWN is obviously part of the inner Circle.KILLER_CLOWN is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 09-27-2012, 10:46 AM   #5
RubberSponge RubberSponge is offline
It's got a lock on it!
 
RubberSponge's Avatar
 

Join Date: Aug 2010
Casino cash: $14408
Quote:
Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
Dick Morris.
aka patteeu
Posts: 843
RubberSponge must have mowed badgirl's lawn.RubberSponge must have mowed badgirl's lawn.RubberSponge must have mowed badgirl's lawn.RubberSponge must have mowed badgirl's lawn.RubberSponge must have mowed badgirl's lawn.RubberSponge must have mowed badgirl's lawn.RubberSponge must have mowed badgirl's lawn.RubberSponge must have mowed badgirl's lawn.RubberSponge must have mowed badgirl's lawn.RubberSponge must have mowed badgirl's lawn.RubberSponge must have mowed badgirl's lawn.
  Reply With Quote
Old 09-27-2012, 10:50 AM   #6
La literatura La literatura is offline
MVP
 
La literatura's Avatar
 

Join Date: Nov 2011
Casino cash: $50809
Quote:
Originally Posted by RubberSponge View Post
Life advice: If at any moment you find Sean Hannity is being more reasonable than you, you should retire from public light.
Posts: 7,171
La literatura is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.La literatura is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.La literatura is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.La literatura is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.La literatura is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.La literatura is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.La literatura is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.La literatura is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.La literatura is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.La literatura is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.La literatura is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.
  Reply With Quote
Old 09-27-2012, 10:53 AM   #7
Donger Donger is offline
"Think BOOM!"
 
Donger's Avatar
 

Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: 33.675° N 106.475° W
Casino cash: $6
Are the Obama people here under the impression that the Democrat turn-out in November will be the same as it was in 2008? That seems to be the question at hand.
__________________
I think the young people enjoy it when I "get down," verbally, don't you?
Posts: 74,837
Donger is obviously part of the inner Circle.Donger is obviously part of the inner Circle.Donger is obviously part of the inner Circle.Donger is obviously part of the inner Circle.Donger is obviously part of the inner Circle.Donger is obviously part of the inner Circle.Donger is obviously part of the inner Circle.Donger is obviously part of the inner Circle.Donger is obviously part of the inner Circle.Donger is obviously part of the inner Circle.Donger is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 09-27-2012, 10:56 AM   #8
RubberSponge RubberSponge is offline
It's got a lock on it!
 
RubberSponge's Avatar
 

Join Date: Aug 2010
Casino cash: $14408
Quote:
Originally Posted by Donger View Post
Are the Obama people here under the impression that the Democrat turn-out in November will be the same as it was in 2008? That seems to be the question at hand.
I'm not an Obama person. I think both parties suffer from lower than expected turnouts. Shitty candidates will do it.
Posts: 843
RubberSponge must have mowed badgirl's lawn.RubberSponge must have mowed badgirl's lawn.RubberSponge must have mowed badgirl's lawn.RubberSponge must have mowed badgirl's lawn.RubberSponge must have mowed badgirl's lawn.RubberSponge must have mowed badgirl's lawn.RubberSponge must have mowed badgirl's lawn.RubberSponge must have mowed badgirl's lawn.RubberSponge must have mowed badgirl's lawn.RubberSponge must have mowed badgirl's lawn.RubberSponge must have mowed badgirl's lawn.
  Reply With Quote
Old 09-27-2012, 10:57 AM   #9
dirk digler dirk digler is offline
Please squeeze
 
dirk digler's Avatar
 

Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Clinton, MO
Casino cash: $185260
Quote:
Originally Posted by Donger View Post
Are the Obama people here under the impression that the Democrat turn-out in November will be the same as it was in 2008? That seems to be the question at hand.
Possibly because every 4 years turnout increases or at has the last few elections

Year Voting-age
population
Voter
registration
Voter turnout Turnout of voting-age
population (percent)
2010** 235,809,266 NA 90,682,968 37.8%
2008* 231,229,580 NA 132,618,580* 56.8
2006 220,600,000 135,889,600 80,588,000 37.1
2004 221,256,931 174,800,000 122,294,978 55.3
2002 215,473,000 150,990,598 79,830,119 37.0
2000 205,815,000 156,421,311 105,586,274 51.3
Posts: 48,155
dirk digler 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.dirk digler 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.dirk digler 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.dirk digler 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.dirk digler 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.dirk digler 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.dirk digler 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.dirk digler 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.dirk digler 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.dirk digler 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.dirk digler 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.
  Reply With Quote
Old 09-27-2012, 11:00 AM   #10
SNR SNR is online now
Simply Red's backup vocalist
 
SNR's Avatar
 

Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Where the hell is SNR
Casino cash: $4575983
Quote:
Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
Dick Morris.
Hey, that's why I said Dick Morris believes it. I could have used an HCF/sportsshrink/pete title like "OOOOOOOPS, looks like Obama will lose afterall!" but I didn't.

I report, you decide.
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by Reaper16 View Post
I would read an entire blog of SNR breaking down athletes' musical capabilities like draft scouting reports.
Posts: 54,219
SNR is obviously part of the inner Circle.SNR is obviously part of the inner Circle.SNR is obviously part of the inner Circle.SNR is obviously part of the inner Circle.SNR is obviously part of the inner Circle.SNR is obviously part of the inner Circle.SNR is obviously part of the inner Circle.SNR is obviously part of the inner Circle.SNR is obviously part of the inner Circle.SNR is obviously part of the inner Circle.SNR is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 09-27-2012, 11:04 AM   #11
Donger Donger is offline
"Think BOOM!"
 
Donger's Avatar
 

Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: 33.675° N 106.475° W
Casino cash: $6
Quote:
Originally Posted by dirk digler View Post
Possibly because every 4 years turnout increases or at has the last few elections

Year Voting-age
population
Voter
registration
Voter turnout Turnout of voting-age
population (percent)
2010** 235,809,266 NA 90,682,968 37.8%
2008* 231,229,580 NA 132,618,580* 56.8
2006 220,600,000 135,889,600 80,588,000 37.1
2004 221,256,931 174,800,000 122,294,978 55.3
2002 215,473,000 150,990,598 79,830,119 37.0
2000 205,815,000 156,421,311 105,586,274 51.3
You think there's the same amount of enthusiasm for Obama in 2012 as there was in 2008?
__________________
I think the young people enjoy it when I "get down," verbally, don't you?
Posts: 74,837
Donger is obviously part of the inner Circle.Donger is obviously part of the inner Circle.Donger is obviously part of the inner Circle.Donger is obviously part of the inner Circle.Donger is obviously part of the inner Circle.Donger is obviously part of the inner Circle.Donger is obviously part of the inner Circle.Donger is obviously part of the inner Circle.Donger is obviously part of the inner Circle.Donger is obviously part of the inner Circle.Donger is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 09-27-2012, 11:07 AM   #12
cosmo20002 cosmo20002 is offline
Debunking your bullshit
 
cosmo20002's Avatar
 

Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: KC area
Casino cash: $119841
Quote:
Originally Posted by Donger View Post
Are the Obama people here under the impression that the Democrat turn-out in November will be the same as it was in 2008? That seems to be the question at hand.
It is often repeated by right-wing pundits that all these polls are using 2008 turnout models. I hate to nitpick, but is that even true?

A lot of factors go into these polls and I don't think any of them release their complete formula. They may (or may not) start with 2008 as a base then make adjustments--but no one ever mentions the adjustments. Really, who the **** actually knows? But it doesn't stop the right wing pundits and their sheep from simply repeating that every poll is incorrect because of this alleged 2008 turnout issue.

I would think the pollsters would want to be accurate. But then again, maybe they are all involved in a conspiracy together to trick the public.
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris616 View Post
As long as Jesus Christ was the president of the US and approved of it Yes.
Posts: 17,071
cosmo20002 is obviously part of the inner Circle.cosmo20002 is obviously part of the inner Circle.cosmo20002 is obviously part of the inner Circle.cosmo20002 is obviously part of the inner Circle.cosmo20002 is obviously part of the inner Circle.cosmo20002 is obviously part of the inner Circle.cosmo20002 is obviously part of the inner Circle.cosmo20002 is obviously part of the inner Circle.cosmo20002 is obviously part of the inner Circle.cosmo20002 is obviously part of the inner Circle.cosmo20002 is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 09-27-2012, 11:18 AM   #13
Donger Donger is offline
"Think BOOM!"
 
Donger's Avatar
 

Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: 33.675° N 106.475° W
Casino cash: $6
Quote:
Originally Posted by cosmo20002 View Post
It is often repeated by right-wing pundits that all these polls are using 2008 turnout models. I hate to nitpick, but is that even true?

A lot of factors go into these polls and I don't think any of them release their complete formula. They may (or may not) start with 2008 as a base then make adjustments--but no one ever mentions the adjustments. Really, who the **** actually knows? But it doesn't stop the right wing pundits and their sheep from simply repeating that every poll is incorrect because of this alleged 2008 turnout issue.

I would think the pollsters would want to be accurate. But then again, maybe they are all involved in a conspiracy together to trick the public.
Daily Beast says it's true.
__________________
I think the young people enjoy it when I "get down," verbally, don't you?
Posts: 74,837
Donger is obviously part of the inner Circle.Donger is obviously part of the inner Circle.Donger is obviously part of the inner Circle.Donger is obviously part of the inner Circle.Donger is obviously part of the inner Circle.Donger is obviously part of the inner Circle.Donger is obviously part of the inner Circle.Donger is obviously part of the inner Circle.Donger is obviously part of the inner Circle.Donger is obviously part of the inner Circle.Donger is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 09-27-2012, 11:21 AM   #14
dirk digler dirk digler is offline
Please squeeze
 
dirk digler's Avatar
 

Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Clinton, MO
Casino cash: $185260
Quote:
Originally Posted by Donger View Post
You think there's the same amount of enthusiasm for Obama in 2012 as there was in 2008?
Probably not but Dems only increased by a small margin
Quote:
“A downturn in the number and percentage of Republican voters going to the polls seemed to be the primary explanation for the lower than predicted turnout,” the report said. Compared to 2004, Republican turnout declined by 1.3 percentage points to 28.7 percent, while Democratic turnout increased by 2.6 points from 28.7 percent in 2004 to 31.3 percent in 2008.
Posts: 48,155
dirk digler 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.dirk digler 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.dirk digler 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.dirk digler 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.dirk digler 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.dirk digler 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.dirk digler 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.dirk digler 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.dirk digler 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.dirk digler 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.dirk digler 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.
  Reply With Quote
Old 09-27-2012, 11:24 AM   #15
J Diddy J Diddy is offline
One Groovy Cat
 
J Diddy's Avatar
 

Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: The Pitt State baby
Casino cash: $166198
Quote:
Originally Posted by Literature View Post
Life advice: If at any moment you find Sean Hannity is being more reasonable than you, you should retire from public light.
Well said.
Posts: 29,296
J Diddy is obviously part of the inner Circle.J Diddy is obviously part of the inner Circle.J Diddy is obviously part of the inner Circle.J Diddy is obviously part of the inner Circle.J Diddy is obviously part of the inner Circle.J Diddy is obviously part of the inner Circle.J Diddy is obviously part of the inner Circle.J Diddy is obviously part of the inner Circle.J Diddy is obviously part of the inner Circle.J Diddy is obviously part of the inner Circle.J Diddy is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -6. The time now is 06:21 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.0
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.