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Old 08-07-2012, 07:21 PM  
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
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538
The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%
Last edited by whoman69; 11-06-2012 at 09:58 AM.. Reason: latest update
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Old 10-25-2012, 06:08 PM   #466
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Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
I see what you did there.

I don't live in a bubble, you live in a bubble. Rinse repeat etc.

just so we are dealing with facts.......please show me or tell me the path to the Presidency for Romney to win the presidency without Ohio.
If he wins all 57 states besides Ohio, that should be enough to put him over the top.
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Old 10-25-2012, 06:10 PM   #467
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Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
Nevada has had its economy one of the worse in the USA. The reason he will win is latinos. Same reason that Texas may be able to turn blue in 2016, if not 2020 for sure.

Assuming latinos stay with the Dems 65-35.
You didn't answer my question. Have you looked at the deltas between 2008 and today?
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Old 10-25-2012, 06:11 PM   #468
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Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
If he wins all 57 states besides Ohio, that should be enough to put him over the top.
Okay, that was funny.
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Old 10-25-2012, 06:14 PM   #469
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Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
If he wins all 57 states besides Ohio, that should be enough to put him over the top.
thats pretty good. I've been posting too confrontational tonight. I love you man.
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Old 10-25-2012, 06:19 PM   #470
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Originally Posted by Donger View Post
You didn't answer my question. Have you looked at the deltas between 2008 and today?
The only Delta's I know.
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Old 10-25-2012, 06:30 PM   #471
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The only Delta's I know.


Facetious?
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Old 10-25-2012, 06:41 PM   #472
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Facetious?
Sorry dude, nothing personal your a good poster. I just dont want to argue anymore tonight. Promise to give a real answer to your question in the future.
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Old 10-25-2012, 08:36 PM   #473
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Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
Nevada has had its economy one of the worse in the USA. The reason he will win is latinos. Same reason that Texas may be able to turn blue in 2016, if not 2020 for sure.

Assuming latinos stay with the Dems 65-35.
If Texas goes blue, the R's may never win the White House again
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Old 10-25-2012, 09:20 PM   #474
BigRedChief BigRedChief is offline
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Nate Silver ‏@fivethirtyeight Obama 73% to win w/ those polls added. Bottom line simple: Romney is trailing - slightly - in tipping point states. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com
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Old 10-25-2012, 09:25 PM   #475
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Nate Silver ‏@fivethirtyeight That CO and VA are still toss-ups makes Obama's map more resilient if something goes wrong in OH. Model still bearish on him in FL, however.
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Old 10-25-2012, 09:28 PM   #476
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thats pretty good. I've been posting too confrontational tonight. I love you man.
yeah quit being an asshole man!
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Old 10-25-2012, 09:32 PM   #477
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I love 538 but remember, its only as good as the polls it includes. If the polls are messed up, Nate's going to be wrong. And its worthless to look at national polls .
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Old 10-25-2012, 09:33 PM   #478
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Nate Silver ‏@fivethirtyeight That CO and VA are still toss-ups makes Obama's map more resilient if something goes wrong in OH. Model still bearish on him in FL, however.
They might be toss-ups, but I fully expect Romney to win both as well as Iowa.
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Old 10-25-2012, 09:41 PM   #479
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They might be toss-ups, but I fully expect Romney to win both as well as Iowa.
so, who you have winning in november?
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Old 10-25-2012, 09:43 PM   #480
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They might be toss-ups, but I fully expect Romney to win both as well as Iowa.
Your opinion might just be a little biased.

Or more well informed
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