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Old 08-07-2012, 07:21 PM  
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
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538

The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

Last edited by whoman69; 11-06-2012 at 09:58 AM.. Reason: latest update
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Old 10-21-2012, 10:16 PM   #391
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In Ohio, Romney leads Obama by 19 percent among independents, 52–33.

That's the only number that matters, moonbats.

Ohio is sending the race hustler Barry packing.
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Old 10-21-2012, 10:18 PM   #392
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Originally Posted by RINGLEADER View Post
A lot of people give NS crap because he doesn't seem to pick up the Romney moves, but the big reason why his analysis weights the chances of an Obama win so high begins and ends with the letter O. Flip Ohio and all Romney has to do is win one more from NH, IA, WI, CO, or NV.

Get 2-3 polls with OH in Romney's column and the 538 analysis is going to change in a very big way.
I agree that if Romney can flip Ohio to his column, it opens many paths to the presidency. But, Obama bailing out GM and Chrysler is Obama's firewall in Ohio.
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Old 10-21-2012, 10:29 PM   #393
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It’s Code Red in Moonbat nation

By Howie Carr

The moonbats are melting down. They look at the polls, they see Romney ahead, and they react the only way they know how — badly.

An outbreak of Bush Derangement Syndrome, a mental disorder previously believed to have been eradicated in 2009, was observed last week at Hofstra University.

MSNBC’s Lawrence O’Donnell, the tough street kid from St. Sebastian’s and Harvard, challenges Tagg Romney, that wimp from Belmont Hill, to a fistfight. Preppie-on-preppie crime.



Ann Romney is badgered on “The View” about Mormonism, by yentas who would never dare say anything negative about, say, Islam.

After midnight the guilt-ridden trustafarians toss and turn in their beds, their prescription antidepressants and opiates powerless against the dread that fills their vacant skulls.

President Mitt Romney? Aaaarrrrrgh!!!

Barack Obama, reduced to the presidency ... of the Choom Gang.

Your average moonbat is approaching the checkout counter — sensible shoes, gray ponytails, tent-like dresses, handicap placards. And now, what’s left of their minds are going through the changes again.

If Mitt wins, they’ll have to go back to holding candlelight vigils every Saturday night on their suburban commons. New bumper stickers will have be ordered — Mitt Lied, (Fill in the Blank) Died. They’ll think of somebody Mitt killed. After all, he’s a Republican.

If their Messiah loses, the Patriot Act will suddenly become unconstitutional again. For the first time in four years, drone strikes in Afghanistan will be genocide.

Hey hey, ho ho, Camp Gitmo’s gotta go.

If Mitt wins, Barack won’t be able to finish lowering the sea levels?

Come back Cindy Sheehan, all is forgiven. Ditto, Code Pink.

Four-dollar-a-gallon gas — it won’t be good for the environment anymore, not if a Republican is living in the White House. It’ll be the biggest outrage of all time. Damn Big Oil!

Moonbats hate Matt Drudge, but now they’re praying he was right when he speculated last night that Gloria Allred has found a new scorned woman who’s about to drop another big sex scandal on the GOP.

Can you imagine the indignities of a Romney presidency? Who knows if most of these wrinkly moonbats will even survive long enough to see decorative French ticklers and hash pipes back on the White House Christmas tree, as in the glory days of the Clinton administration.

Bitter clingers riding high.

A president who goes to church on Sunday? What’s next, work requirements for welfare recipients?

President Mitt Romney? No more apology tours of the Mideast, no more bowing and scraping to tinpot dictators.



Did you watch Comrade Chris Matthews last week questioning whether it was constitutional for Mitt Romney to interrupt the One Who Sends Thrills Up His Leg?

Only 16 days to turn it around. And if the One can’t, well ... Elizabeth Warren for President 2016.

http://news.bostonherald.com/news/co...ol#articleFull

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Old 10-22-2012, 12:52 AM   #394
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In the senate 538 sees the Democrats holding. They see Democrats winning in 22 contests. Of those contest the least like Democratic win is in Connecticut with a 79% chance of victory there. If that holds the final numbers would have 52 Democrats (including 2 independents) and 48 Republicans, a net +1 for Republicans.

In the 11 contests where Republicans are winning, several are tenuous at best. Montana has 56.8% chance of Republican victory, Indiana 63.8 and Arizona is 68.6%. Republicans are only given a 12.4% chance of taking back the Senate.
I was guessing it would be 50-50 all along.. then Akin showed his ass and I switched it to 51-49... I'd be surprised if 51-49 doesn't end up the final number... but hell we could see 50-50 and 269-269 electoral split with split Pres/VP ticket that keeps the Senate with the Dems in charge! how weird would that be! (yes, I know that is very very very unlikely, but it is possible)
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Old 10-22-2012, 01:05 AM   #395
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Sure, sure... Barry will win Ohio...

If 407,000 white people don't vote

http://battlegroundwatch.com/2012/10...vis-marketing/

It's over, O-bots.
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Old 10-22-2012, 01:37 AM   #396
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom.Jay61 View Post
Sure, sure... Barry will win Ohio...

If 407,000 white people don't vote

http://battlegroundwatch.com/2012/10...vis-marketing/

It's over, O-bots.
Dude, you could very well be right...but this election is going to be close, whichever way it goes. Common sense dictates that this race is much closer to 50/50...and coin flips can go either way.

I certainly am not doing any happy dances yet.
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Old 10-22-2012, 01:48 AM   #397
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Florida is like Missouri. It use to be 50/50. Elections could go either way. Since 2008, there has been an increase in the population in Northern Florida which is redneck alley. And a decrease in population in the urban centers which trend Democratic.
Elitist much? It is so ingrained in your nature these days that you don't even see it when you do it...
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Old 10-22-2012, 03:02 AM   #398
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Originally Posted by whoman69 View Post
In the senate 538 sees the Democrats holding. They see Democrats winning in 22 contests. Of those contest the least like Democratic win is in Connecticut with a 79% chance of victory there. If that holds the final numbers would have 52 Democrats (including 2 independents) and 48 Republicans, a net +1 for Republicans.

In the 11 contests where Republicans are winning, several are tenuous at best. Montana has 56.8% chance of Republican victory, Indiana 63.8 and Arizona is 68.6%. Republicans are only given a 12.4% chance of taking back the Senate.
I could see that.

Maybe the GOP squeezes out one more, but depends on it Romney overperforms.
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Old 10-22-2012, 09:26 AM   #399
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If Romney were somehow to flip all of the least tenuous states and keep his lead on Virginia (53.1%), he still falls short 267-271. There were thoughts Romney could take one of the districts in Maine, but that is highly unlikely and would still leave him short unless he took the state, an event even more unlikely.

Obama holds at least 70% in those 271 EC. Ohio is at 70.3% and Wisconsin 79%.
So much faith, so little rational observation.
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Old 10-22-2012, 10:46 AM   #400
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So much faith, so little rational observation.
This coming from you?
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Old 10-22-2012, 11:40 AM   #401
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Elitist much? It is so ingrained in your nature these days that you don't even see it when you do it...
I come from a long line of rednecks on both sides of my family, so yes, it is ingrained inside of me, a part of my DNA. But my happenstance of birth, doesn't mean I have to remain ignorant of the outside world.
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Old 10-22-2012, 11:48 AM   #402
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I come from a long line of rednecks on both sides of my family, so yes, it is ingrained inside of me, a part of my DNA. But my happenstance of birth, doesn't mean I have to remain ignorant of the outside world.
To what do you attribute it if not happenstance of birth?
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Old 10-22-2012, 11:59 AM   #403
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To what do you attribute it if not happenstance of birth?
I see what you did there. But to clarify for those who dont know me..........

I sure wish I knew why I'm so different I couldn't be more different than them on how I approach life. Both sides of my family has been in the USA since the early 1700's. The best we can determine is that both sides of the families were part of the original "rednecks" that settled in the Ozarks.

I realize I'm harder on "rednecks" that I should be. They are not criminals, they work low paying jobs, lack ambition but they are relatively happy. God bless them and I love momma and most of the cousins etc. I'll try to be kinder to my kind.
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Old 10-22-2012, 01:40 PM   #404
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I come from a long line of rednecks on both sides of my family, so yes, it is ingrained inside of me, a part of my DNA. But my happenstance of birth, doesn't mean I have to remain ignorant of the outside world.
Doesn't change the fact that you don't even realize when your are doing it. Redneck= ignorant now. What makes them ignorant? Because they don't agree with your particular brand of politics? Because you feel they are incapable of critical thought? All that sums up to elitism big fella.
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Old 10-22-2012, 01:42 PM   #405
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Doesn't change the fact that you don't even realize when your are doing it. Redneck= ignorant now. What makes them ignorant? Because they don't agree with your particular brand of politics? Because you feel they are incapable of critical thought? All that sums up to elitism big fella.
brand of politics or life style.
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