Elections Debate Bounce - Page 2

Great Expectations · 10-05-2012, 11:25 AM

For those of you who closely follow the polls what kind of bounce did Romney get from the debate? What does that do to his chances of winning the general election?

Taco John · 10-05-2012, 08:16 PM

Prediction markets say Obama is still the favorite right now, but he lost serious ground. He went from being an 80% favorite to being only a 60%. One more performance like that, and the race will be 50/50.

RINGLEADER · 10-07-2012, 11:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chiefqueen

Whatever bounce there is will be back to where it was on Tuesday or Wednesday of next week based on today's unemployment report.

The debate outcome may keep in Romney on Ohio TV 7 to 10 days longer (before the debate there were threads on Free Republic that Romney was probably going to "pull out" of Ohio towards the end of next week. If/When Romney pulls out of Ohio this election is OVER) but, based on today's jobless report I anticipate Obama regaining his pre-debate lead about the time of the second debate.

You really think a 7.8% unemployment rate is going to win hearts and minds? The rate with the same employment participation as 2008 would be over 11% (but, thankfully, we have a lot more people on disability and unemployment so they're not counted).

Funny how 8 years ago the Dems were bemoaning Bush because the rate wasn't below 5%, but now being at 7.8% is just mutherfuggin' great news!

**patteeu** · 10-08-2012, 09:10 AM

Romney won't get any bounce out of the debate. It's not a bounce when it's permanent.

#freighttrain

qabbaan · 10-08-2012, 10:29 AM

I would expect that Romney should have gotten a fundraising bounce after that performance as well.

**mlyonsd** · 10-08-2012, 10:40 AM

I predict our liberal brethren will soon be telling us polls don't matter.

**BigRedChief** · 10-08-2012, 10:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mlyonsd

I predict our liberal brethren will soon be telling us polls don't matter.

No thats Republicans saying they are all BS. No matter what happens, I expect a 51%/49% vote at the end.Oct. 7: National Polls Show Signs of Settling

By NATE SILVER

Mitt Romney remains in a considerably stronger polling position than he was before last Wednesday’s debate in Denver. But the polls released on Sunday did not tell quite as optimistic a story for him as those in the debate’s immediate aftermath.

The four national tracking polls as published on Sunday were largely unchanged from their Saturday releases. Mr. Romney maintained a 2-point lead in the Rasmussen Reports tracking poll, but President Obama’s lead held at 2 points in an online poll published by Ipsos and at 3 points in the Gallup tracking poll. In the RAND Corporation’s online tracking poll, which lists its results to the decimal place, Mr. Obama’s lead declined incrementally, to 3.9 percentage points from 4.4 on Saturday.

My effort to do that is reflected in the chart below. I’ve compared the most recent reading in each poll to the average result that the poll showed in the period between the Democratic convention and the Denver debate. I’ve also listed the approximate share of interviews in each poll that post-dated the debate.

continued here:
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...ng/#more-35662

Donger · 10-08-2012, 10:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

No thats Republicans saying they are all BS. No matter what happens, I expect a 51%/49% vote at the end.Oct. 7: National Polls Show Signs of Settling

By NATE SILVER

Mitt Romney remains in a considerably stronger polling position than he was before last Wednesday’s debate in Denver. But the polls released on Sunday did not tell quite as optimistic a story for him as those in the debate’s immediate aftermath.

The four national tracking polls as published on Sunday were largely unchanged from their Saturday releases. Mr. Romney maintained a 2-point lead in the Rasmussen Reports tracking poll, but President Obama’s lead held at 2 points in an online poll published by Ipsos and at 3 points in the Gallup tracking poll. In the RAND Corporation’s online tracking poll, which lists its results to the decimal place, Mr. Obama’s lead declined incrementally, to 3.9 percentage points from 4.4 on Saturday.

My effort to do that is reflected in the chart below. I’ve compared the most recent reading in each poll to the average result that the poll showed in the period between the Democratic convention and the Denver debate. I’ve also listed the approximate share of interviews in each poll that post-dated the debate.

continued here:
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...ng/#more-35662

I smell fear.

**BigRedChief** · 10-08-2012, 10:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Donger

I smell fear.

When Kerry destroyed Bush in the first 2004 debate was their fear among Republicans?

Donger · 10-08-2012, 10:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

When Kerry destroyed Bush in the first 2004 debate was their fear among Republicans?

Of John Kerry? No. Then again, Romney is no John Kerry.

qabbaan · 10-08-2012, 10:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

When Kerry destroyed Bush in the first 2004 debate was their fear among Republicans?

Keep telling yourself that.

Buzz_TinBalls · 10-08-2012, 10:58 AM

bullshit doesn't bounce

**BigRedChief** · 10-08-2012, 11:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by qabbaan

Keep telling yourself that.

JFC. what exactly am I telling myself?

qabbaan · 10-08-2012, 11:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

JFC. what exactly am I telling myself?

That there is no chance the hare can lose this.

**Saul Good** · 10-08-2012, 11:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

When Kerry destroyed Bush in the first 2004 debate was their fear among Republicans?

There was from this Republican.

**BigRedChief** · 10-08-2012, 11:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by qabbaan

That there is no chance the hare can lose this.

Where did I say this?

10-05-2012, 11:25 AM
Great Expectations Veteran Join Date: Dec 2008 Location: Joplin, MO Casino cash: $70074	Debate Bounce For those of you who closely follow the polls what kind of bounce did Romney get from the debate? What does that do to his chances of winning the general election?
Posts: 2,349

10-05-2012, 08:16 PM	#16
Taco John 12on Paul Join Date: Jun 2001 Casino cash: $10085272	Prediction markets say Obama is still the favorite right now, but he lost serious ground. He went from being an 80% favorite to being only a 60%. One more performance like that, and the race will be 50/50. __________________ Ehyeh asher ehyeh.
Posts: 49,410

10-08-2012, 09:10 AM	#18
patteeu The 23rd Pillar Join Date: Sep 2002 Casino cash: $421359	Romney won't get any bounce out of the debate. It's not a bounce when it's permanent. #freighttrain __________________ Obamacare’s fix for an American health care system that the federal government long ago broke, is to give the federal government far more power over American health care; that its solution to escalating health costs is to mandate greater health benefits (and, hence, higher costs); and that its solution to the pricey overreliance on pre-paid health plans — offered by insurance companies in lieu of real insurance — is to have the government require Americans to buy those pre-paid health plans under penalty of law.
Posts: 67,822

10-08-2012, 10:29 AM	#19
qabbaan Veteran Join Date: Jan 2012 Casino cash: $24150	I would expect that Romney should have gotten a fundraising bounce after that performance as well.
Posts: 2,973

10-08-2012, 10:40 AM	#20
mlyonsd Supporter Join Date: Aug 2000 Location: Spink, SD Casino cash: $30341	I predict our liberal brethren will soon be telling us polls don't matter.
Posts: 22,366

10-08-2012, 10:58 AM	#26
Buzz_TinBalls So Busted Join Date: Jan 2011 Location: kcmo Casino cash: $10999323	bullshit doesn't bounce __________________
Posts: 6,975

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