538

[whoman69]

The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

[Pitt Gorilla]

Originally Posted by Aries Walker

That "unskewed" website is a joke. It's one guy with an obvious agenda, and should be roundly ignored.

I don't think anyone has been dumb enough to take it seriously.

[ReynardMuldrake]

Originally Posted by alnorth

protip: self-identified party affiliation is very fluid and can change rather quickly.

They aren't usually asking people how they are registered, just what they think of themselves as right now. So, a poll that shows a +10D sample in a state that was +2D 4 years ago isn't necessarily skewed.

This is something I've only accepted recently, so its understandable why people on the right may be confused, but they'll have a rude awakening soon. The left went through this 8 years ago when they openly mocked polls showing Kerry losing because of an "unprecedented" amount of people identifying themselves as Republicans. Turns out, the Republican brand was stronger back then, and people were more likely to tell a pollster they are a republican, and less likely to identify as a democrat. Prior "democrats" started saying they were independent, and prior "independents" started saying they were Republican.

We're going the other way now. I know this happens to some extent because I would have told a pollster I was republican 4 years ago. Now I'm telling them I'm independent. Party identification is not something you can pre-determine and re-weight to, it is something you discover. The only thing pollsters should be weighting is age and race to more accurately reflect likely voters. Hearing someone say "I'm a democrat" merely means they are probably voting for Obama. 4 years ago that person may have said "I'm independent" and struggling to decide between Obama and McCain.

unskewedpolls.com is a very stupid site which will be laughed at shortly.

This is exactly how pollsters do it. With one or two exceptions, all the pollsters weight their polls by demographics and not by party affiliation.

Which is why the 'skewed polls' argument doesn't make any sense. As it is now, the polls don't cook any party breakdowns into their results at all.

[fan4ever]

Originally Posted by alnorth

Thats why it'll be fascinating to hear Limbaugh squirm if he tries to explain that too many Republicans stayed home. Bullcrap, the Dems have always been the party of the lazy voter and the GOP the party of the motivated. He'll either have to admit he was just completely wrong about the polls being skewed, or he'll have to sell an unbelievable tale about how that wily liberal media beat them.

I think your hard on over Limbaugh will be short lived as we watch the country go down into the crapper even farther. "Look at Limbaugh!!! What a dipshit!!! Wait...what happened to my job?"

Limbaugh's tale, if he has one to tell, will be more along the lines of this country becoming one of "Ask not what you can do for your country, ask what your country can do for you".

[whoman69]

Originally Posted by cosmo20002

They have done the "polls are biased" thing before, but they are really going all-in this time. When Romney doesn't win, as he is predicted to do on unskewed.com, the next step is inevitable--double down on voter fraud allegations.

So conservatives can't stand the real news so they have Fox make it up for them. Now they can't stand the polls so unskewed does it for them? Even Fox News doesn't even have Romney ahead. Looking at their polls I keep hearing a song, "One of these things is not like the other..."

[fan4ever]

Originally Posted by whoman69

So conservatives can't stand the real news so they have Fox make it up for them. Now they can't stand the polls so unskewed does it for them? Even Fox News doesn't even have Romney ahead. Looking at their polls I keep hearing a song, "One of these things is not like the other..."

Um, didn't FOX come out with a poll last week showing Obama pulled ahead by a couple of points?

[whoman69]

Originally Posted by whoman69

So conservatives can't stand the real news so they have Fox make it up for them. Now they can't stand the polls so unskewed does it for them? Even Fox News doesn't even have Romney ahead. Looking at their polls I keep hearing a song, "One of these things is not like the other..."

Originally Posted by fan4ever

Um, didn't FOX come out with a poll last week showing Obama pulled ahead by a couple of points?

Reading comprehension.

[whoman69]

Highest probability of an Obama victory this election cycle in the latest reports, 85%. Ohio is up to 86% for Obama. Florida is over 70% to Obama for the first time. Virginia and Iowa are becoming more certain for the President.

States with an 80% probability of Obama victory 275 EC
States with a 75% probability of Obama victory 303 EC
States with a 70% probability of Obama victory 332 EC

[Comrade Crapski]

[tiptap]

Originally Posted by alnorth

I absolutely believe this, and think there's no chance at all of a severe republican "depression" (at least before Romney loses) impacting the vote. The hard-core conservatives will crawl over broken glass to vote against Obama come hell or high water no matter the odds. The problem is there just wont be enough of them because the independents and a chunk of libertarians have left the tent.

Thats why it'll be fascinating to hear Limbaugh squirm if he tries to explain that too many Republicans stayed home. Bullcrap, the Dems have always been the party of the lazy voter and the GOP the party of the motivated. He'll either have to admit he was just completely wrong about the polls being skewed, or he'll have to sell an unbelievable tale about how that wily liberal media beat them.

Republicans always have voted. And at times for the other guy. But not this time. The Democrats have the problems with turn out. So it makes no sense to talk about the effects of polls except upon the Democrats.

[whoman69]

An odd article on 538 today about an EC tie. Granted they only put that chance at .6%, but mention it because the possibility has doubled from recent scenarios. There are quite a few scenarios for a tie, but all are pretty equally unlikely. In the event of a tie it would most likely fall towards Romney as he will most likely hold a majority in more states in the House. That vote would not be without its repercussions if Obama wins the popular vote.

That said 538 gives Obama an 85% chance or better of winning in 21 different states including Ohio, Wisconsin and New Hampshire. In fact Wisconsin is over 90% despite native son Paul Ryan on the ballot. The overall chances are at 85.7%. He uses an interesting analogy to football in calling Obama ahead by a touchdown with ten minutes to play.

According to the win probability calculator at AdvancedNFLStats.com, an N.F.L. team down by field goal with 10 minutes left to play in the fourth quarter has a 34 percent probability of winning the game. A team down by a touchdown wins just 16 percent of the time.

(A technical note for sports geeks: these cases assume that the trailing team has possession of the football with first down and 10 yards to go at its own 20 yard line.)

It might be surprising that a team down by just a touchdown — a close game, by any common description of it — winds up winning so rarely. But there are a few things to consider.

First, a field goal alone won’t be enough for the team to come back. It needs something big to happen — or it needs to score at least twice.

Second, although there’s still enough time in the game for the trailing team to have multiple opportunities to score, there is also enough time for the opponents to score as well and extend their lead. So the team still has to play defense — it’s not purely a two-minute drill.

A third and often overlooked (if completely obvious) point: if the trailing team does score a clutch touchdown, it only ties the game. There are a lot of cases in which it will later lose anyway.

Right now, our forecast says that Mr. Romney has only about a 15 percent chance of winning. But that does not mean that he only has a 15 percent chance of tightening the race — or of making it come down to the wire.

[whoman69]

Right now sitting at 86.1% for Obama. Expected popular vote is 51.5-47.4 for Obama. Of the "battleground states" Obama is expected to take Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, Wisconsin, Virginia and New Hampshire with better than a 75% probability for each. Florida is near 70% for Obama while North Carolina favors Romney 62%.

I would be interested in seeing how the debate will change the numbers. Usually a debate bounce is somewhere from 2-3 points or less in favor of the challenger. Surprisingly Mondale got the biggest bounce, but was coming from so far behind it was irrelevant.

[Ebolapox]

when will we get an update on this?

[whoman69]

Originally Posted by h5n1

when will we get an update on this?

I wouldn't expect post debate polls until the weekend.

[mnchiefsguy]

Originally Posted by h5n1

when will we get an update on this?

Not sure. Last update was last night right before the debate.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

I bet it takes a day or two for all of the post debate polling data to be compiled and analysed.

[Mr. Kotter]

Originally Posted by mnchiefsguy

Not sure. Last update was last night right before the debate.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

I bet it takes a day or two for all of the post debate polling data to be compiled and analysed.

From the latest update:

The FiveThirtyEight “now-cast” — our estimate of what would happen in an election held immediately — had Mr. Romney trailing by a wider margin than three points in advance of the debate. (Instead, it put his deficit at about five points nationwide.) But our Nov. 6 forecast anticipated that the race would tighten some. It’s going to take a few days for any reaction to the debate to filter through the FiveThirtyEight model.

My own instant reaction is that Mr. Romney may have done the equivalent of kicking a field goal, perhaps not bringing the race to a draw, but setting himself up in such a way that his comeback chances have improved by a material amount. The news cycle will be busy between now and Nov. 6, with a jobs report coming out on Friday, a vice-presidential debate next week and then two more presidential debates on Oct. 16 and Oct. 22.

According to one prominent offshore gambling site, Pinnacle Sports, Mr. Obama’s odds of winning the election declined to about 73 percent after the debate from around 80 percent beforehand.