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Old 08-07-2012, 07:21 PM  
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
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538

The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

Last edited by whoman69; 11-06-2012 at 09:58 AM.. Reason: latest update
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Old 10-31-2012, 12:38 PM   #691
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Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
That's by voter Reg. That does not say who they voted for. Contrary to popular belief a Dem can vote for a Repub and vice-versa
True but for either side I don't think it would be that significant. Could be wrong
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Old 10-31-2012, 12:44 PM   #692
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Originally Posted by dirk digler View Post
True but for either side I don't think it would be that significant. Could be wrong
I think it could. I know several Dems that are not voting for Obama. I know a few who are.

Aside from that I read an article that the Obama campaign is really pushing their most reliable voters to vote early which could effect his turnout on election day.


No one can say for sure but I have this gut feeling that Obama will not have near the support he had in 08. Not even close. I think there will be more Repub turnout than in 08 and I think a lot of the Indy's that went Obama will go Romeny. Again, it's just a hunch.
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Old 10-31-2012, 12:46 PM   #693
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Originally Posted by RINGLEADER View Post
Still comes back to turnout. Doesn't much matter how far ahead Obama/Romney are ahead/behind today if they're just pushing their election day vote up. If Romney's lead with independents holds then Obama is going to have to generate +5 Dem turnout advantage or he's toast. Conversely, if Romney doesn't get the GOP out to temper that historic advantage then he's toast.
The turnout argument makes the most sense IMO and there's no way that Obama gets close to the turnout he had in 08.

But this still leads back to the tracking sites. How close have their projections been in the past and how much has turnout effected them?

We're less than a week out and there seems to be consensus among the trackers.
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Old 10-31-2012, 01:00 PM   #694
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Quote:
Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
I think it could. I know several Dems that are not voting for Obama. I know a few who are.

Aside from that I read an article that the Obama campaign is really pushing their most reliable voters to vote early which could effect his turnout on election day.


No one can say for sure but I have this gut feeling that Obama will not have near the support he had in 08. Not even close. I think there will be more Repub turnout than in 08 and I think a lot of the Indy's that went Obama will go Romeny. Again, it's just a hunch.
The main reason why they are pushing early voters is to prevent people from getting frustrated about having to stay in long lines and just deciding not to vote. Also helps in case of election day chicanery.
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Old 10-31-2012, 01:03 PM   #695
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As far as turnout goes:

2000 – 39D, 35R, 27I

2004 – 37D, 37R, 26I
2008 – 39D, 32R, 29I
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Old 10-31-2012, 01:40 PM   #696
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Originally Posted by carlos3652 View Post
Wow - so Obama by a Landslide - got it...
That's hardly a landslide. You're looking a 1.9% in the popular vote and an average of 299 EC.
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Old 10-31-2012, 02:24 PM   #697
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dirk digler View Post
The main reason why they are pushing early voters is to prevent people from getting frustrated about having to stay in long lines and just deciding not to vote. Also helps in case of election day chicanery.
K
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Old 10-31-2012, 03:34 PM   #698
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Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
K
Ok why else?
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Old 10-31-2012, 03:41 PM   #699
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Originally Posted by whoman69 View Post
That's hardly a landslide. You're looking a 1.9% in the popular vote and an average of 299 EC.
well - but the probability of winning the states 70%+ is better than 2/3 odds - what i meant was, that those states are in the Blue. Not tossup. They will be able to call it pretty quickly...
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Old 10-31-2012, 04:25 PM   #700
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Ok why else?
politics....
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Old 10-31-2012, 06:47 PM   #701
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I doubt Romney takes MN, PA, or MI, but it could happen. Just like I don't think Obama wins FL, VA, or NC, but it could happen. Neither would surprise me much.
Obama is up 49% to Romney's 47% in Florida in the latest CBS news poll.

Romney was in Tampa today and 1/2 hour down the road Biden was in town.

From the local paper on Romney's visit.

Isabella Ferber, 10, waited in line for the Tampa rally with her parents from Bradenton to see Romney. She begged them to take her to the rally, she said, and decorated a sparkly poster that said "I skipped school to see the next president of the USA!"
When asked why supported Romney she replied, "He always tells the truth. His polices are reasonable and he always follows through and does what he says he will do."
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Old 10-31-2012, 07:28 PM   #702
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Originally Posted by carlos3652 View Post
well - but the probability of winning the states 70%+ is better than 2/3 odds - what i meant was, that those states are in the Blue. Not tossup. They will be able to call it pretty quickly...
The numbers are most likely that high due to the amount of polling behind them that agrees with it. If you have poll after poll saying Obama +3, that's not much of a difference.

A landslide would be predicting a +10 or 350+ EC.
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Old 10-31-2012, 07:41 PM   #703
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New numbers are up. The confidence in Obama winning has crept up to a 78.4% rate, close to the numbers he was hitting in the month following the Democratic convention before the first debate. I think its mainly higher because Romney is either not eating into the leads on the state level, or is running out of time to improve his numbers enough to make a difference.

Popular vote is now 50.5-48.6 so there is not much movement on that front.

Battleground states in order of closeness:
Florida 59.5% Romney
Virginia 60.1% Obama
Colorado 62.1% Obama
Iowa 75.8% Obama
New Hampshire 76% Obama
Ohio 79.3% Obama
North Carolina 81.4% Romney
Nevada 84.9% Obama
Wisconsin 88.9% Obama
Pennsylvania 95.3% Obama
Michigan 98.1% Obama
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Old 10-31-2012, 08:16 PM   #704
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They are going full force in florida now. Just in my city and area where people seem to think Florida is going to be decided.

In St. Petersburg, 2,591 Obama supporters have already pitched in 69,922 hours for this campaign, and a whole lot of them are volunteering again over the next few days to get out the vote in their neighborhoods.


Channel 5 in West Palm Beach Florida(a very rich Republican stronghold in Florida) obtained an internal Romney camp email. The email was from their Director pushing the panic button. It said, "Early and absentee balloting is starting to look troubling". The conclusion, the Democratic turnout machine is cleaning our clocks.
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Old 10-31-2012, 08:18 PM   #705
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Channel 5 in West Palm Beach Florida(a very rich Republican stronghold in Florida) obtained an internal Romney camp email. The email was from their Director pushing the panic button. It said, "Early and absentee balloting is starting to look troubling". The conclusion, the Democratic turnout machine is cleaning our clocks.
You get "cleaning our clocks" out of "starting to look troubling"?
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