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Old 10-05-2012, 08:17 AM  
Chiefshrink Chiefshrink is offline
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Obama's October surprise !!!!

7.8% unemployment rate

No wonder he doesn't have to do well in these debates
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Old 10-05-2012, 02:16 PM   #61
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Originally Posted by J Diddy View Post
It was no small hole to dig out of. Fact of the matter is that the economy is coming back and jobs are too. That proves that his policies are working.
We are not going to agree on this...that proves shit.
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Old 10-05-2012, 02:25 PM   #62
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Originally Posted by J Diddy View Post
It was no small hole to dig out of. Fact of the matter is that the economy is coming back and jobs are too. That proves that his policies are working.
One piece of data, the household survey points to improvement. Every other piece of data points in the other direction. What are the chances that the household survey data is the correct data? It'll be revised.
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Old 10-05-2012, 03:06 PM   #63
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ShadowStats just exposed this BS unemployment number.
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Old 10-05-2012, 03:11 PM   #64
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Originally Posted by Stewie View Post
ShadowStats just exposed this BS unemployment number.
Stewie, you know this will bring on a raid by the little mexican economics guerrilla fighter don't you?
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Old 10-05-2012, 03:21 PM   #65
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Originally Posted by suzzer99 View Post
Republican PR machine going full conspiritard on this one. I just wish they'd make up their minds on whether these numbers are fake great numbers, or real numbers that aren't actually that good. Get your talking points aligned guys.
I dont want to believe the PR, so help me understand this. In August, the economy gained more jobs than September and the unemployment rate went up. This month the unemployment rate dropped .4 percent while gaining less jobs. Can you explain that for me? Somehow, that doesnt add up.
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Old 10-05-2012, 05:14 PM   #66
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Originally Posted by cosmo20002 View Post
The number could, of course, be wrong. The household survey is, well, a survey, which means itís open to error. But the internals back it up. The number saying they had jobs increased by about 800,000. That seems high, but itís counting 582,000 who say they got part-time jobs.
I saw the % today in headlines and wondered WTF.

Forward.
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Old 10-05-2012, 05:34 PM   #67
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Originally Posted by tk13 View Post
I'm not a mentally ill person suggesting the Department of Labor is cooking the books. I mean that seriously, this is pretty much the equivalent of saying the government caused the Joplin tornado.
Or the Katrina hurricane...
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Old 10-05-2012, 05:41 PM   #68
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How do you survey enough people that you get a number of 582,000 out of how many surveyed? Survey by phone, mail, what? Just using the number they gave of 582,000 would require getting back information from over the course of a year, almost 1600 a day. I'm sure this "survey" wasn't over a full year either.
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Old 10-05-2012, 06:20 PM   #69
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Originally Posted by stonedstooge View Post
How do you survey enough people that you get a number of 582,000 out of how many surveyed? Survey by phone, mail, what? Just using the number they gave of 582,000 would require getting back information from over the course of a year, almost 1600 a day. I'm sure this "survey" wasn't over a full year either.
extrapolation
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Old 10-05-2012, 06:49 PM   #70
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Originally Posted by jjjayb View Post
One piece of data, the household survey points to improvement. Every other piece of data points in the other direction. What are the chances that the household survey data is the correct data? It'll be revised.
The trend is what matters with the unemployment series. The trend has been improving. It will probably stall out some going into year end but the trend in unemployment has been better for a decent amount of time
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Old 10-05-2012, 06:53 PM   #71
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Originally Posted by HonestChieffan View Post
Stewie, you know this will bring on a raid by the little mexican economics guerrilla fighter don't you?
No, the guy who does shadow stats does good work. I think his numbers are slightly overstated and I think the govenment's are a little understated. The real number is between the two.

Keep being a dumb ass though.
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Old 10-05-2012, 07:06 PM   #72
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Originally Posted by KC native View Post
No, the guy who does shadow stats does good work. I think his numbers are slightly overstated and I think the govenment's are a little understated. The real number is between the two.

Keep being a dumb ass though.
SGS does do good work, surprised you would say that though, since they show consistently that the "real" unemployment rate has NOT turned the corner and in fact is still increasing. My take is that the "accurate" analysis lies between the U6 and SGS numbers. Which would be a pretty much stagnant rate.



Regarding the recent numbers.. it's a blow to Romney for ONE reason... timing... these numbers WILL get adjusted.. or the November numbers will reflect the difference in reality. The problem is that with all the early voting and people simply making up their minds... I doubt the true numbers will get reported in time to make a difference.

I'd say that Romney had a legit shot at taking a solid lead and extending it with 2 more strong debates... this is going to seriously bite into that.
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Old 10-05-2012, 09:34 PM   #73
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I'd say that Romney had a legit shot at taking a solid lead and extending it with 2 more strong debates... this is going to seriously bite into that.
I will side with the majority of "We The People" that we don't buy into these numbers and are much smarter than Obama thinks we are. The country I believe has been onto to Barry for sometime now and 7.8 % hasn't reduced the price of gas still at 3.80 a gal, food on our tables is still 30-40% higher, and millions are still 'underemployed' thus this 7.8% still doesn't FIX SH** ! As you know, it's all about what have you done for me lately Barry ?? Except lie to us !!

These numbers will do very little IMHO for Barry on election day However, with that said I damn guarantee you since we know these polls are severely skewed for Obama in general by the Marxist Media and now with this phoney 7.8% rate being touted at every turn until election day, the polls now will drastically be manipulated even worse to swing back for Obama. And then the next jobs report on Nov 2nd right before election day Chicago Barry will have the rate go from 7.8 to 7.5. Count on it !!

But it won't help
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Old 10-05-2012, 10:26 PM   #74
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These numbers will do very little IMHO for Barry on election day However, with that said I damn guarantee you since we know these polls are severely skewed for Obama in general by the Marxist Media and now with this phoney 7.8% rate being touted at every turn until election day, the polls now will drastically be manipulated even worse to swing back for Obama. And then the next jobs report on Nov 2nd right before election day Chicago Barry will have the rate go from 7.8 to 7.5. Count on it !!
You're probably right. Obama's margin of victory will still probably be around 100 electoral votes.
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Old 10-06-2012, 06:41 AM   #75
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The trend is what matters with the unemployment series. The trend has been improving. It will probably stall out some going into year end but the trend in unemployment has been better for a decent amount of time
But the trend has not shown that big of a jump. Actually, it hasn't shown that kind of jump in almost 30 years. Yet, no other indicator points to a sudden jump. Every other indicator shows that we are still treading water. \

Although no other indicator shows a jump, this phone survey of 60,000 houeholds extrapolates to a jump unseen in almost 30 years. My question would be if the survey methodology changed. Have they changed the questions asked? Have they changed how the sampling is done? If any other signs of our economy pointed to this, then great. But when 2 and 2 don't equal 4, you should probably question the results.

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