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Old 08-07-2012, 07:21 PM  
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
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538

The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

Last edited by whoman69; 11-06-2012 at 09:58 AM.. Reason: latest update
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Old 11-03-2012, 08:29 PM   #916
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Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
Let's say that in your profession, you make spreadsheets to keep track of a budget for installing an assembly line that builds widgets. Then you interview for a job in a related field that is new to you where you are going to track the budget to build an assembly line that builds gadgets for the company that hires you. During the interview they ask you if you can budget this type of project. Are you going to answer, "No, I have no idea how to do that"?
Of course not. But I'm not going to lie to them and say I know what's in their spreadsheet either.
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Old 11-03-2012, 08:32 PM   #917
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I would hope that you understand mathematics better than I do given your profession, but Nate Silver's model is still a black box to you even if the techniques he uses aren't complete mysteries. You've already admitted as much. Don't be mad.
Is that true? His model isn't publicly defined?
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Old 11-03-2012, 08:32 PM   #918
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Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
Of course not. But I'm not going to lie to them and say I know what's in their spreadsheet either.
Are you a large man?
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Old 11-03-2012, 08:34 PM   #919
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It's not that we don't understand them; it's that we wouldn't likely be able to reproduce them with 100% accuracy. However, it's not like his data points are great mysteries. We know (within an acceptable epsilon) what he's using and we can approximate his outcomes very accurately.
But you haven't done it. I'm not criticizing your intelligence or your ability to understand his model given enough exposure to it and enough time to work on it. I'm saying at this point in time, you don't know it. And most of the people running with Silver's projections as indicators of how the election will turn out have even less of an idea what he's doing than you do.
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Old 11-03-2012, 08:34 PM   #920
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Originally Posted by Pitt Gorilla View Post
It's not that we don't understand them; it's that we wouldn't likely be able to reproduce them with 100% accuracy. However, it's not like his data points are great mysteries. We know (within an acceptable epsilon) what he's using and we can approximate his outcomes very accurately.
Yep. They are simple Monte Carlos with some adjustments. Nothing special. As many have mentioned, a model is only as good as its assumptions. Wednesday will (hopefully for our sake) let us know if the assumptions in the polls are close to the voting population.

On another note, not that any of you probably care, but I live in NJ and drove to Harrisburg, PA today for a Ryan rally. It was great. I'm ten minutes away from tomorrow night's Romney rally outside Philly. They are expecting tens of thousands. Pretty cool to be close to a sorta-swing-state. Just starting seeing the ads. Don't know how folks in OH, VA, CO, FL can stand it.

Last edited by The Mayor; 11-03-2012 at 08:35 PM.. Reason: Fn typo.
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Old 11-03-2012, 08:36 PM   #921
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Originally Posted by mlyonsd View Post
Is that true? His model isn't publicly defined?
It's not completely publicly defined, but as cdcox said earlier there are some pretty extensive write-ups that give a lot of information about how it works.
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Old 11-03-2012, 08:38 PM   #922
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Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
Not true. If he was to publicly announce his whole model. Then everyone could do it and he would lose his business.

Does Coke give out everything in its drink? No, just some. Others try but fail to get the exact formula. It doesnt make Coke anything less than the real thing. Nate is the best at analyzing polling data just because he doesn't announce everything doesn't make him less than the real thing.
You forgot to end your prayer to Nate with "Amen".
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Old 11-03-2012, 08:42 PM   #923
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Are you a large man?
I'm too big to jockey a horse in the Kentucky Derby but I'd have a tough time playing NT in the NFL. Why do you ask?
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Old 11-03-2012, 08:51 PM   #924
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Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
You forgot to end your prayer to Nate with "Amen".
Deflection instead of addressing my point is not the correct response. Try again.
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I believe Hitler hated Jews and had a lot of them killed. I dont believe it was anywhere close to 6 million though. I'm not an anti-semite; I just think that number has been severely inflated and there is a lot of evidence that supports this belief.
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Old 11-03-2012, 08:54 PM   #925
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On another note, not that any of you probably care, but I live in NJ and drove to Harrisburg, PA today for a Ryan rally.
On Fox they said that NJ was like a post-apocalyptic hellhole where the living envy the dead (frankly, I thought that's what NJ was always like). No food or gas and zombies roaming freely. And all Obama's fault. How did you make it out alive?
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As long as Jesus Christ was the president of the US and approved of it Yes.
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Old 11-03-2012, 08:54 PM   #926
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I'm too big to jockey a horse in the Kentucky Derby but I'd have a tough time playing NT in the NFL. Why do you ask?
I was thinking of cool nicknames for you and Fatty Patty came to mind.
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Old 11-03-2012, 09:07 PM   #927
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I was thinking of cool nicknames for you and Fatty Patty came to mind.
Truly doing the people's work there, Diddy.
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Old 11-03-2012, 09:10 PM   #928
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I was thinking of cool nicknames for you and Fatty Patty came to mind.
He's not fat and a helluva lot nicer in person and he doesnt drink up all your beer.
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Originally Posted by MTG#10 View Post
I believe Hitler hated Jews and had a lot of them killed. I dont believe it was anywhere close to 6 million though. I'm not an anti-semite; I just think that number has been severely inflated and there is a lot of evidence that supports this belief.
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Old 11-03-2012, 09:15 PM   #929
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He's not fat and a helluva lot nicer in person and he doesnt drink up all your beer.
I don't think he's fat and I'm just playing with him him and he can't help but be nicer in person and I don't know what the hell you're talking about with drinking up all the beer.
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Old 11-03-2012, 09:23 PM   #930
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I don't know what the hell you're talking about with drinking up all the beer.
inside joke
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I believe Hitler hated Jews and had a lot of them killed. I dont believe it was anywhere close to 6 million though. I'm not an anti-semite; I just think that number has been severely inflated and there is a lot of evidence that supports this belief.
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