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Reload this Page Elections Mitt Romney set to win, maybe by a mile
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Old 10-31-2012, 09:51 AM  
petegz28 petegz28 is offline
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Mitt Romney set to win, maybe by a mile
One week from today, the Boston Herald’s front page will either read “Obama Pulls Out Victory” Or “Romney Wins.” (Actually, given that this is the Herald the headline will be something clever like, “He’s Barack In Charge!” or “Sweet Mitt-ory!”)

I predict the latter. One week from today, Mitt wins.

I’ll even go a step farther. I’ll ask the question poll watchers across America are thinking but afraid to ask: Is this election over?

If your source of news is MSNBC or the Boston Globe-Democrat, obviously not. If anything, you think President Obama is on the verge of a massive sweep from North Carolina to Nevada.

But if you’ve been watching the polls and the campaigns at all objectively, you’re starting to see a picture develop. One where Romney’s the winner well before bedtime.

I believe we’re on the verge of a solid Romney win for two reasons. One is the objective evidence. The other is the ugly desperation of the Obama campaign in its final days.

First the numbers. And let’s start with the big one: Before Gallup suspended polling due to Hurricane Sandy, Mitt Romney was at or above 50 percent among likely voters for 14 consecutive days. No candidate above 50 percent at this point has ever lost the presidential race.

Ever.

The president, on the other hand, has peaked at 47 percent. The Battleground Poll model shows Obama losing 52 percent to 47 percent. Rasmussen daily tracking has Obama losing 49 percent to 47 percent. Pew has him tied: 47 percent to 47 percent. But more important, all the polls show Obama sliding or stuck. None show any upward movement.

Obama supporters are quick to tell you “the only poll that matters is the one on Election Day.” Two things: a) that’s what candidates who are behind always say; b) this is election day.

Thanks to early voting, millions of votes have already been cast. Four years ago on this day — Halloweek — Gallup released a poll of folks who’d already voted and found Obama was beating John McCain by 15 points.

This year? He’s losing to Mitt Romney 52 percent to 45 percent — a set swing of 22 points. The wrong way.

But who cares if Obama loses the popular vote (and he will, by the way)? All that matters is winning the Electoral College vote in the “swing states!” That’s Obama’s path to victory!

OK. But what is a swing state? Forget Virginia and Ohio. Obama’s lost so much ground he’s been forced to send Joe Biden to Pennsylvania and Bill Clinton to Minnesota — a state so blue Ronald Reagan never carried it.

The president, on the other hand, is only up by 6 among the loony-left granola-crunchers of Oregon.

Those are the numbers. The campaign Obama’s running looks even worse.

Between desperate, last-second proposals for a “Secretary of Business” and embarrassing ads comparing voting for Obama to a girl losing her virginity, you can smell the desperation from the Obama camp.

These are the juvenile stunts of a second-tier congressional race, not the campaign of an incumbent president. Then again, has any other president posted a picture of his opponent in a dunce cap? Or called his opponent a “bullsh***er” on the record? Obama’s done both.

The Obama campaign is angry, it’s negative and it acts like — to quote Bill Clinton — its feelings are hurt. In a word: Losing.

More and more people sense it. Ben Domenech wrote at RealClearPoli tics.com about an “undertow” that seems to be pulling Obama’s support away. It’s not that Obama’s supporters have turned on him. They’ve just abandoned him. They’ve drifted away. Like so many of us, they’re just done with Obama.

If I’m wrong, I’m counting on you to mock me for it mercilessly next Wednesday. But I’m not wrong.

And isn’t it interesting how many people already seem to know it.

Michael Graham hosts an afternoon drive time talk show on 96.9 WTKK.

http://www.bostonherald.com/news/opi...pi#articleFull
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Old 10-31-2012, 02:04 PM   #16
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I need to see some pretty solid polling data in Mitt's favor before I hand him Ohio. Sorry. That state is still Obama's to lose.

A 2-point lead by Romney in Ohio from the poll conducted by Bubbleshit University in Youngstown doesn't exactly sway me. Obama has had control of that state for nearly the entire election. I at least need to see a collective favoring of Romney by Rasmussen, Gallop, and whatever other polling agency people trust.
www.billspetrino.com It was posted in a different thread.
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Old 10-31-2012, 02:30 PM   #17
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Rasmussen is a Republican leaning poll. If you only pay attention to that then you would think Romney will win.

Elections are not won by the popular vote nationally, so its irrelevant. Polls are also contradicting because they have different methods. Raw numbers don't agree with you.

Going back one week in polling:
Obama is ahead in 5 of 7 polls in CO with one tie
Obama is ahead in all polls in NV
Obama is ahead in 10 of 13 polls in OH with 2 ties
Obama is ahead in both polls in IA
Obama is ahead in 4 of 5 polls in NH
Virginia is split 2-2-2
Florida is split 3-3-2

Romney hasn't led a poll since 10/13 in PA.
Romney hasn't led a poll since 8/16 in MI.
Romney hasn't led a poll since 8/19 in WI thought the latest Ramussen calls it a tie.

538, Electoral-vote.com, Linzer, Huffpost pollster, RealClearPolitics, Talking Point Memo and Princeton Elect Consortium who all try to make sense of the conflicting polls all agree that the race has Obama ahead in the important battleground states.
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Old 10-31-2012, 02:32 PM   #18
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Originally Posted by Chief Henry View Post
www.billspetrino.com It was posted in a different thread.
That's not a poll, its a blog by an investor.
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Originally posted by Logical
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What the Raiders fan has said is true, our customs are different. What Al Davis has said is unimportant, and we do not hear his words.
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Old 10-31-2012, 02:34 PM   #19
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I don't think Rasmussen or Gallup do state specific polling. I know one of them doesn't (I think it was a guy from Gallup explaining this on a radio talk show one day) and I don't think the other does either.
Rasmussen does do state polls. They are usually the outilier.
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Old 10-31-2012, 02:42 PM   #20
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Originally Posted by whoman69 View Post
Rasmussen is a Republican leaning poll. If you only pay attention to that then you would think Romney will win.
2008 Poll Accuracy

#1 - Rasmussen http://www.fordham.edu/images/academ...20election.pdf

not electoral of course but Rasmussen polling must be given some credit since they were pretty much dead on last time. But, of course they lean right so just throw it out...
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Old 10-31-2012, 03:41 PM   #21
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Originally Posted by whoman69 View Post
Rasmussen is a Republican leaning poll. If you only pay attention to that then you would think Romney will win.
Based on what?
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Old 10-31-2012, 03:41 PM   #22
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Originally Posted by whoman69 View Post
Rasmussen does do state polls. They are usually the outilier.
OK, then it's Gallup that doesn't.
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Old 10-31-2012, 05:48 PM   #23
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This is for you Whoman and Direkshun. You can sing this on November 7th to console yourself.

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Old 10-31-2012, 05:53 PM   #24
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Old 10-31-2012, 06:56 PM   #25
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www.billspetrino.com It was posted in a different thread.


Wow.
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Old 10-31-2012, 07:10 PM   #26
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Real clear politics as of 7:09 on Halloween night have the race at a tie. They take all polls and average them.

I tend to think this favors BO because of his lead in BG states, but what the hell do I know.

www.realclearpolitics.com
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Old 10-31-2012, 07:31 PM   #27
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Originally Posted by oldandslow View Post
Real clear politics as of 7:09 on Halloween night have the race at a tie. They take all polls and average them.

I tend to think this favors BO because of his lead in BG states, but what the hell do I know.

www.realclearpolitics.com
Any of you, who follow the stock market, know what a moving average is.

Typically, you can have a break out movement, which moves the market above the average, and it takes some time before the moving average catches up to where the market is.

This averaging of the polls would tend to lag any real, substantive movements in opinion.

With that said, there has been a definite movement towards Romney, all the polls clearly indicate that. There are outlier polls, which get averaged into this poll, thus, they skew the results to a middle area.

Finally, the models are only as good as the electorate. If you believe, the composition, and makeup of this years electorate, is going to REMOTELY resemble that of 2008, then I have some fine, ready to move in beach front property in Jersey I would like to close on with you by the end of tomorrow.
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Old 11-01-2012, 03:16 PM   #28
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This is for you Whoman and Direkshun. You can sing this on November 7th to console yourself.

I love that song. I sing it all the time.
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Old 11-06-2012, 10:24 PM   #29
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A country mile!
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Old 11-06-2012, 10:28 PM   #30
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