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Old 08-07-2012, 07:21 PM  
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
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538

The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

Last edited by whoman69; 11-06-2012 at 09:58 AM.. Reason: latest update
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Old 10-25-2012, 09:48 PM   #481
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
Nate Silver@fivethirtyeight That CO and VA are still toss-ups makes Obama's map more resilient if something goes wrong in OH. Model still bearish on him in FL, however.
I really don't see it that way, I tend to think the "toss ups" are going to break for Romney (as of right now) as they tend to do for the challenger.

Everyone keeps talking about Romney's momentum has stopped or reversed.. yet I don't see it. Last week he led in only one or two national polls now he leads in pretty much all of them (IBD/TIPP being the outlier)

You can talk about the electoral map all you want, but if Romney ACTUALLY ends up with a 2-3 point lead nationally, there is no way he doesn't win electorally as well. That isn't my prediction, I just think that we have yet to see ANYTHING that shows a definitive edge right now for either one.
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Old 10-25-2012, 09:51 PM   #482
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoover View Post
They might be toss-ups, but I fully expect Romney to win both as well as Iowa.
If I had to bet right now, I'd agree with this and throw in New Hampshire as well... leaving Romney with only 267 right now.
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Old 10-25-2012, 10:03 PM   #483
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
If I had to bet right now, I'd agree with this and throw in New Hampshire as well... leaving Romney with only 267 right now.
If you consider the uncertainty in polling, you could say that this the absolute best case scenario that Romney has right now, if the true state of the race resides in the favorable part of the error bar in every state race. You could also call this wishful thinking. It's akin to saying "If I had to bet, I'd say Obama takes Florida". There just aren't polls to support this point of view.
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Old 10-25-2012, 10:07 PM   #484
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I can't really speak to VA and CO, but I have talked to people in the know in both states. As is the case in Iowa, Romney is one the move and polls might not pick up on it right away.

I've been privy to a lot of polling data on a number of races in Iowa and the Romney movement is remarkable. If its that way in other states he's going to be the President next January.

If there is one problem with polls its that they are always late on identifying geographical movements. For example, the divide to watch in Iowa is the urban/rural split. Romney is going to crush Obama in rural Iowa, but a statewide poll might have difficulty picking it up because the sample needs to be geographically balanced, meaning more respondents are from urban areas, or its impossible to identify pockets of intense support.

In Iowa look at Santorum's caucus victory. Polls had him moving up, but they never captured his actual strength. Why? Because his support was almost entirely rural. Same was true in the 2010 Republican gubernatorial primary. One candidate had intense support in about a 5th of the counties. The Des Moines Register poll was off by 19 points. The guy still lost, but still.

I love polls. I commission polls. But I also know that they are always flawed in one way or another.
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Old 10-25-2012, 10:13 PM   #485
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Polls do have a lot of issues, and anyone that thinks this election is anything other than close is kidding themselves. I'm still reading a few sites, but mostly cutting myself off until election day. It'll be the most interesting election night in awhile.

I'm sick of it, and ready to just cast my vote and watch things happen. In the aftermath, we can reconsider all of the polls and predictions.
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Old 10-25-2012, 10:18 PM   #486
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
If you consider the uncertainty in polling, you could say that this the absolute best case scenario that Romney has right now, if the true state of the race resides in the favorable part of the error bar in every state race. You could also call this wishful thinking. It's akin to saying "If I had to bet, I'd say Obama takes Florida". There just aren't polls to support this point of view.
um, no.

New Hampshire- Romney is ahead right now, period.
Colorado- Romney is ahead or tied depending on the poll.
Iowa- Romney is ahead or tied.
Virginia- Romney is ahead.

Yes, all of these states are within the margin of error but the polls show a decided shift towards Romney that keeps building. If you use the most current polls it's pretty clear... but who knows if this is a real trend or will adjust back in the next week. Hence my "right now" qualifier.
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Old 10-25-2012, 10:21 PM   #487
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Feels real here in Iowa.

Energy, emotion, and momentum are all on Romney's side.

Oh, and the Obama early vote advantage is not on par with his numbers from 2008. That's a big problem. 2012 is going to look a lot like 2010 in Iowa. Republicans Kicked butt that year.
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Old 10-25-2012, 10:23 PM   #488
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoover View Post
I can't really speak to VA and CO, but I have talked to people in the know in both states. As is the case in Iowa, Romney is one the move and polls might not pick up on it right away.

I've been privy to a lot of polling data on a number of races in Iowa and the Romney movement is remarkable. If its that way in other states he's going to be the President next January.

If there is one problem with polls its that they are always late on identifying geographical movements. For example, the divide to watch in Iowa is the urban/rural split. Romney is going to crush Obama in rural Iowa, but a statewide poll might have difficulty picking it up because the sample needs to be geographically balanced, meaning more respondents are from urban areas, or its impossible to identify pockets of intense support.

In Iowa look at Santorum's caucus victory. Polls had him moving up, but they never captured his actual strength. Why? Because his support was almost entirely rural. Same was true in the 2010 Republican gubernatorial primary. One candidate had intense support in about a 5th of the counties. The Des Moines Register poll was off by 19 points. The guy still lost, but still.

I love polls. I commission polls. But I also know that they are always flawed in one way or another.
Interesting. In 2008 it seems that western rural IA went strongly for McCain, while eastern rural IA went pretty much Obama's way. Do you have any county level polls you can share from eastern rural IA? It would be interesting to see how many counties had flipped and how strongly.
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Old 10-25-2012, 10:23 PM   #489
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For me, there's just too much math going FOR Romney and against Obama right now... if it is accurate of course.

Romney winning by double digits among independents... Romney TIED among women. Those two are pretty damming.
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Old 10-25-2012, 10:30 PM   #490
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RCP right now has Obama up in OH, NH, IA, NV, WI, PA, MI, MN, and Romney up in FL, VA, CO, NC. If those all come true, Obama would win 281-257.
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Old 10-25-2012, 10:31 PM   #491
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
For me, there's just too much math going FOR Romney and against Obama right now... if it is accurate of course.

Romney winning by double digits among independents... Romney TIED among women. Those two are pretty damming.
All of the fundamentals have always pointed to a Romney victory. If the Republicans had a stronger candidate, I don't think it'd be a close election. We've seen this across the world - in tough economic times, people favor the other party. How many heads of government have survived the past four years?


I think it'll be incredibly close. And I wouldn't be surprised if a couple states that people thought were close swing more to Romney. And if a couple states leaning Romney end up closer than anyone thinks. It'll be a very interesting night.
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Old 10-25-2012, 10:33 PM   #492
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Western Iowa is more conservative, so that was the area where McCain could hold on. Obama actually won a number of so called Republican counties that year. This year he doesn't have a chance.

Here are four counties in northeast Iowa that Bush won in 2004 that Obama won in 2008. I would classify these are at least Republican leaning counties.


Franklin County
Kerry: 2340 Obama: 2575
Bush: 3128 McCain: 2501

Bremer County
Kerry: 6025 Obama: 6940
Bush: 6665 McCain: 5741

Delaware County
Kerry: 4227 Obama: 4649
Bush: 4908 McCain: 4113

Hardin County
Kerry: 4015 Obama: 4393
Bush: 4875 McCain: 4315

Look at Bush margins. Then know that Governor Terry Branstad's margins over Chet Culver in those counties were even greater. Branstand won Bremer (1400+) 960+ franklin 1400+ Hardin +1000.
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Old 10-25-2012, 10:34 PM   #493
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Aries Walker View Post
RCP right now has Obama up in OH, NH, IA, NV, WI, PA, MI, MN, and Romney up in FL, VA, CO, NC. If those all come true, Obama would win 281-257.
the RCP poll average is always a lagging indicator.
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Old 10-25-2012, 10:38 PM   #494
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
um, no.

New Hampshire- Romney is ahead right now, period.
Colorado- Romney is ahead or tied depending on the poll.
Iowa- Romney is ahead or tied.
Virginia- Romney is ahead.

Yes, all of these states are within the margin of error but the polls show a decided shift towards Romney that keeps building. If you use the most current polls it's pretty clear... but who knows if this is a real trend or will adjust back in the next week. Hence my "right now" qualifier.
You're biased in your presentation of raw polls. From 538, latest 5 polls in each state:

New Hampshire

Most recent Romney, 3/5 Romeny

Colorado

Most recent 3 Obama, 4/5 Obama

Iowa

Most recent Obama, 4/5 Obama

Virginia

Most recent Obama, 3/5 Romeny

When Nate Silver aggregates, all of these states are in Obama's column. His estimates include an estimate of uncertainty. Sure he could be off, but I doubt it is by so much that the true state of the race has all 4 of these states as most likely in Romeny's column.

Last edited by cdcox; 10-25-2012 at 10:47 PM..
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Old 10-25-2012, 10:40 PM   #495
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoover View Post
Western Iowa is more conservative, so that was the area where McCain could hold on. Obama actually won a number of so called Republican counties that year. This year he doesn't have a chance.

Here are four counties in northeast Iowa that Bush won in 2004 that Obama won in 2008. I would classify these are at least Republican leaning counties.


Franklin County
Kerry: 2340 Obama: 2575
Bush: 3128 McCain: 2501

Bremer County
Kerry: 6025 Obama: 6940
Bush: 6665 McCain: 5741

Delaware County
Kerry: 4227 Obama: 4649
Bush: 4908 McCain: 4113

Hardin County
Kerry: 4015 Obama: 4393
Bush: 4875 McCain: 4315

Look at Bush margins. Then know that Governor Terry Branstad's margins over Chet Culver in those counties were even greater. Branstand won Bremer (1400+) 960+ franklin 1400+ Hardin +1000.
Any county level polls you can share from this year? All that is ancient history.
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