538

[whoman69]

The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

[KC native]

Originally Posted by patteeu

A monkey can bang on a typewriter too.

trollface.jpg

[Pitt Gorilla]

Originally Posted by cdcox

Silver doesn't publish his model but describes it in enough detail that I could develop something very similar, as could any other person with a decent background in statistics and data modeling. So to say I don't understand the model is incorrect.

It's becoming clearer that pat doesn't understand mathematics and so he assumes nobody else does either.

[LiveSteam]

Originally Posted by KC native

trollface.jpg

Im about to leave on a date with a super hot blond. From Burlington Iowa no less.

Have a great night Nacho

[KC native]

Originally Posted by LiveSteam

Im about to leave on a date with a super hot blond. From Burlington Iowa no less.

Have a great night Nacho

Cool story bro

[KC native]

Originally Posted by Pitt Gorilla

It's becoming clearer that pat doesn't understand mathematics and so he assumes nobody else does either.

He's trolling.

[Direckshun]

Originally Posted by KC native

He's trolling.

Yup. He's in character.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by Pitt Gorilla

It's becoming clearer that pat doesn't understand mathematics and so he assumes nobody else does either.

Neither does this guy.
Donald J. Trump ‏@realDonaldTrump
We don’t want to have a recount in any of the battleground states. Obama will steal it. Make sure all your friends and family vote.

[cosmo20002]

Originally Posted by LiveSteam

Im about to leave on a date with a super hot blond. From Burlington Iowa no less.

Have a great night Nacho

Stay safe--make sure he wears a condom.

[patteeu]

Originally Posted by Pitt Gorilla

Once again, I highly doubt you're this stupid. You don't have to know them precisely to approximate them fairly accurately. I'm not sure how this could be clearer for you.

If you don't understand the assumptions you don't understand the model and when it breaks down.

[patteeu]

Originally Posted by cdcox

Silver doesn't publish his model but describes it in enough detail that I could develop something very similar, as could any other person with a decent background in statistics and data modeling. So to say I don't understand the model is incorrect.

But yet, I take it that you haven't done so.

[patteeu]

Originally Posted by Pitt Gorilla

It's becoming clearer that pat doesn't understand mathematics and so he assumes nobody else does either.

I would hope that you understand mathematics better than I do given your profession, but Nate Silver's model is still a black box to you even if the techniques he uses aren't complete mysteries. You've already admitted as much. Don't be mad.

[cdcox]

Originally Posted by patteeu

But yet, I take it that you haven't done so.

Let's say that in your profession, you make spreadsheets to keep track of a budget for installing an assembly line that builds widgets. Then you interview for a job in a related field that is new to you where you are going to track the budget to build an assembly line that builds gadgets for the company that hires you. During the interview they ask you if you can budget this type of project. Are you going to answer, "No, I have no idea how to do that"?

[whoman69]

Originally Posted by cdcox

Let's say that in your profession, you make spreadsheets to keep track of a budget for installing an assembly line that builds widgets. Then you interview for a job in a related field that is new to you where you are going to track the budget to build an assembly line that builds gadgets for the company that hires you. During the interview they ask you if you can budget this type of project. Are you going to answer, "No, I have no idea how to do that"?

don't feed the troll. he's gone into full idiot mode.

[Pitt Gorilla]

Originally Posted by patteeu

If you don't understand the assumptions you don't understand the model and when it breaks down.

It's not that we don't understand them; it's that we wouldn't likely be able to reproduce them with 100% accuracy. However, it's not like his data points are great mysteries. We know (within an acceptable epsilon) what he's using and we can approximate his outcomes very accurately.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by patteeu

If you don't understand the assumptions you don't understand the model and when it breaks down.

Not true. If he was to publicly announce his whole model. Then everyone could do it and he would lose his business.

Does Coke give out everything in its drink? No, just some. Others try but fail to get the exact formula. It doesnt make Coke anything less than the real thing. Nate is the best at analyzing polling data just because he doesn't announce everything doesn't make him less than the real thing.