538

[whoman69]

The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

[alnorth]

protip: self-identified party affiliation is very fluid and can change rather quickly.

They aren't usually asking people how they are registered, just what they think of themselves as right now. So, a poll that shows a +10D sample in a state that was +2D 4 years ago isn't necessarily skewed.

This is something I've only accepted recently, so its understandable why people on the right may be confused, but they'll have a rude awakening soon. The left went through this 8 years ago when they openly mocked polls showing Kerry losing because of an "unprecedented" amount of people identifying themselves as Republicans. Turns out, the Republican brand was stronger back then, and people were more likely to tell a pollster they are a republican, and less likely to identify as a democrat. Prior "democrats" started saying they were independent, and prior "independents" started saying they were Republican.

We're going the other way now. I know this happens to some extent because I would have told a pollster I was republican 4 years ago. Now I'm telling them I'm independent. Party identification is not something you can pre-determine and re-weight to, it is something you discover. The only thing pollsters should be weighting is age and race to more accurately reflect likely voters. Hearing someone say "I'm a democrat" merely means they are probably voting for Obama. 4 years ago that person may have said "I'm independent" and struggling to decide between Obama and McCain.

unskewedpolls.com is a very stupid site which will be laughed at shortly.

[dirk digler]

You know you are in trouble when Bush is more popular than you are.

[alnorth]

Originally Posted by fan4ever

Shhh, be patient.

You have only 5 more weeks to keep telling yourself that Romney is way ahead of Obama.

After he gets crushed, I'll be interested to see if you realize that the polls weren't skewed, or if you'll conclude "damn it, the media successfully fooled us and convinced the republicans to stay home! We woulda won!"

I'm betting Limbaugh goes that route to explain why the Romney landslide failed to happen.

[ChiTown]

Romney making Michael Dukakis's '88 campaign look competent..............

[cosmo20002]

Originally Posted by alnorth

You have only 5 more weeks to keep telling yourself that Romney is way ahead of Obama.

After he gets crushed, I'll be interested to see if you realize that the polls weren't skewed, or if you'll conclude "damn it, the media successfully fooled us and convinced the republicans to stay home! We woulda won!"

I'm betting Limbaugh goes that route to explain why the Romney landslide failed to happen.

They have done the "polls are biased" thing before, but they are really going all-in this time. When Romney doesn't win, as he is predicted to do on unskewed.com, the next step is inevitable--double down on voter fraud allegations.

[alnorth]

Originally Posted by cosmo20002

They have done the "polls are biased" thing before, but they are really going all-in this time. When Romney doesn't win, as he is predicted to do on unskewed.com, the next step is inevitable--double down on voter fraud allegations.

It appears that he's going to get killed too badly for voter fraud. He can't even get the voters to LIKE him and say "eh, I'm sure he's a good guy", much less VOTE for him, I don't think he'll even be able to keep it close.

Limbaugh is laying the foundations for his escape hatch right now, angrily accusing the liberal media of trying to depress republican voters, talking to people like Dick Morris who is confidently saying that all the polls are wrong and Romney's ahead. If Romney goes down in flames, Rush will solemnly tell his audience on Wednesday that the media succeeded in their treachery, Romney would have won but too many Republicans believed he couldn't win and didn't vote. So, they must work to make sure it never happens again, to never believe the polls, always assume you can win, and vote no matter what. (which isn't a bad message I guess, except it might prevent the GOP from analyzing why they might have lost)

That is going to be a little hard for the sane people to believe if the GOP retains the house. If republican voter depression causes what should be a Romney landslide to turn into a near-Obama landslide, you'd think the GOP would get wiped out in congress, too.

[Aries Walker]

That "unskewed" website is a joke. It's one guy with an obvious agenda, and should be roundly ignored.

[jiveturkey]

What do the long term demographics look like? Someone mentioned (maybe on here) that Texas might be in play in 2016 (more likely 2020) due to the quick raise in Latino voters (legal one's).

[fan4ever]

Originally Posted by alnorth

You have only 5 more weeks to keep telling yourself that Romney is way ahead of Obama.

After he gets crushed, I'll be interested to see if you realize that the polls weren't skewed, or if you'll conclude "damn it, the media successfully fooled us and convinced the republicans to stay home! We woulda won!"

I'm betting Limbaugh goes that route to explain why the Romney landslide failed to happen.

Actually I think the media projecting Obama (way) ahead is good for the Republicans...will likely keep some lazy asses home.

If this clown is re-elected eating crow will be the least of my worries. And you'll have the jubilance of re-electing Nero...with his fiddle solo just around the corner.

[alnorth]

Originally Posted by fan4ever

And you'll have the jubilance of re-electing Nero...with his fiddle solo just around the corner.

Hey, don't blame me, I'm voting for Gary Johnson. Both candidates are too pro-war for me. Romney's just a little more thirsty for Iranian blood than Obama, thats all.

Politics aside, I just enjoy the political horse race and the drama of election night, even though we're destined to have a president I don't want no matter which major party wins.

[alnorth]

Originally Posted by jiveturkey

What do the long term demographics look like? Someone mentioned (maybe on here) that Texas might be in play in 2016 (more likely 2020) due to the quick raise in Latino voters (legal one's).

Caucasians will be less than 50% within 30 years. It isn't coming quickly, just 1 or 2 percent every 4 years and 2020 might be too soon for Texas, but the current incarnation of the GOP is doomed unless they go left on immigration and try to grab the hispanic vote, which isn't quite as beholden to the Dems as other minority groups.

One way to think about it: If the black/white/hispanic voter breakdown from 2008 had occurred in 1980, Carter would have won fairly easily. In 1984, Reagan still would have won, but Mondale would have kept it reasonably close.

[fan4ever]

Originally Posted by alnorth

Politics aside, I just enjoy the political horse race and the drama of election night, even though we're destined to have a president I don't want no matter which major party wins.

Blame is, and will be, a waste of time...reality is what's going to suck...try to enjoy that.

[whoman69]

Originally Posted by fan4ever

Actually I think the media projecting Obama (way) ahead is good for the Republicans...will likely keep some lazy asses home.

If this clown is re-elected eating crow will be the least of my worries. And you'll have the jubilance of re-electing Nero...with his fiddle solo just around the corner.

That works both ways. Some Republicans might be too depressed to vote. Or they may not be looking forward to Romeygeddon.

[fan4ever]

Originally Posted by whoman69

That works both ways. Some Republicans might be too depressed to vote. Or they may not be looking forward to Romeygeddon.

I assume you're not a Republican. I've never seen so many of my conservative friends, clients, and even strangers be so vocal in politics in my whole life...we'll vote...no matter the odds...and for the few that don't, they'd better have one helluva excuse.

[alnorth]

Originally Posted by fan4ever

I assume you're not a Republican. I've never seen so many of my conservative friends, clients, and even strangers be so vocal in politics in my whole life...we'll vote...no matter the odds...and for the few that don't, they'd better have one helluva excuse.

I absolutely believe this, and think there's no chance at all of a severe republican "depression" (at least before Romney loses) impacting the vote. The hard-core conservatives will crawl over broken glass to vote against Obama come hell or high water no matter the odds. The problem is there just wont be enough of them because the independents and a chunk of libertarians have left the tent.

Thats why it'll be fascinating to hear Limbaugh squirm if he tries to explain that too many Republicans stayed home. Bullcrap, the Dems have always been the party of the lazy voter and the GOP the party of the motivated. He'll either have to admit he was just completely wrong about the polls being skewed, or he'll have to sell an unbelievable tale about how that wily liberal media beat them.