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Old 08-24-2005, 01:01 PM  
Bootlegged Bootlegged is offline
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Ooops; No housing bubble

I guess if you keep predicting something year after year, it may eventually come true. Keep your fingers crossed, AP!


Posted on Wed, Aug. 24, 2005

New-home sales reach record high in July

JEANNINE AVERSA

Associated Press


WASHINGTON - Sales of new homes shot up to a record high in July, while U.S. factories saw orders for costly manufactured goods drop by the largest amount in 18 months.

The mixed-message reports released Wednesday by the Commerce Department dramatized the vibrancy of the housing market and also the occasionally erratic pace of recovery from the 2001 recession in manufacturing.

Taken together, though, the reports still pointed to an economy that is moving ahead at a decent clip.

New-home sales in July soared to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.41 million units. That represented a 6.5 percent increase from June's pace of 1.32 million units, which had been the previous record.

In the department's second report, new bookings to U.S. factories for "durable" goods - big-ticket items expected to last at least three years - declined by 4.9 percent in July from the previous month.

It marked the biggest drop since January 2004, when durable-goods orders fell by 5.7 percent.

Some economists thought part of July's decline might reflect businesses turning a bit cautious in their buying given a toll of high energy prices that can increase their costs and squeeze their bottom lines.

The drop in orders "suggests that escalating oil prices ... might be creating skittishness on the part of business decision makers," said Clifford Waldman, economist at the Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI, a research group. On the other hand, he said, July's decline comes after nice increases in the prior three months.

In financial markets, stocks rose. The Dow Jones industrials gained 12 points and the Nasdaq was up 11 points in morning trading.

On the housing front, the performance in July surprised economists who were predicting that sales of new homes would fall in July.

By region, sales rose in the West and Northeast, but fell in the Midwest and South.

The median price of a new-home in July was $203,800, down from $212,400 a year ago. The median price is where half sell for more and half sell for less.

Existing-home sales dipped in July but still were at the third-highest level on record, a report released Tuesday showed.

While the booming housing market has been a consistent star performer for the economy in recent years, the manufacturing sector has sometimes had a bumpy ride.

The last time durable-goods orders fell was in March. Since then, manufacturers have been seeing bookings go up. In June, orders went up by 1.9 percent.

Manufacturers were hardest hit by the recession and they struggled mightily to get back to good health. Analysts believe the factory sector has shown much improvement and is in good shape, although manufacturing employment is still weak and there can be ups and downs in bookings from month to month.

The weakness seen in July hit a broad range of categories, including machinery, computers, communications equipment, electrical equipment and appliances, and airplanes. That more than offset stronger demand for automobiles and parts, and primary metals, a category that includes steel.

The decline in July was steeper than analysts were predicting. Before the release of the report, economists were forecasting a drop in durable-goods orders of around 1.2 percent.

Excluding orders for transportation equipment, which can swing widely from month to month, all other durable-goods orders fell by 3.2 percent in July. That compared with a 3.6 percent increase in June.

Shipments, a good barometer of current demand, dipped by 0.1 percent in July, after growing by 0.3 percent in June.

Businesses have had to cope with surging energy bills. Oil prices climbed to an all-time closing high of $67.10 a barrel on Aug. 12.

Wanting to make sure high energy prices don't spark a broader outbreak of inflation, the Federal Reserve earlier this month boosted short-term interest rates for a 10th time since June 2004. Another rate increase is expected at the Fed's next meeting, Sept. 20.
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Old 07-31-2007, 04:19 PM   #31
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Huge surge in mortgage foreclosures rocks U.S.

By Alex Veiga
The Associated Press
Tucson, Arizona | Published: 07.31.2007

LOS ANGELES — The number of U.S. homes facing foreclosure surged 58 percent in the first six months of the year, the latest sign of mounting problems in the mortgage industry, a data firm said Monday.

In all, 573,397 properties across the nation reported some sort of foreclosure activity in the first half of this year, including receiving notices of default, auction sale notices or being repossessed by lenders, Irvine-based RealtyTrac Inc. said.

That was 58 percent higher than the 363,672 properties in the first six months of 2006 and 32 percent higher than the 433,504 in the last six months of 2006.

"We could easily surpass 2 million foreclosure filings by the end of the year, which would represent a year-over-year increase of over 65 percent," said James J. Saccaciom, RealtyTrac's chief executive officer.

California, Florida, Texas and Ohio were among the states with the highest number of homes receiving foreclosure-related notices, the firm said.

Arizona was among the top 10 states with the highest spikes in foreclosures. Foreclosures were up 74 percent from the previous six months and 128 percent from the first six months of 2006, RealtyTrac said. The firm found there were 27,515 foreclosure filings, or one for every 92 households, in the first six months of the year.

In the RealtyTrac report, California led the nation in foreclosure filings and the number of homes receiving notices.

A total of 104,572 properties in the state received notices of default or other foreclosure notices — more than double the year-ago total and an increase of 80 percent from the previous six months, the firm said.

RealtyTrac said 925,986 foreclosure filings were sent to homeowners during the first half of the year. Some of those filings targeted the same property, in part because owners had more than one mortgage.

That figure was up 56 percent from the year-ago period and up 39 percent from the last six months of 2006, the firm said.

Notices of default, the first step in the foreclosure process, accounted for the largest slice of filings during the most recent period — a total of 416,937.

The national foreclosure rate through the end of June was one filing for every 134 U.S. households, the company said.

In the past, RealtyTrac released the total number of foreclosure notices issued and did not say if a single property received more than one notice. The company is now breaking out the exact property count.

In recent months, the mortgage industry has been rocked by defaults and foreclosures, primarily driven by borrowers with subprime loans and adjustable-rate mortgages.

Last week, Calabasas, Calif.-based Countrywide Financial Corp., one of the biggest mortgage lenders in the United States, said even some of the most creditworthy borrowers were having trouble making their mortgage payments.

Lagging home sales and flat or decreasing home prices have made it more difficult for homeowners who fall behind on payments to sell their homes and clear the debt, spurring the rise in foreclosure activity.

In the report, Florida was the No. 2 state for homes in some stage of foreclosure, with a total of 64,250, an increase of 77 percent year over year and up 41 percent from the last six months of 2006.

Ohio ranked third with 44,594 homes, followed by Texas with 41,592 and Michigan's 40,175, the firm said.

Nevada, Colorado and California had the highest foreclosure rates, given the total number of households.
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Old 07-31-2007, 04:27 PM   #32
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Shouldn't that report be a trailing indicator that there was actually just a huge surge in people buying houses they couldn't afford? Partially because of shadebone lenders who would sell a castle to a crackhead?
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Old 07-31-2007, 04:27 PM   #33
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Houses foreclosing are at a 20 year high here. Houses for sale all over the place. Just because some are moving doesn't provide proof that there is not a bubble. Interest only loans are the debil.
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Old 07-31-2007, 04:40 PM   #34
jAZ jAZ is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cochise
Shouldn't that report be a trailing indicator that there was actually just a huge surge in people buying houses they couldn't afford?
That's what everyone was saying at the time. Depsite what Lattimer was saying.
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Old 08-01-2007, 07:43 AM   #35
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Ok you lost me here, the medium price of a new home dropped around 1% over the past year. And this caused you to sell a rental property.

What does the price of new housing have to do with rental property?

The only thing that would affect your investment in rental property is if the market is over built with your segment of rental space and the price is being pushed down.

If anything a bust in the new home market would cause more people to rent driving up the rental price and in turn your return on your investment.

Also even if your property value was to decline, you are not hurt as long as you are making a decent return on your investment.


Rebrian,

Theres an old saying thats been around along time.

"Greed and Fear cause people to do dumb things with there money"
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Old 04-03-2010, 09:49 AM   #36
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You're crazy. I can't keep up with demand right now, and there is no end in sight.
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Old 10-02-2012, 07:10 PM   #37
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Here's a fun thread of people being wrong on the Housing Bubble...
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Old 10-02-2012, 07:17 PM   #38
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Old 10-03-2012, 12:13 AM   #39
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Old 10-03-2012, 11:58 AM   #40
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Old 10-03-2012, 12:14 PM   #41
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Here's a fun thread of people being wrong on the Housing Bubble...

Yes...


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I pretty much agree... I was hoping to get into the market earlier on a rental, but I'm going to wait for prices to go down. They're outrageous right now. Luckily, there is a lot of commercial and public growth in my area, so I'm not too worried about my current house value.


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Old 10-03-2012, 12:18 PM   #42
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Old 10-03-2012, 02:35 PM   #43
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Yes...


I don't see the gotcha. I agreed that I wouldn't buy a house in the over-inflated market, and expected prices to go down. The growth in my area did protect my house prices from dropping out the bottom.
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Old 10-03-2012, 03:40 PM   #44
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Old 10-03-2012, 03:54 PM   #45
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Yes...






I just bought a house...on the verge of another bubble
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