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Old 10-05-2012, 11:25 AM  
Great Expectations Great Expectations is offline
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Debate Bounce

For those of you who closely follow the polls what kind of bounce did Romney get from the debate? What does that do to his chances of winning the general election?
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Old 10-08-2012, 03:03 PM   #46
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Debate #2 should make this all the more interesting.
Don't make obama Angry Black Man. You wouldn't like him when he's Angry Black Man.
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Old 10-08-2012, 03:03 PM   #47
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
I defer to Nate Silver at all times.

That said, it looks like the race closed from around 5 points to around a point and a half.

That's really, really good for Romney.

His electoral math, however, is still damning. The north is still out of reach. Virginia is still polling well for Obama, as is Colorado. I live in Missouri and Obama is still raining ads on us here.

Florida, however, has flipped to Romney's column, and Ohio's back to being a toss up.

We'll see if this is Romney's nadir or if this can be sustained.

We'll see if the 12-point swing from Pew, combined with the 5-point swings in Rasmussen and Gallup, has any impact on Nate Silver's analysis. I'm sure Obama's chances will probably go from 83% to 87% or some other such nonsense.
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Old 10-08-2012, 03:08 PM   #48
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Donger View Post
Whoa. The Pew poll is interesting.
They're a GOP firm...

They're track record is horrible...

They're running out of excuses...

This is the byproduct of basing your campaign on making the other guy a monster. When he shows up without horns the only place you have to go is "he's a liar." All Romney has to do is shame Obama to his face for this tactic at the next debate and ask why he has to resort to name-calling. That 60-second exchange will wipe out $250,000,000 in negative advertising and inoculate against future attacks. I said this election would be won on the first debate and it's looking to be the case if you want to believe the polls and increase in enthusiasm and ballot requests coming from the GOP side of the ledger.

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Old 10-08-2012, 03:38 PM   #49
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Originally Posted by RINGLEADER View Post
We'll see if the 12-point swing from Pew, combined with the 5-point swings in Rasmussen and Gallup, has any impact on Nate Silver's analysis. I'm sure Obama's chances will probably go from 83% to 87% or some other such nonsense.
There is a lot here that doesn't make any sense, if you believed the pre-debate polls. Among others:

Supposedly, debates don't matter very much in modern times. So why the huge swing?

Supposedly, the number of undecideds was minuscule. So why the huge swing?

Our resident experts said Ohio was out of play and Florida was nearly so. So why the huge swing?


But most interesting to me: the turnout models being used by pollsters which heavily favored Democrats were said to be solid projections of turnout for Obama, that is to say, that we should expect turnout around 2008 levels for democrats.

So why the huge swing? Did they change the turnout models? Was Romney always ahead, but the debate created a few more percentage points, enough to bleed into even rosy turnout models?

What's the truth here?
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Old 10-08-2012, 03:42 PM   #50
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RINGLEADER View Post
They're a GOP firm...

They're track record is horrible...

They're running out of excuses...

This is the byproduct of basing your campaign on making the other guy a monster. When he shows up without horns the only place you have to go is "he's a liar." All Romney has to do is shame Obama to his face for this tactic at the next debate and ask why he has to resort to name-calling. That 60-second exchange will wipe out $250,000,000 in negative advertising and inoculate against future attacks. I said this election would be won on the first debate and it's looking to be the case if you want to believe the polls and increase in enthusiasm and ballot requests coming from the GOP side of the ledger.
I thought almost all polls were skewed/biased to the Dems?

Which is it? Are these new polls skewed to the Dems now? Are they no longer skewed/biased? Or are they still skewed/biased and Romney is on track to win a landslide election when you unskew the polls?
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Old 10-08-2012, 03:50 PM   #51
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Another thing - what of this Battleground poll which has Romney up by 16 points among independent voters? How could Obama win without them?

How can we reconcile this with the previous conventional wisdom that the election was safe for Obama, when he only won independent voters 52-48 against McCain?
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Old 10-08-2012, 04:32 PM   #52
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
I thought almost all polls were skewed/biased to the Dems?

Which is it? Are these new polls skewed to the Dems now? Are they no longer skewed/biased? Or are they still skewed/biased and Romney is on track to win a landslide election when you unskew the polls?


Reagan/Carter all over again.
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Old 10-08-2012, 05:29 PM   #53
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RINGLEADER View Post
This is the byproduct of basing your campaign on making the other guy a monster. When he shows up without horns the only place you have to go is "he's a liar." All Romney has to do is shame Obama to his face for this tactic at the next debate and ask why he has to resort to name-calling. That 60-second exchange will wipe out $250,000,000 in negative advertising and inoculate against future attacks. I said this election would be won on the first debate and it's looking to be the case if you want to believe the polls and increase in enthusiasm and ballot requests coming from the GOP side of the ledger.
What, exactly is Romney's campaign about except "Obama sucks"?
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Old 10-08-2012, 06:12 PM   #54
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Quote:
Originally Posted by banyon View Post
What, exactly is Romney's campaign about except "Obama sucks"?
The economy son, pay attention
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Old 10-08-2012, 06:17 PM   #55
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Quote:
Originally Posted by banyon View Post
What, exactly is Romney's campaign about except "Obama sucks"?
Oh my God, the sad irony of an obama supporter criticizing the "I'm not him" tactic.

Which, by the way, Romney is not doing. Pay attention to the debates, see how many areas Romney makes obama look like a boy standing next to a man. Economy first and foremost.
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Old 10-08-2012, 06:20 PM   #56
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Originally Posted by R8ers View Post
The economy son, pay attention


Obama is an abject failure.

Economic Policy(Marxism) Failed, but economic historians weren't very high on his advisory panel.

Foreign policy(Lead from behind) Failed. The mid-east is in flames. We are weaker than ever. Iran probably will get nukes. Chavez got reelected. Gasoline is at record highs(this is a crossover with economy but is tied to foreign policy.

He is a complete failure as president of the United States of America.
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Old 10-08-2012, 06:21 PM   #57
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Originally Posted by Calcountry View Post


Obama is an abject failure.

Economic Policy(Marxism) Failed, but economic historians weren't very high on his advisory panel.

Foreign policy(Lead from behind) Failed. The mid-east is in flames. We are weaker than ever. Iran probably will get nukes. Chavez got reelected. Gasoline is at record highs(this is a crossover with economy but is tied to foreign policy.

He is a complete failure as president of the United States of America.
As evidenced by the fact you can't get his supporters to present any of his achievements as reasons to vote for him again. Ask any obama supporter why they are going to vote for him.
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Old 10-08-2012, 06:22 PM   #58
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Originally Posted by vailpass View Post
Oh my God, the sad irony of an obama supporter criticizing the "I'm not him" tactic.

Which, by the way, Romney is not doing. Pay attention to the debates, see how many areas Romney makes obama look like a boy standing next to a man. Economy first and foremost.
He compared him to his 5 sons.

I wonder how that made Obama feel, knowing that his dad didn't love him enough to be there to spank his ass the way Romney did in that debate.
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Old 10-08-2012, 06:22 PM   #59
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As evidenced by the fact you can't get his supporters to present any of his achievements as reasons to vote for him again. Ask any obama supporter why they are going to vote for him.
Well, there is the fact that he is black.
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Old 10-08-2012, 06:23 PM   #60
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Calcountry View Post


Obama is an abject failure.

Economic Policy(Marxism) Failed, but economic historians weren't very high on his advisory panel.

Foreign policy(Lead from behind) Failed. The mid-east is in flames. We are weaker than ever. Iran probably will get nukes. Chavez got reelected. Gasoline is at record highs(this is a crossover with economy but is tied to foreign policy.

He is a complete failure as president of the United States of America.
Worst President ever
Don't you love how they are ignoring fuel prices? WHEN Bush was Pres, if the price hit 2 bucks a gallon the media went nuts

(Oh BTW I think gas prices in Venezuela is .12 a gallon)
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