Pollster David Paleologos: Obama Can't Win North Carolina, Virginia Or Florida

[qabbaan]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/1...elections-2012

With a little less than a month until the election, one pollster says the race in three battleground states is over for President Barack Obama.

“I think in places like North Carolina, Virginia and Florida, we’ve already painted those red," David Paleologos, the president of Suffolk University Political Research Center told Fox host Bill O'Reilly on Tuesday. "We’re not polling any of those states again. We're focusing on the remaining states.”

Facing limited resources, outlets are selective in their polling, and some argue that other swing states such as Ohio, Nevada and Iowa might prove better election predictors.

In an email to The Huffington Post, Paleologos said it was an issue of prioritization. "With just 5 statewide polls left in 3 1/2 weeks, the choice of which states to poll is always shifting," he wrote. "As of last night, there were at least five other states that we felt we must poll, many of which have higher head-to-head numbers (49 percent) for Barack Obama and which are more critical to deciding the national election."

While such calculations aren't rare, it's more unusual to publicly write-off closely fought states before an election. Paleologos' initial comments came as a surprise to other pollsters active in those states.

"I think he’s totally wrong about Obama’s prospects in those states, particularly Florida and Virginia, and I just think it’s really strange you’d go on national TV and make those declarations without having fresh polling in hand showing Romney ahead in those states," said Tom Jensen, director of the democratic firm Public Policy Polling. "But nuance doesn’t count for much on primetime cable ..."

Doug Usher, the director of a swing state poll conducted by public affairs firm Purple Strategies, said stopping polls in those states was "counterintuitive."

"Those three states are clearly still in play," Usher said. "We're not sure how much more polling that we are going to do this cycle, just because it's a cost question for us, but if we were, we would absolutely be polling all three ... So, I just don't know what factors he takes into account that would lead him to believe that they're unwinnable for Obama."

Paleologos said that Obama has consistently polled at 47 percent of the vote in the three states, making a win for him "not impossible, but highly improbable," especially in North Carolina. The state, which Obama carried in 2008, is currently trending red, and several pollsters agree that it's one of the strongest battleground states for Romney.

But Kenneth Fernandez, director of the North Carolina-based Elon University Poll, cautioned against making any quick decisions. "We’ve seen the lead changes in North Carolina a dozen times and results have almost always been within the margin of error. I don’t think you will see many well-funded polling organizations pulling out of North Carolina, Florida, or Virginia," he said.

Fernandez noted that pollsters with limited time and money might choose to focus on different states, but "it seems premature to make a methodological decision based on a single campaign event and poll change," he said.

Fernandez pointed to 1948, when Gallup stopped polling two weeks before the election and predicted that Thomas Dewey would defeat Harry Truman. "When you make such a decision with incomplete information, you are increasing your chances of being wrong, very wrong."

Other polling outlets said they would continue surveys in Virginia, North Carolina and Florida. Roanoke College plans more polling in Virginia, and the Marist Institute, which conducts polling for NBC and The Wall Street Journal, also will keep polling in all three states.

Paleologos said he would consider resuming polling in Florida or Virginia if other outlets showed Obama winning 49 percent or more of the vote. "[W]e would certainly revisit, if time and resources allow," he said. "However, we have to make decisions about the numbers immediately before us, as much planning takes place for each poll."

[Bo's Pelini]

This pollster should be fired

[Saul Good]

Romney by 7 in FL.

http://www.tampabay.com/news/politic...ama-44/1255882

[qabbaan]

I'm still seeing a lot of Obama commercials, and in my unscientific judgement there are noticeably more of those than there are Romney commercials. So it seems the Obama campaign hasn't given up on FL even if this pollster has moved it over into Romney's column.

[qabbaan]

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Governm...ney-Leads-By-7

Romney is up by 7 in Virginia as well.

[Mr. Kotter]

I agree the race has tightened, however the histrionics of RWNJs trying to use body English to will this kick through the uprights is beginning to border on hilarious.....

If it holds over the next couple of weeks, especially following the 2nd Debate, then you guys can begin the Circle-Jerk; until then, you are looking awfully silly. Polls are a snap-shot in time, and depending on methodology...can be very misleading. One needs to look at the sum of polling over a several day stretch to see real trends. You aren't there....yet. You could be getting there, but don't put the cart before the horse....

[mnchiefsguy]

Originally Posted by Mr. Kotter

I agree the race has tightened, however the histrionics of RWNJs trying to use body English to will this kick through the uprights is beginning to border on hilarious.....

If it holds over the next couple of weeks, especially following the 2nd Debate, then you guys can begin the Circle-Jerk; until then, you are looking awfully silly. Polls are a snap-shot in time, and depending on methodology...can be very misleading. One needs to look at the sum of polling over a several day stretch to see real trends. You aren't there....yet. You could be getting there, but don't put the cart before the horse....

While I agree that the race is far, far, from over, there has been almost 10 days of polling and analysis since the first Presidential debate. I think the Romney bounce, or gain, or whatever you want to call it, can be verified as legitimate at this point. The race is officially a toss up at this point, and Obama's edge in potential electoral votes can be summed up in three words: New York, California.

[qabbaan]

Other polls from RCP: Obama's lead has shrunk to 1 point in Ohio, Romney up by 1 in a poll today in Colorado.

[headsnap]

Originally Posted by Mr. Kotter

Ironic that you post that pic... I don't think there is enough time before the election for Obama to build another Mitt Strawmney to tear down...

[qabbaan]

Looks like he may have been a week or two ahead of the rest of us.


http://www.nationaljournal.com/polit...-duel-20121017

Dig down in this pedestrian article, and there are some interesting quotes:

What also became clear after the dust began to settle from the rumble on Long Island was the electoral map has narrowed and Obama's team, while conceding nothing publicly, is circling the wagons around Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada.

Plouffe said that Obama remains strong in all four states, but he would not discuss the specifics of internal polling or voter-contact analytics, saying only that Obama has "significant leads" in all four places.

It is uncharacteristic of Team Obama to concede any terrain, but Plouffe offered no such assurances about Obama's position in North Carolina, Virginia, or Florida. Romney advisers have seen big gains in all three states and now consider wins likely, although not guaranteed, in all three. They are similarly upbeat about prospects in Colorado but not confident enough to predict victory.

That Plouffe left Colorado off his list of states where Obama's leading and can withstand a Romney surge might be telling.

According to RealClearPolitics, Obama currently has 201 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win. But that doesn't give Obama electoral votes from Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (16), or Wisconsin (10). Of these three, Romney advisers believe that only one, Wisconsin, is even theoretically winnable. Obama advisers believe they will win all three. That would put Obama at 247 electoral votes. If Obama wins Ohio (18), Iowa (6), Nevada (6), and New Hampshire (4) he would claim 281 electoral votes. That means he could afford to lose New Hampshire and Nevada and still eke out a razor-thin victory of 271 electoral votes.

Romney, according to RCP, has 191 electoral votes. If you add Florida (29), North Carolina (15), and Virginia (13), that brings his total to 248 electoral votes. Add Colorado (9) --which neither campaign is prepared to claim or concede--and Romney's total rises to 257 electoral votes. If Romney wins Ohio (18) in addition to these states, he would have 275 electoral votes. If Romney loses Ohio, he would need to win Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire to reach 273 electoral votes. There is a scenario where Romney could lose Ohio and New Hampshire but win Iowa and Nevada and one electoral vote from the 2nd Congressional District in Maine (the state allocates electoral votes by district vote) and capture the bare minimum of 270 electoral votes.

"I really don't see a path for Romney without Ohio," Plouffe said. "And we feel very good about where we are in Ohio with voter contacts, messaging, and early voting. Our early voting is ahead of where we were in 2008."

"God bless them in the Obama campaign," said RNC Communications Director Sean Spicer. "We are gaining in Ohio, and they can say all they want about early vote. We are way, way ahead in early voting in Ohio compared to 2008, and what matters are residual voters after the early vote. We believe we will have enough to win."

http://www.nationaljournal.com/polit...-duel-20121017

[qabbaan]

Meanwhile, in the Gallup national tracking poll, Romney has crossed 51% for the first time, and today is the first time he has lead outside of the margin of error.

Romney has steadily gained in the Gallup poll in recent weeks, turning what had been a growing deficit in September into a growing lead since his strong first debate performance. And when Gallup shifted its voter model from registered voters to likely voters last week, Romney’s numbers improved even more (among registered voters, the race is at Romney 48, Obama 46).

The new numbers, of course, don’t include much or any data collected after Tuesday night’s debate. It will take days to determine what effect that might have had.

[BucEyedPea]

I have seen a lot more Obama signs on front lawns in west coast central Florida lately.
Our newspapers claim the state is divided between the two. So I don't think Florida can be called until election night, or maybe the day after.