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Old 10-05-2012, 12:25 PM  
Great Expectations Great Expectations is online now
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Debate Bounce

For those of you who closely follow the polls what kind of bounce did Romney get from the debate? What does that do to his chances of winning the general election?
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Old 10-08-2012, 01:02 PM   #31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
When Kerry destroyed Bush in the first 2004 debate was their fear among Republicans?
Clinging to a lifeline made of pure hope, I see.

Can you describe Obama's magnificent robes in detail for those of us who can't see them?
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Old 10-08-2012, 01:07 PM   #32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
Clinging to a lifeline made of pure hope, I see.

Can you describe Obama's magnificent robes in detail for those of us who can't see them?
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Old 10-08-2012, 01:28 PM   #33
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Originally Posted by thecoffeeguy View Post
Says who? you?
Says the same people who loved the polls 2 weeks ago.
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Old 10-08-2012, 01:29 PM   #34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alnorth View Post
We Ask America is a joke. They are brand-new in 2012 so no history, they have a pro-GOP house effect that exceeds even Rasmussen, and their performance in predicting the Scott Walker recall election was pathetic.

Rasmussen used to be good, but they were utterly pathetic in 2010, primarily because they don't poll cell phones and many more people have cut their land line cord today than 4 years ago. Cell phone-only users tend to skew Democrat. Rasmussen is, and will continue to be, a pathetic joke until they start calling cell phones.

This isn't uninformed opinion, the fact that these two pollsters suck is based on data.
Your accusations on their methodology, what is this based on?
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Old 10-08-2012, 01:31 PM   #35
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Originally Posted by Taco John View Post
Prediction markets say Obama is still the favorite right now, but he lost serious ground. He went from being an 80% favorite to being only a 60%. One more performance like that, and the race will be 50/50.
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Old 10-08-2012, 01:33 PM   #36
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Quote:
Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
Clinging to a lifeline made of pure hope, I see.

Can you describe Obama's magnificent robes in detail for those of us who can't see them?
"Hope is not an plan"
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Old 10-08-2012, 02:05 PM   #37
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I defer to Nate Silver at all times.

That said, it looks like the race closed from around 5 points to around a point and a half.

That's really, really good for Romney.

His electoral math, however, is still damning. The north is still out of reach. Virginia is still polling well for Obama, as is Colorado. I live in Missouri and Obama is still raining ads on us here.

Florida, however, has flipped to Romney's column, and Ohio's back to being a toss up.

We'll see if this is Romney's nadir or if this can be sustained.
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Old 10-08-2012, 02:11 PM   #38
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
I defer to Nate Silver at all times.

That said, it looks like the race closed from around 5 points to around a point and a half.

That's really, really good for Romney.

His electoral math, however, is still damning. The north is still out of reach. Virginia is still polling well for Obama, as is Colorado. I live in Missouri and Obama is still raining ads on us here.

Florida, however, has flipped to Romney's column, and Ohio's back to being a toss up.

We'll see if this is Romney's nadir or if this can be sustained.
How do you explain the differences between the 538 electoral map and Realclearpolitics'? It seems like Nate's electoral map needs updating.
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Old 10-08-2012, 03:17 PM   #39
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RCP has Obama winning the electoral college.
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Old 10-08-2012, 03:33 PM   #40
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
RCP has Obama winning the electoral college.
I don't see that. Right now, they have it as 251 Obama and 181 Romney. 270 are needed for victory.

Like I said, 538 seems unwilling to update states leaning, such as Florida, to Romney's likely column.
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Old 10-08-2012, 03:40 PM   #41
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Originally Posted by Donger View Post
I don't see that. Right now, they have it as 251 Obama and 181 Romney. 270 are needed for victory.

Like I said, 538 seems unwilling to update states leaning, such as Florida, to Romney's likely column.
Romney should have won Florida easily. But, Romney is not going to win Florida. Picking Ryan guaranteed that outcome. Obama is going to flood the airwaves with medicare ads.
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Old 10-08-2012, 03:45 PM   #42
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Romney should have won Florida easily. But, Romney is not going to win Florida. Picking Ryan guaranteed that outcome. Obama is going to flood the airwaves with medicare ads.
Noted for future reference.

That doesn't explain why 538 still has Florida leaning Obama and counting it to Obama's electoral tally (and a few other critical states) when Florida is now tied.

If Silver is a number-cruncher, he seems to be ignoring this fact for some reason.
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Old 10-08-2012, 03:53 PM   #43
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Originally Posted by Donger View Post
Noted for future reference.

That doesn't explain why 538 still has Florida leaning Obama and counting it to Obama's electoral tally (and a few other critical states) when Florida is now tied.

If Silver is a number-cruncher, he seems to be ignoring this fact for some reason.
Who know's? I don't think Nate publishes every ingredient of what the sauce is made of. But, isn't Silver's #'s are partly based on future events. Everyone knows that Obama is saving money to blanket Florida with medicare ads before the election.
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Old 10-08-2012, 03:59 PM   #44
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Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
Who know's? I don't think Nate publishes every ingredient of what the sauce is made of. But, isn't Silver's #'s are partly based on future events. Everyone knows that Obama is saving money to blanket Florida with medicare ads before the election.
I wonder if Silver is being given Obama's internal polling information again?

Anyway, it seems silly that he apparently doesn't take into consideration the toss-up category. Florida, Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, NC and Virginia sure don't seem like they should be given to either candidate at this point.
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Old 10-08-2012, 04:00 PM   #45
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Whoa. The Pew poll is interesting.
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