Home Mail MemberMap Chat (0) Wallpapers
Go Back   ChiefsPlanet > The GET IN MAH BELLY! Lounge > D.C.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 08-07-2012, 07:21 PM  
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
The Master
 
whoman69's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Marion, IA
Casino cash: $61445
538

The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

Last edited by whoman69; 11-06-2012 at 09:58 AM.. Reason: latest update
Posts: 23,082
whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.
  Reply With Quote
Old 10-25-2012, 10:45 PM   #496
cdcox cdcox is offline
www.nfl-forecast.com
 
cdcox's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2000
Casino cash: $11388624
Quote:
Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
For me, there's just too much math going FOR Romney and against Obama right now... if it is accurate of course.

Romney winning by double digits among independents... Romney TIED among women. Those two are pretty damming.
Same polls have them tied among men. You can't believe one without believing the other. I don't believe either one.
Posts: 31,200
cdcox has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.cdcox has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.cdcox has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.cdcox has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.cdcox has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.cdcox has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.cdcox has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.cdcox has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.cdcox has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.cdcox has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.cdcox has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.
  Reply With Quote
Old 10-25-2012, 10:53 PM   #497
RINGLEADER RINGLEADER is online now
RING****ER
 
RINGLEADER's Avatar
 

Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Confusion, USA
Casino cash: $335049
Quote:
Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
Same polls have them tied among men. You can't believe one without believing the other. I don't believe either one.
If Romney was tied with women and up double-digits with indies he would be up at least 6-7 points unless the pollster greatly overweighted Dems in general.
Posts: 22,907
RINGLEADER Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.RINGLEADER Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.RINGLEADER Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.RINGLEADER Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.RINGLEADER Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.RINGLEADER Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.RINGLEADER Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.RINGLEADER Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.RINGLEADER Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.RINGLEADER Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.RINGLEADER Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.
  Reply With Quote
Old 10-25-2012, 10:59 PM   #498
AustinChief AustinChief is offline
Administrator
 
AustinChief's Avatar
 

Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: Austin
Casino cash: $1700746
Quote:
Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
When Nate Silver aggregates, all of these states are in Obama's column. His estimates include an estimate of uncertainty. Sure he could be off, but I doubt it is by so much that the true state of the race has all 4 of these states as most likely in Romeny's column.
I do not use 538 to look at recent polls and don't talk about BIAS, you are using some shitty polls (and outdated) there same as Silver. I simply don't trust PPP, never have, never will. So yes, I throw PPP out. I also am not looking at polls that I have never heard of.. even if they support Romney, it doesn't matter, I just don;t trust "no name" polls. They may be perfectly valid but I certainly would put more trust in Rasmussen or Gallup than Grove or Wenzel.

So yes, I can be accused of "brand name" bias and a bias against PPP. Guilty as charged there.

And once again, I have little to no faith in Silver's projections because I think a) his weighting is flawed and b) the polls themselves are skewed by an attempt to hold them to a 2008 model that I personally don;t think will apply this year.

I could be completely wrong, but I doubt it and we'll see in a 12 days.

Again this isn't a prediction of a Romney win, on the contrary, right now it is simply a prediction of a close loss.
Posts: 14,282
AustinChief has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.AustinChief has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.AustinChief has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.AustinChief has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.AustinChief has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.AustinChief has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.AustinChief has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.AustinChief has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.AustinChief has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.AustinChief has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.AustinChief has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.
  Reply With Quote
Old 10-25-2012, 11:02 PM   #499
Hoover Hoover is offline
Rufus Dawes Jr.
 
Hoover's Avatar
 

Join Date: Aug 2000
Casino cash: $53952
Quote:
Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
Any county level polls you can share from this year? All that is ancient history.
Sorry, can't share that polling data.
Posts: 8,291
Hoover 's adopt a chief was Sabby PiscitelliHoover 's adopt a chief was Sabby PiscitelliHoover 's adopt a chief was Sabby PiscitelliHoover 's adopt a chief was Sabby PiscitelliHoover 's adopt a chief was Sabby PiscitelliHoover 's adopt a chief was Sabby PiscitelliHoover 's adopt a chief was Sabby PiscitelliHoover 's adopt a chief was Sabby PiscitelliHoover 's adopt a chief was Sabby PiscitelliHoover 's adopt a chief was Sabby PiscitelliHoover 's adopt a chief was Sabby Piscitelli
  Reply With Quote
Old 10-25-2012, 11:02 PM   #500
cdcox cdcox is offline
www.nfl-forecast.com
 
cdcox's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2000
Casino cash: $11388624
Quote:
Originally Posted by RINGLEADER View Post
If Romney was tied with women and up double-digits with indies he would be up at least 6-7 points unless the pollster greatly overweighted Dems in general.
Self identified party affiliation is fluid. Someone who self identifies as a R one week might claim they are an indy the next. So I don't put any weight on that.

It's a little harder to change your mind on your sex. I don't see any way that the gender gap gets erased in both directions, that Romeny is picking up support among women at the same time he is losing it among men. Just seems incredibly unlikely.
Posts: 31,200
cdcox has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.cdcox has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.cdcox has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.cdcox has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.cdcox has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.cdcox has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.cdcox has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.cdcox has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.cdcox has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.cdcox has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.cdcox has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.
  Reply With Quote
Old 10-25-2012, 11:04 PM   #501
AustinChief AustinChief is offline
Administrator
 
AustinChief's Avatar
 

Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: Austin
Casino cash: $1700746
Quote:
Originally Posted by RINGLEADER View Post
If Romney was tied with women and up double-digits with indies he would be up at least 6-7 points unless the pollster greatly overweighted Dems in general.
Actually not really. Dems should be weighted at 3% or so more than Republicans... so the upcoming polls should show Romney up 4-6 points and it's getting close to that on a national level. (2-3 points in most recent polls)
Posts: 14,282
AustinChief has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.AustinChief has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.AustinChief has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.AustinChief has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.AustinChief has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.AustinChief has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.AustinChief has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.AustinChief has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.AustinChief has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.AustinChief has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.AustinChief has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.
  Reply With Quote
Old 10-25-2012, 11:05 PM   #502
cdcox cdcox is offline
www.nfl-forecast.com
 
cdcox's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2000
Casino cash: $11388624
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoover View Post
Sorry, can't share that polling data.
Understood. I appreciate you sharing what you did. I'll be watching IA with interest on election night.
Posts: 31,200
cdcox has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.cdcox has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.cdcox has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.cdcox has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.cdcox has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.cdcox has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.cdcox has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.cdcox has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.cdcox has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.cdcox has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.cdcox has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.
  Reply With Quote
Old 10-25-2012, 11:05 PM   #503
AustinChief AustinChief is offline
Administrator
 
AustinChief's Avatar
 

Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: Austin
Casino cash: $1700746
Quote:
Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
Self identified party affiliation is fluid. Someone who self identifies as a R one week might claim they are an indy the next. So I don't put any weight on that.

It's a little harder to change your mind on your sex. I don't see any way that the gender gap gets erased in both directions, that Romeny is picking up support among women at the same time he is losing it among men. Just seems incredibly unlikely.
I agree but I do think the gap has closed. I just can;t believe it closed THAT MUCH in that amount of times... UNLESS you are looking at a shift from polling all women, or registered voters to LIKELY voters. I'd have to go back and check, but that will make for a jump just like it did when Gallup switched.
Posts: 14,282
AustinChief has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.AustinChief has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.AustinChief has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.AustinChief has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.AustinChief has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.AustinChief has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.AustinChief has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.AustinChief has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.AustinChief has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.AustinChief has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.AustinChief has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.
  Reply With Quote
Old 10-25-2012, 11:08 PM   #504
cdcox cdcox is offline
www.nfl-forecast.com
 
cdcox's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2000
Casino cash: $11388624
Quote:
Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
I do not use 538 to look at recent polls and don't talk about BIAS, you are using some shitty polls (and outdated) there same as Silver. I simply don't trust PPP, never have, never will. So yes, I throw PPP out. I also am not looking at polls that I have never heard of.. even if they support Romney, it doesn't matter, I just don;t trust "no name" polls. They may be perfectly valid but I certainly would put more trust in Rasmussen or Gallup than Grove or Wenzel.

So yes, I can be accused of "brand name" bias and a bias against PPP. Guilty as charged there.

And once again, I have little to no faith in Silver's projections because I think a) his weighting is flawed and b) the polls themselves are skewed by an attempt to hold them to a 2008 model that I personally don;t think will apply this year.

I could be completely wrong, but I doubt it and we'll see in a 12 days.

Again this isn't a prediction of a Romney win, on the contrary, right now it is simply a prediction of a close loss.
You know Rasmussen doesn't include households that don't have a home phone? You think households without landlines might be biased toward younger people?

You know that Gallup has a rightward bias?
Posts: 31,200
cdcox has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.cdcox has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.cdcox has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.cdcox has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.cdcox has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.cdcox has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.cdcox has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.cdcox has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.cdcox has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.cdcox has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.cdcox has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.
  Reply With Quote
Old 10-26-2012, 08:06 AM   #505
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
Black for Palestine
 
Direckshun's Avatar
 

Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Springpatch
Casino cash: $1207601
What I'm reading:

Florida may be out of Obama's reach.

Wisconsin and Ohio are still out of Romney's and haven't ever really been this election cycle.

Nevada remains in Obama's corner, Romney has taken over in North Carolina and New Hampshire.

The one unpredictable, at least for me, is Virginia. Most polls I've scanned lean Obama, but there's only like a 60/40 lean right now.
__________________
Posts: 43,489
Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 10-26-2012, 08:36 AM   #506
Comrade Crapski Comrade Crapski is offline
Banned
 

Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: Sea of Green 23.4
Casino cash: $28270
Quote:
Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
What I'm reading:

Florida may be out of Obama's reach.

Wisconsin and Ohio are still out of Romney's and haven't ever really been this election cycle.

Nevada remains in Obama's corner, Romney has taken over in North Carolina and New Hampshire.

The one unpredictable, at least for me, is Virginia. Most polls I've scanned lean Obama, but there's only like a 60/40 lean right now.
yeah you keep telling yourself that.

Nobody believes all your daily kos nate silver BS, but if it makes you feel better about things, go for it.

It's not going to change reality and Obama is going to get a good jolly rogering on November 6.
Posts: 3,833
Comrade Crapski is too fat/Omaha.Comrade Crapski is too fat/Omaha.Comrade Crapski is too fat/Omaha.Comrade Crapski is too fat/Omaha.Comrade Crapski is too fat/Omaha.Comrade Crapski is too fat/Omaha.Comrade Crapski is too fat/Omaha.Comrade Crapski is too fat/Omaha.Comrade Crapski is too fat/Omaha.Comrade Crapski is too fat/Omaha.Comrade Crapski is too fat/Omaha.
  Reply With Quote
Old 10-26-2012, 09:08 AM   #507
patteeu patteeu is offline
The 23rd Pillar
 
patteeu's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2002
Casino cash: $472414
Quote:
Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
Self identified party affiliation is fluid. Someone who self identifies as a R one week might claim they are an indy the next. So I don't put any weight on that.

It's a little harder to change your mind on your sex. I don't see any way that the gender gap gets erased in both directions, that Romeny is picking up support among women at the same time he is losing it among men. Just seems incredibly unlikely.
Sure it is. How often does your self-identified party affiliation change?

With all the challenges of collecting a good random sample (land line vs cell phone vs social media, hangups etc.) I'm not sure it's a winning assumption to assume randomness and discount the meaning of party affiliation as opposed to assuming party affiliation accuracy and discounting the randomness.

I agree with you about the gender gap part though. It might narrow, but it's not going away.
__________________


"I'll see you guys in New York." ISIS Caliph Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi to US military personnel upon his release from US custody at Camp Bucca in Iraq during Obama's first year in office.
Posts: 75,584
patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 10-26-2012, 01:13 PM   #508
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
The Master
 
whoman69's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Marion, IA
Casino cash: $61445
Quote:
Originally Posted by mnchiefsguy View Post
Here is one:

http://www.270towin.com/2012_electio....php?mapid=SUo


and that map was on the front page of the 270towin site. I did not change it, merely clicked share it and copied the link.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Donger View Post
New Hampshire, Colorado, Iowa and Nevada.
That may be even further out there than Ohio. Colorado is certainly close. Iowa and New Hampshire less so. The odds of Romney winning Nevada are less than those to win Ohio.
__________________
-Watching Eddie Podolak
Quote:
Originally posted by Logical
When the boobs are a bouncin, the Chiefs will be trouncin
What the Raiders fan has said is true, our customs are different. What Al Davis has said is unimportant, and we do not hear his words.
Posts: 23,082
whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.
  Reply With Quote
Old 10-26-2012, 01:16 PM   #509
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
The Master
 
whoman69's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Marion, IA
Casino cash: $61445
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoover View Post
I love 538 but remember, its only as good as the polls it includes. If the polls are messed up, Nate's going to be wrong. And its worthless to look at national polls .
That's why Nate doesn't take the polls at face value. Each poll is graded on its historical accuracy and methods. There are different polls given different weights. 538 realizes most polls are messed up and tries to correct for each.
__________________
-Watching Eddie Podolak
Quote:
Originally posted by Logical
When the boobs are a bouncin, the Chiefs will be trouncin
What the Raiders fan has said is true, our customs are different. What Al Davis has said is unimportant, and we do not hear his words.
Posts: 23,082
whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.
  Reply With Quote
Old 10-26-2012, 01:17 PM   #510
KC Dan KC Dan is offline
Red, White & Blue for the U.S.
 
KC Dan's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: The Great Northwest now..
Casino cash: $58302
Quote:
Originally Posted by whoman69 View Post
That's why Nate doesn't take the polls at face value. Each poll is graded on its historical accuracy and methods. There are different polls given different weights. 538 realizes most polls are messed up and tries to correct for each.
Might as well predict earthquakes.....
__________________
"And if you don't know where you're going
Any road will take you there" - George Harrison
Posts: 5,768
KC Dan would the whole thing.KC Dan would the whole thing.KC Dan would the whole thing.KC Dan would the whole thing.KC Dan would the whole thing.KC Dan would the whole thing.KC Dan would the whole thing.KC Dan would the whole thing.KC Dan would the whole thing.KC Dan would the whole thing.KC Dan would the whole thing.
  Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -6. The time now is 01:31 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.0
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.