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Old 08-07-2012, 07:21 PM  
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
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538

The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

Last edited by whoman69; 11-06-2012 at 09:58 AM.. Reason: latest update
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Old 10-09-2012, 03:31 PM   #256
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Quote:
Originally Posted by qabbaan View Post
This godlike reverence for 538 is starting to be silly, when all polls have moved significantly and he hasn't noticed.
What are you talking about? On Oct 3 he had Obama with a 86% chance to win. That was down to 74% by yesterday.
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Quote:
Originally posted by Logical
When the boobs are a bouncin, the Chiefs will be trouncin
What the Raiders fan has said is true, our customs are different. What Al Davis has said is unimportant, and we do not hear his words.
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Old 10-09-2012, 03:47 PM   #257
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Donger View Post
Out of curiosity, do you even know how he calculates those percentages?
Its all on his original site if you want to check it. Basically he uses the reliability of each poll in the past, adjusts those with the state demographics, adds in economic factors and then comes up with a statistical probability. Those numbers are run through a series of simulations and one candidate wins a percentage of those simulations. It worked in 2008 and 2010. Its all numbers. If it were a fluff piece like unskewed then it wouldn't have volatility. There hasn't been as much volatility in this year's race as there are fewer undecided voters or voters that will change their minds.
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Quote:
Originally posted by Logical
When the boobs are a bouncin, the Chiefs will be trouncin
What the Raiders fan has said is true, our customs are different. What Al Davis has said is unimportant, and we do not hear his words.
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Old 10-09-2012, 03:54 PM   #258
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Quote:
Originally Posted by qabbaan View Post
This godlike reverence for 538 is starting to be silly, when all polls have moved significantly and he hasn't noticed.
This is not a partisan thing. You can try to believe that if you want and fail.

Hoover is a political professional Republican and he holds Nate silver's work in high regard. As does most Republicans until the last month when anything that wasn't going Romney's way was BS. (job numbers, poll numbers etc.)
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Attempted troll/humor while discussing potential child abuse
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bufkin View Post
If it's effective, who are you, me, or anybody else to call it abuse? I worked with a guy back in Moberly who would shove a finger up his son's ass each time he had anything worse than a C on his report card. If he came home with 2 D's and an F, that's 3 fingers (and this was a big dude). Does that sound hideous and disgusting? Absolutely. Did the kid ever get anything worse than a C after this rule was implemented? Not a chance.

I'm not saying it's morally right or wrong, but does it make the child because of it? Think about that for a second.
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Old 10-09-2012, 03:55 PM   #259
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Quote:
Originally Posted by whoman69 View Post
Its all on his original site if you want to check it. Basically he uses the reliability of each poll in the past, adjusts those with the state demographics, adds in economic factors and then comes up with a statistical probability. Those numbers are run through a series of simulations and one candidate wins a percentage of those simulations. It worked in 2008 and 2010. Its all numbers. If it were a fluff piece like unskewed then it wouldn't have volatility. There hasn't been as much volatility in this year's race as there are fewer undecided voters or voters that will change their minds.
My predictions using my spiffy software in 2004 and 2008 were closer than his...
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Old 10-09-2012, 04:00 PM   #260
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Today's update is in early. Obama down to 71.4% chance of winning. Obama is below an average of 300 EC for the first time since Aug. 28. Bad numbers in Colorado and Virginia for Obama as both are below 60%. Florida is now a slight lean Romney at 53.3%.

States with at least 80% for Obama: 251 EC
States with at least 75% for Obama: 257 EC
States with at least 70% for Obama: 275 EC
States with at least 60% for Obama: 281 EC
States with at least 51% for Obama: 303 EC
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Quote:
Originally posted by Logical
When the boobs are a bouncin, the Chiefs will be trouncin
What the Raiders fan has said is true, our customs are different. What Al Davis has said is unimportant, and we do not hear his words.
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Old 10-09-2012, 04:00 PM   #261
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RINGLEADER View Post
My predictions using my spiffy software in 2004 and 2008 were closer than his...
BS
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Quote:
Originally posted by Logical
When the boobs are a bouncin, the Chiefs will be trouncin
What the Raiders fan has said is true, our customs are different. What Al Davis has said is unimportant, and we do not hear his words.
Posts: 23,081
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Old 10-09-2012, 04:03 PM   #262
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RINGLEADER View Post
My predictions using my spiffy software in 2004 and 2008 were closer than his...
If true, why don't you publish them, start a web site and then sell it for millions of $'s like Nate?
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Attempted troll/humor while discussing potential child abuse
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bufkin View Post
If it's effective, who are you, me, or anybody else to call it abuse? I worked with a guy back in Moberly who would shove a finger up his son's ass each time he had anything worse than a C on his report card. If he came home with 2 D's and an F, that's 3 fingers (and this was a big dude). Does that sound hideous and disgusting? Absolutely. Did the kid ever get anything worse than a C after this rule was implemented? Not a chance.

I'm not saying it's morally right or wrong, but does it make the child because of it? Think about that for a second.
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Old 10-09-2012, 04:03 PM   #263
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
This is not a partisan thing. You can try to believe that if you want and fail.

Hoover is a political professional Republican and he holds Nate silver's work in high regard. As does most Republicans until the last month when anything that wasn't going Romney's way was BS. (job numbers, poll numbers etc.)
His final work may be very well be in high regard, but it is clear he is not as eager to report upward momentum for Romney in the polls as he is the President. He gets around to it eventually, but if there is the slightest uptick for Obama, he reports it right away. Kind of like the price of gas.....on the slightest whiff of anything negative for Romney, his stock plummets, but in the face of overwhelming positive momentum for his campaign, he conveniently does not have enough data to acknowledge that Romney has gained significant momentum in the race.

Perhaps it is so inconceivable to him that Romney might win, that he just cannot properly comprehend the data due to his bias?

I was giving Silver a large benefit of the doubt, but it has been one full week since the debate, and it is clear that Romney has some serious momentum....everyone seems to agree but him. It will be interesting to see how he treats the VP debate..especially if Biden is seen to have won.
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Old 10-09-2012, 04:37 PM   #264
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Quote:
Originally Posted by whoman69 View Post
BS
I can't find my post from the 2004 election, but here you go from the morning of election day 2008:

http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=195969

I was off by...well you can see...not too much...
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Old 10-09-2012, 04:39 PM   #265
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
If true, why don't you publish them, start a web site and then sell it for millions of $'s like Nate?
Because I have about 100 other sites that already make me more money then I need...

I just do it for Chiefsplanet because I find it fun and wonky...

Though I was considering it this year -- just didn't have the time and my programmers do have to sleep...
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Old 10-09-2012, 05:03 PM   #266
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Originally Posted by RINGLEADER View Post
Because I have about 100 other sites that already make me more money then I need...

I just do it for Chiefsplanet because I find it fun and wonky...

Though I was considering it this year -- just didn't have the time and my programmers do have to sleep...
so, these other sites are making you a multi millionaire?
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Attempted troll/humor while discussing potential child abuse
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bufkin View Post
If it's effective, who are you, me, or anybody else to call it abuse? I worked with a guy back in Moberly who would shove a finger up his son's ass each time he had anything worse than a C on his report card. If he came home with 2 D's and an F, that's 3 fingers (and this was a big dude). Does that sound hideous and disgusting? Absolutely. Did the kid ever get anything worse than a C after this rule was implemented? Not a chance.

I'm not saying it's morally right or wrong, but does it make the child because of it? Think about that for a second.
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Old 10-09-2012, 05:37 PM   #267
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so, these other sites are making you a multi millionaire?
I do okay...
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Old 10-09-2012, 05:40 PM   #268
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Originally Posted by RINGLEADER View Post
I do okay...
Would you characterize yourself as a member of the 1 percent?
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Old 10-09-2012, 05:48 PM   #269
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Would you characterize yourself as a member of the 1 percent? If so,
FYP
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Attempted troll/humor while discussing potential child abuse
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bufkin View Post
If it's effective, who are you, me, or anybody else to call it abuse? I worked with a guy back in Moberly who would shove a finger up his son's ass each time he had anything worse than a C on his report card. If he came home with 2 D's and an F, that's 3 fingers (and this was a big dude). Does that sound hideous and disgusting? Absolutely. Did the kid ever get anything worse than a C after this rule was implemented? Not a chance.

I'm not saying it's morally right or wrong, but does it make the child because of it? Think about that for a second.
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Old 10-09-2012, 05:52 PM   #270
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Originally Posted by mnchiefsguy View Post
They do seem to be quick on the draw to bump up Obama, but rather slow on anything positive for Romney. If Romney wins, 538 will have jumped the shark, and its relevance will fade quickly.
Nah, he will close the numbers immediately before. The media will want to make sure voters they like turn out, rather than assuming its in the bag.
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