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Old 10-30-2012, 10:33 PM  
Comrade Crapski Comrade Crapski is offline
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Winning: Mitt Romney heads into Democratic strongholds

PHOENIX, October 30, 2012 ― In a clear sign that Gov. Mitt Romney is winning this election, today the Romney campaign announced that they would begin to venture into the Democratic strongholds of Pennsylvania and Minnesota. Neither state has gone red in over 20 years.

Additionally, Romney campaign allies announced that they will be entering into the Democratic stronghold of Michigan, forcing the Obama campaign to spend precious ad dollars in a state that hasn’t voted Republican in 24 years.

It is typical of presidential campaigns to buy ads in markets in one state to help secure an adjacent state, but the Obama campaign isn’t spending money in Michigan to help win Ohio, but rather to secure Michigan.

Specifically, the Obama campaign is buying a week’s worth of ads in the Detroit area, which has a radio market that borders Ohio, but does not cross over like other markets do.

Furthermore, the latest poll from Michigan shows the race in a statistical tie at 47 percent. That’s a five percent turnaround from the beginning of the month, when Obama lead Romney by six percent in Michigan.

In Minnesota, it is likely that Romney is buying ad time to help garner votes in Wisconsin, as the media market crosses the state line. Romney has never lead in any poll from Minnesota, so that state is the longest shot for the former governor.

Every ad dollar the Obama campaign and its supporting Super Pacs have to spend in traditionally blue states is a dollar wasted by not being spent in Ohio, Virginia, Florida, North Carolina and Iowa.

These five states have been considered to be vital to helping both candidates secure the required 270 electoral votes, and the polls are all statistically tied.

The news that the Republican ticket is venturing into Pennsylvania, Michigan and Minnesota suggests the confidence the Romney camp feels of taking the election, a win that would turn into a landslide if those three states awarded him their electoral votes.

Pennsylvania has always been a swing-state, but has never actually delivered for the Republican side. To get a sense of how Pennsylvania could possibly go next week, just look at the 2010 gubernatorial election where a Republican beat the Democratic challenger.

The polls in Pennsylvania have also gotten significantly tighter over the months, another good sign for Romney.

While these ad buys may not actually turn the states into Romney’s column, it’s just a terrible place for an incumbent president to be in, with just seven days left of the campaign. If Romney can actually pull off a win in all three of those traditionally Democratic strongholds, he can afford to lose Virginia, Ohio, Colorado, or Wisconsin.

Romney’s path to 270 is looking brighter as the election enters the final seven days.

Henry D’Andrea is a Conservative opinion columnist at the Communities @ the Washington Times. Feel free to email Mr. D’Andrea at writedandrea@gmail.com and follow him on Twitter (@TheHenry)

http://communities.washingtontimes.c...c-strongholds/
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Old 10-31-2012, 09:13 PM   #16
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Old 10-31-2012, 09:39 PM   #17
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Ohio is gone. Romney's in hail-mary time now.
That data I've been seeing shows that even if Romney doesn't have the upperhand in Ohio, that state is the closest thing he's going to get to winning the election, so he better get his ass over there and start campaigning.
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Old 10-31-2012, 11:06 PM   #18
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That data I've been seeing shows that even if Romney doesn't have the upperhand in Ohio, that state is the closest thing he's going to get to winning the election, so he better get his ass over there and start campaigning.
The problem with Ohio is he has a fundamental, structural problem that is local to Ohio: the auto bailouts are very popular, the auto industry is big there, and Romney hasn't been able to get past being down by 2 or 3 for months despite leveling the full fury of his campaign apparatus at the state. For similar reasons, Michigan is also not in play.

If you are Romney and you have concluded that Ohio is gone, for local reasons not relevant outside of big auto states, then your only hope at this point, presuming Nevada is also gone (it is), is Pennsylvania or some other blue-leaner longshot like Minnesota.
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