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Old 08-07-2012, 08:21 PM  
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
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538

The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

Last edited by whoman69; 11-06-2012 at 10:58 AM.. Reason: latest update
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Old 10-25-2012, 05:16 PM   #451
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http://www.politico.com/2012-election/swing-state/


Getting real close
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Old 10-25-2012, 05:28 PM   #452
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Quote:
Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
Trips to the Ranch and Camp David aren't really vacations. You might be able to dazzle your fellow simpletons with BS like that, but they don't have much impact on me.
Yeah, Bush just forgot his wallet and to chop down that tree.
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Old 10-25-2012, 05:33 PM   #453
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Originally Posted by whoman69 View Post
So it Patteeu Bizarroworld Bush took 0 days of vacation.
Clearing brush was work, dammit!!
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Old 10-25-2012, 05:34 PM   #454
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Just like he was going to win Florida?
Romeny still has time to turn it around. Abortion rape comments from the only Senate candidate he made a TV ad for doesn't help. But, Obama takes Ohio it will be because of the auto bailout.
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Old 10-25-2012, 05:51 PM   #455
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Originally Posted by Cave Johnson View Post
Clearing brush was work, dammit!!
Have you ever cleared brush on a vacation, silverspoon?
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Old 10-25-2012, 05:52 PM   #456
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Meanwhile, back at bubble central, let's hear from Mayor McBubble:

Quote:
Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
Just like everyone is saying, that it is fast becoming a perceived reality, Obama takes Ohio, its checkmate.
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Old 10-25-2012, 06:24 PM   #457
BigRedChief BigRedChief is offline
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Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
Meanwhile, back at bubble central, let's hear from Mayor McBubble:
I see what you did there.

I don't live in a bubble, you live in a bubble. Rinse repeat etc.

just so we are dealing with facts.......please show me or tell me the path to the Presidency for Romney to win the presidency without Ohio.
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Old 10-25-2012, 06:30 PM   #458
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Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
I see what you did there.

I don't live in a bubble, you live in a bubble. Rinse repeat etc.

just so we are dealing with facts.......please show me or tell me the path to the Presidency for Romney to win the presidency without Ohio.
Here is one:

http://www.270towin.com/2012_electio....php?mapid=SUo


and that map was on the front page of the 270towin site. I did not change it, merely clicked share it and copied the link.
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Old 10-25-2012, 06:31 PM   #459
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Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
I see what you did there.

I don't live in a bubble, you live in a bubble. Rinse repeat etc.

just so we are dealing with facts.......please show me or tell me the path to the Presidency for Romney to win the presidency without Ohio.
New Hampshire, Colorado, Iowa and Nevada.
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Old 10-25-2012, 06:32 PM   #460
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mnchiefsguy View Post
Here is one:

http://www.270towin.com/2012_electio....php?mapid=SUo


and that map was on the front page of the 270towin site. I did not change it, merely clicked share it and copied the link.
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Old 10-25-2012, 06:49 PM   #461
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Originally Posted by Donger View Post
New Hampshire, Colorado, Iowa and Nevada.
New Hampshire? Really? And Obama has the biggest lead in Nevada of all the battleground states.
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Old 10-25-2012, 06:51 PM   #462
BigRedChief BigRedChief is offline
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Originally Posted by mnchiefsguy View Post
Here is one:

http://www.270towin.com/2012_electio....php?mapid=SUo


and that map was on the front page of the 270towin site. I did not change it, merely clicked share it and copied the link.
Same one as Donger. Possible, yes, probable, nada chance.

Obama has a better chance of winning Florida than Romney does of sweeping every battleground states except Ohio.
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Old 10-25-2012, 06:53 PM   #463
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Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
New Hampshire? Really? And Obama has the biggest lead in Nevada of all the battleground states.
Yes, really. It's rather close in NH. If you want, you can substitute Michigan for Nevada if you want.

Are you a 538 follower?
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Old 10-25-2012, 06:53 PM   #464
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Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
Same one as Donger. Possible, yes, probable, nada chance.

Obama has a better chance of winning Florida than Romney does of sweeping every battleground states except Ohio.
Have you looked at the deltas from 2008 to now in these states?
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Old 10-25-2012, 07:01 PM   #465
BigRedChief BigRedChief is offline
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Have you looked at the deltas from 2008 to now in these states?
Nevada has had its economy one of the worse in the USA. The reason he will win is latinos. Same reason that Texas may be able to turn blue in 2016, if not 2020 for sure.

Assuming latinos stay with the Dems 65-35.
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