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Old 10-05-2012, 11:25 AM  
Great Expectations Great Expectations is offline
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Debate Bounce
For those of you who closely follow the polls what kind of bounce did Romney get from the debate? What does that do to his chances of winning the general election?
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Old 10-05-2012, 08:16 PM   #16
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Prediction markets say Obama is still the favorite right now, but he lost serious ground. He went from being an 80% favorite to being only a 60%. One more performance like that, and the race will be 50/50.
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Old 10-07-2012, 11:57 PM   #17
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Originally Posted by chiefqueen View Post
Whatever bounce there is will be back to where it was on Tuesday or Wednesday of next week based on today's unemployment report.

The debate outcome may keep in Romney on Ohio TV 7 to 10 days longer (before the debate there were threads on Free Republic that Romney was probably going to "pull out" of Ohio towards the end of next week. If/When Romney pulls out of Ohio this election is OVER) but, based on today's jobless report I anticipate Obama regaining his pre-debate lead about the time of the second debate.
You really think a 7.8% unemployment rate is going to win hearts and minds? The rate with the same employment participation as 2008 would be over 11% (but, thankfully, we have a lot more people on disability and unemployment so they're not counted).

Funny how 8 years ago the Dems were bemoaning Bush because the rate wasn't below 5%, but now being at 7.8% is just mutherfuggin' great news!
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Old 10-08-2012, 09:10 AM   #18
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Romney won't get any bounce out of the debate. It's not a bounce when it's permanent.

#freighttrain
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Old 10-08-2012, 10:29 AM   #19
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I would expect that Romney should have gotten a fundraising bounce after that performance as well.
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Old 10-08-2012, 10:40 AM   #20
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I predict our liberal brethren will soon be telling us polls don't matter.
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Old 10-08-2012, 10:48 AM   #21
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I predict our liberal brethren will soon be telling us polls don't matter.
No thats Republicans saying they are all BS. No matter what happens, I expect a 51%/49% vote at the end.Oct. 7: National Polls Show Signs of Settling
By NATE SILVER

Mitt Romney remains in a considerably stronger polling position than he was before last Wednesday’s debate in Denver. But the polls released on Sunday did not tell quite as optimistic a story for him as those in the debate’s immediate aftermath.

The four national tracking polls as published on Sunday were largely unchanged from their Saturday releases. Mr. Romney maintained a 2-point lead in the Rasmussen Reports tracking poll, but President Obama’s lead held at 2 points in an online poll published by Ipsos and at 3 points in the Gallup tracking poll. In the RAND Corporation’s online tracking poll, which lists its results to the decimal place, Mr. Obama’s lead declined incrementally, to 3.9 percentage points from 4.4 on Saturday.

My effort to do that is reflected in the chart below. I’ve compared the most recent reading in each poll to the average result that the poll showed in the period between the Democratic convention and the Denver debate. I’ve also listed the approximate share of interviews in each poll that post-dated the debate.

continued here:
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...ng/#more-35662
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Old 10-08-2012, 10:49 AM   #22
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Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
No thats Republicans saying they are all BS. No matter what happens, I expect a 51%/49% vote at the end.Oct. 7: National Polls Show Signs of Settling
By NATE SILVER

Mitt Romney remains in a considerably stronger polling position than he was before last Wednesday’s debate in Denver. But the polls released on Sunday did not tell quite as optimistic a story for him as those in the debate’s immediate aftermath.

The four national tracking polls as published on Sunday were largely unchanged from their Saturday releases. Mr. Romney maintained a 2-point lead in the Rasmussen Reports tracking poll, but President Obama’s lead held at 2 points in an online poll published by Ipsos and at 3 points in the Gallup tracking poll. In the RAND Corporation’s online tracking poll, which lists its results to the decimal place, Mr. Obama’s lead declined incrementally, to 3.9 percentage points from 4.4 on Saturday.

My effort to do that is reflected in the chart below. I’ve compared the most recent reading in each poll to the average result that the poll showed in the period between the Democratic convention and the Denver debate. I’ve also listed the approximate share of interviews in each poll that post-dated the debate.

continued here:
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...ng/#more-35662
I smell fear.
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Old 10-08-2012, 10:53 AM   #23
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I smell fear.
When Kerry destroyed Bush in the first 2004 debate was their fear among Republicans?
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Old 10-08-2012, 10:57 AM   #24
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When Kerry destroyed Bush in the first 2004 debate was their fear among Republicans?
Of John Kerry? No. Then again, Romney is no John Kerry.
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Old 10-08-2012, 10:58 AM   #25
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When Kerry destroyed Bush in the first 2004 debate was their fear among Republicans?
Keep telling yourself that.
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Old 10-08-2012, 10:58 AM   #26
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bullshit doesn't bounce
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Old 10-08-2012, 11:02 AM   #27
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Keep telling yourself that.
JFC. what exactly am I telling myself?
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Old 10-08-2012, 11:05 AM   #28
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JFC. what exactly am I telling myself?
That there is no chance the hare can lose this.
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Old 10-08-2012, 11:09 AM   #29
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When Kerry destroyed Bush in the first 2004 debate was their fear among Republicans?
There was from this Republican.
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Old 10-08-2012, 11:16 AM   #30
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That there is no chance the hare can lose this.
Where did I say this?
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