538

[whoman69]

The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

[whoman69]

Originally Posted by AustinChief

um, no.

New Hampshire- Romney is ahead right now, period.
Colorado- Romney is ahead or tied depending on the poll.
Iowa- Romney is ahead or tied.
Virginia- Romney is ahead.

Yes, all of these states are within the margin of error but the polls show a decided shift towards Romney that keeps building. If you use the most current polls it's pretty clear... but who knows if this is a real trend or will adjust back in the next week. Hence my "right now" qualifier.

Not true at all. New Hampshire polls are pretty split but state demographics are Democrat. Going back to Sept. 26 Romney has only been ahead in one poll in Iowa, tied in two while Obama was ahead in nine. You can also find as many polls that state Obama is ahead in Virginia as you would polls that have Romney ahead. Obama was ahead in five of the last seven polls in Colorado.

[mnchiefsguy]

Originally Posted by whoman69

Not true at all. New Hampshire polls are pretty split but state demographics are Democrat. Going back to Sept. 26 Romney has only been ahead in one poll in Iowa, tied in two while Obama was ahead in nine. You can also find as many polls that state Obama is ahead in Virginia as you would polls that have Romney ahead. Obama was ahead in five of the last seven polls in Colorado.

How is it not true at all? Obama's lead in NH is less than a percent point in most polls. All of the polls you cited are within the margin of error, so I am not sure how you can dispute that.

[KC native]

Originally Posted by whoman69

Not true at all. New Hampshire polls are pretty split but state demographics are Democrat. Going back to Sept. 26 Romney has only been ahead in one poll in Iowa, tied in two while Obama was ahead in nine. You can also find as many polls that state Obama is ahead in Virginia as you would polls that have Romney ahead. Obama was ahead in five of the last seven polls in Colorado.

You're wasting your time. He will just pick data points he agrees with and then tell you that you're wrong.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by whoman69

Obama was ahead in five of the last seven polls in Colorado.

Looks like three for Obama, three for Romney and one tie.

[whoman69]

Originally Posted by mnchiefsguy

How is it not true at all? Obama's lead in NH is less than a percent point in most polls. All of the polls you cited are within the margin of error, so I am not sure how you can dispute that.

Originally Posted by KC native

You're wasting your time. He will just pick data points he agrees with and then tell you that you're wrong.

He said Romney was ahead, straight and simple. Its one thing to say they are within margin of error and another to say that the candidate behind is ahead. You ignore the other points he made? He was wrong on every one of them.

[whoman69]

Originally Posted by Donger

Looks like three for Obama, three for Romney and one tie.

List of polls I have are:
PPP Obama +3 10/25
Grove Obama +3 10/24
Keating Research Obama +3 10/24
NBC/Marist tie 10/24
Rasmussen Romney +4 10/21
PPP Obama +5 10/18
Grove Obama +3 10/16

[Donger]

Originally Posted by whoman69

List of polls I have are:
PPP Obama +3 10/25
Grove Obama +3 10/24
Keating Research Obama +3 10/24
NBC/Marist tie 10/24
Rasmussen Romney +4 10/21
PPP Obama +5 10/18
Grove Obama +3 10/16

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...023.html#polls

[KC Dan]

Here is a 2010 Nevada Senate race prediction on Nov. 2nd from Nostradamus himself:

Stage of forecast	Reid Democrat	Angle Republican	Size of lead
Weighted polling average	45.5	47.8		+2.3
Adjusted polling average	44.7	46.8		+2.1
538 regression	39.4	49.9		+10.6
538 snapshot	44.2	47.2		+3.0
Nov. 2 projection	47.2 ± 4.0 pct. pt.	50.2 ± 4.0 pct. pt.		+3.0
Percentage chance that candidate wins race	16.6%	83.4%

Stage of forecast	Reid Democrat	Angle Republican	Size of lead
Weighted polling average	45.5	47.8		+2.3
Adjusted polling average	44.7	46.8		+2.1
538 regression	39.4	49.9		+10.6
538 snapshot	44.2	47.2		+3.0
Nov. 2 projection	47.2 ± 4.0 pct. pt.	50.2 ± 4.0 pct. pt.		+3.0
Percentage chance that candidate wins race	16.6%	83.4%

Angle 83.4%
Reid 16.6%

[patteeu]

Originally Posted by KC Dan

Here is a 2010 Nevada Senate race prediction on Nov. 2nd from Nostradamus himself:

Angle 83.4%
Reid 16.6%

It's math.

[WoodDraw]

Sometimes I wish 538 was still an independent website. It was more interesting back then...

[whoman69]

Originally Posted by KC Dan

Here is a 2010 Nevada Senate race prediction on Nov. 2nd from Nostradamus himself:

Angle 83.4%
Reid 16.6%

Of the 37 senate races, they got 35 right and you want to cherry pick one of those two? You also failed to point out both of those races they favored Republicans.

[AustinChief]

Originally Posted by whoman69

Of the 37 senate races, they got 35 right and you want to cherry pick one of those two?

And by "got right" you mean, they predicted 50%+ to the winner the day before the election? How many did he "get right" a month out? 2 months?

All so silly.

[whoman69]

In the interest of fairness they picked 36 of 37 gubernatorial races correctly, again erring on the side of Republicans.

Scorecard: 2008 49 of 50 states predicted correctly in presidential election (only miss was Indiana which was decided by 1 %.
2010 35 of 37 in senate
2010 36 of 37 in gubernatorial

[whoman69]

Originally Posted by AustinChief

And by "got right" you mean, they predicted 50%+ to the winner the day before the election? How many did he "get right" a month out? 2 months?

All so silly.

Your point is silly. He is not a prognosticator. The job of 538 is to make sense of polls and determine at any point of the election who is most likely to win. They do not try to determine if a candidate will implode or take off.

[AustinChief]

Originally Posted by whoman69

Your point is silly. He is not a prognosticator. The job of 538 is to make sense of polls and determine at any point of the election who is most likely to win. They do not try to determine if a candidate will implode or take off.

No, my point is that your overwhelming faith in 538 and the way YOU use it is silly. Yes, I know what he is, you claim to know but yet you beat people about the head with his numbers as if they are predictive.. they aren't. So stop it, you look silly.

You can't have it both ways. You can't crow about his numbers and act as if they are meaningful then when asked for numbers on the accuracy of his work at this point in time in past elections say "no no, it isn't meant to be predictive."

Do you get it now?