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Old 08-07-2012, 07:21 PM  
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
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538

The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

Last edited by whoman69; 11-06-2012 at 09:58 AM.. Reason: latest update
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Old 11-02-2012, 06:59 AM   #781
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Is it starting to settle in yet? That its the 4th quarter with 2 minutes left and Romney needs a TD, the 2-pt conversion, an onside kick and another score?
Actually, it is more like Joe Montana with his team down by 5 needing to go 80 yards for the win with 2 minutes to go. Sure you would rather have the lead than not, but 25% of the time in that situation you are going to lose.
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Old 11-02-2012, 07:13 AM   #782
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Old 11-02-2012, 08:28 AM   #783
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I know we have been focusing on who is going to POTUS but looking at the Senate numbers it is pretty much a lock that Dems will retain and the House will stay in Republican hands though with less seats in their control.
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Old 11-02-2012, 08:31 AM   #784
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Originally Posted by dirk digler View Post
I know we have been focusing on who is going to POTUS but looking at the Senate numbers it is pretty much a lock that Dems will retain and the House will stay in Republican hands though with less seats in their control.
Senate: 52 R and 48 D+I (87.6% probability)
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Old 11-02-2012, 08:39 AM   #785
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Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
Senate: 52 R and 48 D+I (87.6% probability)
Says Dick Morris, right?
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Old 11-02-2012, 08:42 AM   #786
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Originally Posted by Mr. Kotter View Post
Says Dick Morris, right?
Those are my numbers based on extensive, proprietary analysis. You're welcome to tweet them or put them on your facebook page as long as you give me credit.
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Old 11-02-2012, 08:46 AM   #787
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Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
Senate: 52 R and 48 D+I (87.6% probability)
I think you got the R and D reversed
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Old 11-02-2012, 08:54 AM   #788
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Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
Those are my numbers based on extensive, proprietary analysis. You're welcome to tweet them or put them on your facebook page as long as you give me credit.
I'll tweet the realclearpolitics instead, now that even they reluctantly admitting the truth, instead of trying to create a bandwagon effect...thanks though.

(Obama up today, instead of insisting that Romney had a lead as they'd been doing for weeks.)
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Old 11-02-2012, 09:18 AM   #789
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Originally Posted by Mr. Kotter View Post
I'll tweet the realclearpolitics instead, now that even they reluctantly admitting the truth, instead of trying to create a bandwagon effect...thanks though.

(Obama up today, instead of insisting that Romney had a lead as they'd been doing for weeks.)
Seriously, I could have told you that was going to happen a month ago. I am NOT in Obama's back pocket and think he has had a failed 4 years. I am also not voting for him.

Nevertheless, RW screeching asided, he is gonna win this election.
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Old 11-02-2012, 09:24 AM   #790
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I notice nobody wants to put out a poll in Indiana after the Mourdock fiasco.
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Old 11-02-2012, 09:25 AM   #791
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Originally Posted by dirk digler View Post
I know we have been focusing on who is going to POTUS but looking at the Senate numbers it is pretty much a lock that Dems will retain and the House will stay in Republican hands though with less seats in their control.
Depends on how many GOP show up and how many DEM show up. Though in most of the competitive senate races they don't enjoy the advantage with INDs that Romney has held.

Of course, most of the damage has already been done in terms of Obamacare and the banking laws. In a second term Obama won't need Congress to "fill in the blanks" on those laws and people will start feeling the negative effects of both. Remember, there was a reason why the laws were designed to not take effect until a possible Obama second term...
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Old 11-02-2012, 09:26 AM   #792
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Originally Posted by Mr. Kotter View Post
I'll tweet the realclearpolitics instead, now that even they reluctantly admitting the truth, instead of trying to create a bandwagon effect...thanks though.

(Obama up today, instead of insisting that Romney had a lead as they'd been doing for weeks.)

How can there be a conspiracy when all they do is average polls? LOL
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Old 11-02-2012, 09:28 AM   #793
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What would republicans like to have seen Obama do regarding the economy during his first term (that he de didn't do)? I don't really know much about it, being an outsider.
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Old 11-02-2012, 09:33 AM   #794
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Originally Posted by oldandslow View Post
Seriously, I could have told you that was going to happen a month ago. I am NOT in Obama's back pocket and think he has had a failed 4 years. I am also not voting for him.

Nevertheless, RW screeching asided, he is gonna win this election.
I've been saying it for weeks. After the first debate, that was Romeny's only real opening....and he failed to close the deal. FTR, I've been disappointed in Obama as well; the most striking thing about that though, is how utterly incompetent this makes the GOP.

Nominating a guy who is so unappealing that he can't win an election that is, in all seriousness, being handed to the GOP, if only they would have nominated an electable candidate. You may disagree with the analogy, but I'm convinced the GOP has done precisely what the Dems did in 2004---pissing away a golden opportunity, due to strict adherence to dogmatic ideology.
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Old 11-02-2012, 09:36 AM   #795
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What would republicans like to have seen Obama do regarding the economy during his first term (that he de didn't do)? I don't really know much about it, being an outsider.
Slash all spending (except military,) and lower taxes (especially for the uber-wealthy.) That's their answer for, literally, all problems.
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