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Old 10-31-2012, 11:12 AM  
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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Climate change is almost certainly responsible for storms like Sandy.

Starting a new thread on this, because this story has nothing to do with Al Gore. There's nothing more deniers of the true effects of climate change love to do more than reference Al Gore.

Don't give a shit about Gore. This is real science, and more and more experts in science and fields related to climate change are coming to the conclusion that the factors that produce storms are being amped up thanks to climate change.

Climate change is making storms like Sandy as big as they are, and as bizarre as they are. Climate change is making storms worse.

In addition to that, this is science that gigantic insurance corporations are starting to adjust to. It's so reliable that huge insurers are adjusting their bottom lines to account for it.

If global corporations are even starting to make radical adjustments to account for it, and you're still not buying it, ask yourself: how far from the reservation have you strayed?

http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/...rricane-sandy/

Did Climate Change Cause Hurricane Sandy?
By Mark Fischetti
October 30, 2012

If you’ve followed the U.S. news and weather in the past 24 hours you have no doubt run across a journalist or blogger explaining why it’s difficult to say that climate change could be causing big storms like Sandy. Well, no doubt here: it is.

The hedge expressed by journalists is that many variables go into creating a big storm, so the size of Hurricane Sandy, or any specific storm, cannot be attributed to climate change. That’s true, and it’s based on good science. However, that statement does not mean that we cannot say that climate change is making storms bigger. It is doing just that—a statement also based on good science, and one that the insurance industry is embracing, by the way. (Huh? More on that in a moment.)

Scientists have long taken a similarly cautious stance, but more are starting to drop the caveat and link climate change directly to intense storms and other extreme weather events, such as the warm 2012 winter in the eastern U.S. and the frigid one in Europe at the same time. They are emboldened because researchers have gotten very good in the past decade at determining what affects the variables that create big storms. Hurricane Sandy got large because it wandered north along the U.S. coast, where ocean water is still warm this time of year, pumping energy into the swirling system. But it got even larger when a cold Jet Stream made a sharp dip southward from Canada down into the eastern U.S. The cold air, positioned against warm Atlantic air, added energy to the atmosphere and therefore to Sandy, just as it moved into that region, expanding the storm even further.

Here’s where climate change comes in. The atmospheric pattern that sent the Jet Stream south is colloquially known as a “blocking high”—a big pressure center stuck over the very northern Atlantic Ocean and southern Arctic Ocean. And what led to that? A climate phenomenon called the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)—essentially, the state of atmospheric pressure in that region. This state can be positive or negative, and it had changed from positive to negative two weeks before Sandy arrived. The climate kicker? Recent research by Charles Greene at Cornell University and other climate scientists has shown that as more Arctic sea ice melts in the summer—because of global warming—the NAO is more likely to be negative during the autumn and winter. A negative NAO makes the Jet Stream more likely to move in a big, wavy pattern across the U.S., Canada and the Atlantic, causing the kind of big southward dip that occurred during Sandy.

Climate change amps up other basic factors that contribute to big storms. For example, the oceans have warmed, providing more energy for storms. And the Earth’s atmosphere has warmed, so it retains more moisture, which is drawn into storms and is then dumped on us.

These changes contribute to all sorts of extreme weather. In a recent op-ed in the Washington Post, James Hansen at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York blamed climate change for excessive drought, based on six decades of measurements, not computer models: “Our analysis shows that it is no longer enough to say that global warming will increase the likelihood of extreme weather and to repeat the caveat that no individual weather event can be directly linked to climate change. To the contrary, our analysis shows that, for the extreme hot weather of the recent past, there is virtually no explanation other than climate change.”

He went on to write that the Russian heat wave of 2010 and catastrophic droughts in Texas and Oklahoma in 2011 could each be attributed to climate change, concluding that “The odds that natural variability created these extremes are minuscule, vanishingly small. To count on those odds would be like quitting your job and playing the lottery every morning to pay the bills.”

Hanson also argued a year ago that Earth is entering a period of rapid climate change, so radical weather will be upon us sooner than we’d like. Scientific American just published a big feature article detailing the same point.

Indeed, if you’re a regular Scientific American reader, you might recall that another well-regarded scientist predicted behemoths such as Sandy in 2007. The article, by Kevin Trenberth, a senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, was presciently titled, “Warmer Oceans, Stronger Hurricanes.” Trenberth’s extensive analysis concluded that although the number of Atlantic hurricanes each year might not rise, the strength of them would.

Hurricane Sandy has emboldened more scientists to directly link climate change and storms, without the hedge. On Monday, as Sandy came ashore in New Jersey, Jonathan Foley, director of the Institute on the Environment at the University of Minnesota, tweeted: “Would this kind of storm happen without climate change? Yes. Fueled by many factors. Is [the] storm stronger because of climate change? Yes.”

Raymond Bradley, director of the Climate Systems Research Center at the University of Massachusetts, was quoted in the Vancouver Sun saying: “When storms develop, when they do hit the coast, they are going to be bigger and I think that’s a fair statement that most people could sign onto.”

A recent, peer-reviewed study published by several authors in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science concludes: “The largest cyclones are most affected by warmer conditions and we detect a statistically significant trend in the frequency of large surge events (roughly corresponding to tropical storm size) since 1923.”

Greg Laden, an anthropologist who blogs about culture and science, wrote this week in an online piece: “There is always going to be variation in temperature or some other weather related factor, but global warming raises the baseline. That’s true. But the corollary to that is NOT that you can’t link climate change to a given storm. All storms are weather, all weather is the immediate manifestation of climate, climate change is about climate.”

Now, as promised: If you still don’t believe scientists, then believe insurance giant Munich Re. In her October 29 post at the The New Yorker, writer Elizabeth Kolbert notes:

Quote:
Munich Re, one of the world’s largest reinsurance firms, issued a study titled “Severe Weather in North America.” According to the press release that accompanied the report, “Nowhere in the world is the rising number of natural catastrophes more evident than in North America.” … While many factors have contributed to this trend, including an increase in the number of people living in flood-prone areas, the report identified global warming as one of the major culprits: “Climate change particularly affects formation of heat-waves, droughts, intense precipitation events, and in the long run most probably also tropical cyclone intensity.”
Insurers, scientists and journalist are beginning to drop the caveats and simply say that climate change is causing big storms. As scientists collect more and more data over time, more of them will be willing to make the same data-based statements.
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Old 11-01-2012, 12:05 AM   #61
BigMeatballDave BigMeatballDave is offline
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Completely false.

And no matter where they form, they seldom maintain hurricane status that far north. And definitely not that far north this late in October.
False?

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Old 11-01-2012, 12:08 AM   #62
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Originally Posted by Dave View Post
False?

Oh. THOSE tropics.
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Old 11-01-2012, 12:10 AM   #63
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Originally Posted by Dave View Post
False?
False that all hurricanes start in the tropics.
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Old 11-01-2012, 12:21 AM   #64
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Originally Posted by cosmo20002 View Post
False that all hurricanes start in the tropics.
Quoted, just in case you do a little research before Dave gets back with you.
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Old 11-01-2012, 12:24 AM   #65
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False that all hurricanes start in the tropics.
Atlantic hurricanes begin as a disturbance off of Africa's west coast.

This is along the equator, which is also the tropics.

Correct?

There was nothing special about this hurricane. Other than geography.

I think the only reason it didn't head east was due to the position of the Jet stream.

Of course, I'm no meteorologist, but I am fascinated with the weather.

This is a natural cycle of this planet's weather system.

There is nothing we did to create it, nor can we stop it.
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Old 11-01-2012, 12:50 AM   #66
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I'll believe there is a crisis when the people saying there is a crisis start acting like it....to borrow a phrase.

In the mean time, the question of climate change is obviously 'yes' the climate is changing, has always been changing and always will change until star we like to call 'the Sun' stops working.

The more important question is what to do about it. If global temperatures are rising, does it make more sense to cripple our modern society, technology development, and willfully crawl back to a pre-industrial society in the 'all-in' hope that doing so will stop global warming? Or does it make more sense to deal with the consequences? For instance, building higher seawalls, getting Africa ready for increased rainfall, and cutting back on hunting licenses for polar bears?
False dichotomy.
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Old 11-01-2012, 01:22 AM   #67
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I guess all the similar large storms that hit the upper-east coast were because of global warming too...even if they occurred before global warming was supposed to have started.

There was a meteorologist on TWC who evidently studied such things and he was quite specific that because of how the water temps in the Pacific and Atlantic were entering a CYCLE of being at odds (he cited the 50's as another time period when the same thing happened) that we would see many of these kinds of storms over the next few years until things go back to normal. They asked him if it was global warming and he was quite clear that it was something that happens from time to time, whether we pumped out CO2 or not...
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Old 11-01-2012, 01:50 AM   #68
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I guess all the similar large storms that hit the upper-east coast were because of global warming too...even if they occurred before global warming was supposed to have started.

There was a meteorologist on TWC who evidently studied such things and he was quite specific that because of how the water temps in the Pacific and Atlantic were entering a CYCLE of being at odds (he cited the 50's as another time period when the same thing happened) that we would see many of these kinds of storms over the next few years until things go back to normal. They asked him if it was global warming and he was quite clear that it was something that happens from time to time, whether we pumped out CO2 or not...
I haven't seen or read anything that's confirmed that.

If you have anything, it'd be nice to see.
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Old 11-01-2012, 03:13 AM   #69
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I just have no idea where to start with this.
Of course you don't. That's why you didn't even try to refute it.
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Old 11-01-2012, 07:37 AM   #70
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Old 11-01-2012, 07:41 AM   #71
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Of course you don't. That's why you didn't even try to refute it.
That would be accurate.
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Old 11-01-2012, 07:48 AM   #72
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http://www.economist.com/blogs/freee...sandy?fsrc=rss

Hurricane Sandy: Costs to come
by R.A.
Oct 31st 2012, 17:03

THE economic approach to global warming is relatively straightforward. The emission of greenhouse gases generates a negative spillover—global warming—that harms others. Someone driving a car emits carbon dioxide into the atmosphere which contributes to climate change, but because most of the cost of the car's contribution to warming will be felt by people other than the driver, he has an incentive to drive too much. Aggregate that decision to emit too much across all of the world's population, and you get a serious economic problem.

Luckily, there is a solution. By taxing the emission of greenhouse gases, one can align private and public costs. The cost of the driver's emissions will be "internalised", he'll drive less, emissions will fall, and warming will slow. All that remains is to tot up an estimate of the "social cost of carbon" and convert that into an optimal tax rate. And in fact, many models reckon the tax need not be too high, as it makes sense to accommodate quite a lot of warming. The costs of climate change will mount over time, but so too will global income, the thinking goes. Economic actors are resilient and will be able to adapt. All in all, we shouldn't expect global warming to dent expected GDP growth so much that a stifling tax rate is necessary.

There is some wisdom in this analysis. Remarkably, Americans have adopted what is effectively an even more sanguine view of the harm from warming, by refusing to tax carbon and investing quite conservatively in green technology and research. But as the devastation from Hurricane Sandy makes clear, the economic approach is a bit too anti-septic and simplistic a way of understanding and responding too an incredibly complex and potentially catastrophic climate phenomenon. The American approach is out-and-out reckless.

With the superstorm now dissipating, estimates of its economic impact are beginning to emerge. Kate Mackenzie comments on some of them here. Goldman Sachs economist Jan Hatzius notes that damage estimates of $10 billion to $20 billion look small and may well be revised up (Hurricane Katrina was responsible for roughly $113 billion in damage). Yet the observed impact of the storm on economic numbers could be even smaller. October data will probably take a hit, but much of the shortfall may be made up in November and December such that fourth-quarter GDP will hardly register the event. Pimco's Mohamed El-Erian reckons that the storm will show up in the fourth-quarter data, but mostly because state and federal governments are less fiscally willing and able to provide support. Still, the fact that such an epic storm might not even knock the GDP statistics off track lends credence to those who argue, for instance, that things like a massively expensive sea wall to protect New York City or an Apollo programme for green energy would represent useless waste.

But there are two problems with this mode of thinking. One is that the economic resiliency that allows us to shift economic activity across time and geography, holding down the cost of such storms, has its limits. People cluster together in New York City, despite the high cost of living, because of the extraordinary advantages of being there, surrounded by other skilled professionals. There are "returns to scale" that hold New York together—productivity per person rises with population and density. Given limited disruption, the city will quickly bounce back, but a larger disaster could disperse enough of the city's people and businesses to undermine the scale that acts as New York's gravity. That could generate very large economic losses. New York can't easily be replaced, and even if it were logistically possible to create another megacity there's no guarantee that resources would re-congeal there. They might stick, instead, to lots of smaller cities: a much less productive distribution.

The more serious issue, however, is simply that GDP is not capturing everything we care about. GDP is a flow of income, for one thing. A storm that destroys existing wealth could actually raise the flow of production in the short term as people rebuild, such that higher GDP growth might nonetheless mean less wealth overall. Moreover, GDP is a very imperfect measure of human welfare. Even if GDP and wealth were relatively unharmed by the storm, we might nonetheless want to prevent a great deal of human suffering. The damage to America's northeast pales in comparison with the destruction wrought in Haiti, but because Haitians are so poor the economic cost of the damage there is almost imperceptible. The fact that the average Haitian emits about a hundredth as much carbon dioxide each year as the typical American suggests that unaccounted-for economic injustice may be at least as big a concern with global warming as underestimated human costs.

And so it would be entirely appropriate if the damage done by Sandy shakes Americans out of complacency on the issue of global warming, despite the relatively tolerable price tag of the storm. The storm is costlier than the estimated bill reflects. And future storms will be costlier still.

Many scientists and journalists are cautious in listing climate change as a causal factor behind a storm like Sandy. Understandably so: weather emerges as part of a complex system, and it would be impossible to say whether a storm would or would not have materialised without global warming. But scientists are becoming ever less shy in drawing a line between a higher frequency of "extreme" weather events and a warming climate. Climate shifts the probability distribution of such events, and so global warming may not have "caused" Sandy, but it makes Sandy-like storms more probable. As the ever-less-funny joke goes, 500-year weather events seem to pop up every one or two years these days. Frequency and intensity of storms aside, future hurricanes that hit the east coast will do so atop rising sea levels. Contemplate the images of seawater rushing over Manhattan streets and into subway and highway tunnels. Then consider that sea levels are rising. And then reflect on the fact that New York is very much like a typical megacity in being located on the water; tracing a finger around America's coastlines leads one past most of the country's largest and richest cities.

Americans may absorb all of this and decide that the smart choice continues to be a course of inaction. They may continue to believe that the storms—and droughts and heat waves and blizzards and floods—to come will be manageable because they'll be richer and well-equipped to adapt. Hopefully, there will at least be a better sense of what that is likely to mean and the trade-offs it will involve. Adaptation will be an ongoing, costly slog, with a side order of substantial human suffering. It will be one American icon after another threatened. Adaptation is not going to be easy. Hopefully Americans will ask themselves whether it's so much worse than the alternatives—high carbon taxes or large public investments or both—after all.
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Old 11-01-2012, 07:57 AM   #73
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A category 1 hurricane, yes.

Sandy is a really, really weird storm.
Sandy isn't a weird storm....it's a cat1 hurricane.

But...

It's now mixing in with a front coming in from the west and a front coming in from the north up in Canada.
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Old 11-01-2012, 09:16 AM   #74
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Sandy isn't a weird storm....it's a cat1 hurricane.

But...

It's now mixing in with a front coming in from the west and a front coming in from the north up in Canada.
What’s that, you mean cold dry air met with warm moist air and created a storm? CLIMATE CHANGE!!!ONE
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Old 11-01-2012, 09:18 AM   #75
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Atlantic hurricanes begin as a disturbance off of Africa's west coast.

This is along the equator, which is also the tropics.

Correct?

There was nothing special about this hurricane. Other than geography.
"Begin as a disturbance..." Well, geez, I guess then you could back it up further and say that hurricanes begin in the middle of the Saraha where the hot desert winds start stirring things up.

Most do not achieve storm, let alone hurricane status until 1000s of miles later, and that can and does happen far away from 'the tropics.'

There was a least two things special about this hurricane. One is that it maintained it hurricane status all the way up to the New York area. Those are infrequent, but certainly not unprecedented. The other, and much, much rarer aspect, is that it made it that far north in the last days of October.
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cosmo20002 is obviously part of the inner Circle.cosmo20002 is obviously part of the inner Circle.cosmo20002 is obviously part of the inner Circle.cosmo20002 is obviously part of the inner Circle.cosmo20002 is obviously part of the inner Circle.cosmo20002 is obviously part of the inner Circle.cosmo20002 is obviously part of the inner Circle.cosmo20002 is obviously part of the inner Circle.cosmo20002 is obviously part of the inner Circle.cosmo20002 is obviously part of the inner Circle.cosmo20002 is obviously part of the inner Circle.
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