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Old 09-26-2012, 09:12 PM  
cdcox cdcox is offline
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Playoff and Draft Pick Odds, 2012

nfl-forecast.com is back for another season.

After Week 3
As of the moment, the Chiefs odds of making the playoffs are 10%.

The distribution of potential wins and draft picks will be shown in my next post.

Unfortunately, this season is shaping up to be a classic case of being Piolied by the Cassel maneuver.

Midway through Week 12

We have an 81% chance of getting the overall #1 pick.

We can afford to win a game, and in all likelihood, still take the number one overall pick. For example, if we win one game and Jacksonville loses out, we will still get the overall #1 pick 99% of the time. If we beat Carolina and they lose out, we still get the #1 pick 75% of the time.

The Chiefs are eliminated from the playoffs.

Midway through week 13

As of now odds of getting the #1 draft pick:

KC 55%
Jax 24%
Oakland 15%
Philly 4%
Field 2%

Midway through week 14

KC 55%
Jax 31%
Oakland 14%
Only 3 with decent odds.

Midway through week 15

KC 70%
Jac 30%
Oakland <<1%

KC guaranteed a top 3 spot

Midway through week 16

KC 92%
Jax 8%

Only way we don't get it is if we beat Denver and Jax loses to TN (barring ties).

Last edited by cdcox; 12-23-2012 at 03:26 PM..
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Old 10-04-2012, 12:52 PM   #46
L.A. Chieffan L.A. Chieffan is offline
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5% chance isn't bad. At least it's not zero.
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L.A. Chieffan is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.L.A. Chieffan is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.L.A. Chieffan is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.L.A. Chieffan is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.L.A. Chieffan is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.L.A. Chieffan is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.L.A. Chieffan is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.L.A. Chieffan is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.L.A. Chieffan is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.L.A. Chieffan is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.L.A. Chieffan is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.
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Old 10-04-2012, 12:53 PM   #47
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5% chance isn't bad. At least it's not zero.
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Old 10-04-2012, 12:57 PM   #48
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I don't see 5 games on our schedule we can win.
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Old 10-04-2012, 12:57 PM   #49
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5% chance isn't bad. At least it's not zero.
It should be zero, cause this team has no chance.
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Old 10-04-2012, 01:03 PM   #50
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Week five and its all over huh? Are you guys French?
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Old 10-04-2012, 01:04 PM   #51
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Originally Posted by Matt Cassel's Love Child View Post
Week five and its all over huh? Are you guys French?
Yes. We're currently storming the Bastille.
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Old 10-04-2012, 01:05 PM   #52
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Originally Posted by Cassel's Reckoning View Post
Calculators work on logic, and Pioli's brain is illogical.
You spelled brilliant wrong.
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Old 10-04-2012, 01:12 PM   #53
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This looks a lot like he's just publishing last year's results again.
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Old 10-04-2012, 01:12 PM   #54
L.A. Chieffan L.A. Chieffan is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cassel's Reckoning View Post
Yes. We're currently storming the Bastille.
More like letting a bunch of krauts roll into town and take your three women
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Old 10-04-2012, 03:48 PM
Chief Roundup
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Old 10-09-2012, 12:53 AM   #55
Count Alex's Losses Count Alex's Losses is online now
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Out look not good.






Outlook very good!




Nfl-forecast.com gives middle finger to Pioli

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Old 10-09-2012, 12:56 AM   #56
Rausch Rausch is offline
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I don't think he's gonna have a choice. The fanbase is teetering on revolt.

It's a DAILY topic of discussion on both 610 and 810 and they actually are more representative of the "average" fan than we are.
He doesn't care. He's right. He knows better. His way will turn things around...
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Old 10-09-2012, 12:58 AM   #57
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Should get slightly more favorable draft choice wise after the new generic win percetanges (power ratings) get added on T or W.
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Old 10-09-2012, 01:01 AM   #58
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Tennessee at even 11% is shocking... they've been annihilated almost every week. Without even looking I'd guess they lead the league in point differential. I believe they were the first team ever to give up over 30 points the first 5 weeks of a season.
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Old 10-09-2012, 01:07 AM   #59
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Tennessee at even 11% is shocking... they've been annihilated almost every week. Without even looking I'd guess they lead the league in point differential. I believe they were the first team ever to give up over 30 points the first 5 weeks of a season.
Going into this week their generic win percentage was 48%, which is just less than average. Either their stats will start tanking (which would drop their GWP) or they will win a few games.
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Old 10-15-2012, 12:01 AM   #60
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Unofficially, we're up to 23% chance of getting the overall #1. NO is in front of us, but I think most people think they aren't serious contenders for that position. This is shaping up nicely.
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