Attention petezg23: Bets are taxes on bullshit.

[Direckshun]

As many of you know, I am engaged in two high-stakes bets this election season, and at this point I am surely to win them. So whatever last statements LVNHACK and sportsshrink need to say here in DC, please say them, because your time is short.

But it is too frequently the case here in DC that somebody can just spout off bullshit and never have to be accountable for it.

That's why I really like betting. It proves to you folks that I'm always genuinely sincere in my statements, and it exposes people like patteeu who just say shit as frauds due to his complete resilience from ever entering into a bet that give his words consequences.

So allow this thread's purpose to be twofold: (1.) all hail the forced intellectual honesty of a bet, and (2.) to put Pete's ass on the line for his hilarious prediction that Romney will win Ohio.

Pete: if you think Romney is going to win Ohio, then enter into a bet with me.

I'll let you pick the terms, so long as they aren't unequal.

I'll let you decide the consequences, so long as they aren't unequal.

But it has to be hinged on one idea: that if Obama wins Ohio, you lose, and I win.

Time to pay your taxes, Pete.

http://marginalrevolution.com/margin...-bullshit.html

A Bet is a Tax on Bullshit
by Alex Tabarrok
on November 2, 2012 at 7:35 am

Nate Silver, whose models give Obama a high probability of winning reelection, has offered one of his critics a bet. “Putting your money where your mouth is,” is a time-honored principle of integrity in my view but the NYTimes Public Editor is very upset. Margaret Sullivan, however, never offers an argument against betting instead treating it as unseemly.

[Betting is] inappropriate for a Times journalist, which is how Mr. Silver is seen by the public even though he’s not a regular staff member.

“I wouldn’t want to see it become newsroom practice,” said the associate managing editor for standards, Philip B. Corbett. He described Mr. Silver’s status as a blogger — something like a columnist — as a mitigating factor…

…When he came to work at The Times, Mr. Silver gained a lot more visibility and the credibility associated with a prominent institution. But he lost something, too: the right to act like a free agent with responsibilities to nobody’s standards but his own.

The closest to an argument against betting is this:

…whatever the motivation behind it, the wager offer is a bad idea – giving ammunition to the critics who want to paint Mr. Silver as a partisan who is trying to sway the outcome.

My best parse of the argument is that by betting Silver has given himself an interest in the election and this hurts his credibility. Nothing, however, could be further from the truth.

A properly structured bet is the most credible guarantor of rigorous disinterest. In order to prove his point, Silver is not required to take the Obama side of the bet! At the odds implied by his model (currently between 3 and 4 to 1) Silver should be willing to take either side of a modest bet. Indeed, we could hold a coin toss, heads Silver takes the Obama side, tails he takes Romney.

In fact, the NYTimes should require that Silver, and other pundits, bet their beliefs. Furthermore, to remove any possibility of manipulation, the NYTimes should escrow a portion of Silver’s salary in a blind trust bet. In other words, the NYTimes should bet a portion of Silver’s salary, at the odds implied by Silver’s model, randomly choosing which side of the bet to take, only revealing to Silver the bet and its outcome after the election is over. A blind trust bet creates incentives for Silver to be disinterested in the outcome but very interested in the accuracy of the forecast.

Overall, I am for betting because I am against bullshit. Bullshit is polluting our discourse and drowning the facts. A bet costs the bullshitter more than the non-bullshitter so the willingness to bet signals honest belief. A bet is a tax on bullshit; and it is a just tax, tribute paid by the bullshitters to those with genuine knowledge.

[mlyonsd]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

Then let's bet money, pat.

How much are you thinking?

How about a sixpack? I'll send you a sixpack of a beer of your choice. You send me a sixpack of my choice.

Now beer is ok?

[Direckshun]

Originally Posted by mlyonsd

Now beer is ok?

I'm pretzel-ing to get Pat on the record.

You want to revisit your original offer?

[mlyonsd]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

I'm pretzel-ing to get Pat on the record.

You want to revisit your original offer?

What was the argument?

[Direckshun]

Originally Posted by mlyonsd

What was the argument?

I have no idea. I really don't.

We can just bet in the winner of the election, if you so wish.

[LVNHACK]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

As many of you know, I am engaged in two high-stakes bets this election season, and at this point I am surely to win them. So whatever last statements LVNHACK and sportsshrink need to say here in DC, please say them, because your time is short.

Hold on hotshot....As your boy toy SNR has stated....Our bet was banishment from CP....Not DC....Just so you got it right

[mlyonsd]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

I have no idea. I really don't.

We can just bet in the winner of the election, if you so wish.

Naw, the passion is gone.

[Direckshun]

Originally Posted by LVNHACK

Hold on hotshot....As your boy toy SNR has stated....Our bet was banishment from CP....Not DC....Just so you got it right

Absolutely.

If Obama wins the election and Ohio = SS is banished from DC, you take a 1 year hiatus from CP.

If Obama wins the election but loses Ohio = SS is banished from DC, I take a 1 year hiatus from CP.

If Obama loses the election but wins Ohio = I am banished from DC, you take a 1 year hiatus from CP.

If Obama loses the election and Ohio = I am banished from DC and take a 1 year hiatus from CP.

But we both know how this is going to pan out.

[Direckshun]

Originally Posted by mlyonsd

Naw, the passion is gone.

Next time.

[SNR]

[LVNHACK]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

Absolutely.

If Obama wins the election and Ohio = SS is banished from DC, you take a 1 year hiatus from CP.

If Obama wins the election but loses Ohio = SS is banished from DC, I take a 1 year hiatus from CP.

If Obama loses the election but wins Ohio = I am banished from DC, you take a 1 year hiatus from CP.

If Obama loses the election and Ohio = I am banished from DC and take a 1 year hiatus from CP.

But we both know how this is going to pan out.

No, no, no....O wins I'm gone....O loses your gone....None of this side action, it's all or nothing....

[Direckshun]

Originally Posted by LVNHACK

No, no, no....O wins I'm gone....O loses your gone....None of this side action, it's all or nothing....

The deal was Ohio. That was the deal you agreed to. Need me to dig it up, or are you trying to alter the bet?

I'm open to altering the bet, but the bet was Ohio.

[LVNHACK]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

The deal was Ohio. That was the deal you agreed to. Need me to dig it up, or are you trying to alter the bet?

I'm open to altering the bet, but the bet was Ohio.

And I thought it was flat out winning....But yeah, you're up to altering it, I'm good with that....

[Direckshun]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

Do any conservatives in this thread truly believe that Ohio is going to Romney?

Step up to the plate. You get my signature for the rest of 2012 if you're right. I get yours for the rest of 2012 if you're wrong.

Originally Posted by LVNHACK

Yeah I win.....you leave the Planet for a year...no mults....nothing....you're banished.....You win, I'll do the same....

Originally Posted by Direckshun

Ha. You serious? I'm in if you're in.

Originally Posted by LVNHACK

I said it didn't I ?

Originally Posted by Direckshun

LVNHACK, ladies and gentlemen, stepping up to the plate. Swallowing the conservative media's propaganda so deeply that he believes Romney has Ohio in the bag.

I applaud you sir.

After Ohio's results are officially in, and Ohio is decided for Obama, you owe ChiefsPlanet one year of radio silence. A true self-imposed exile with no mults.

Should Romney pull the upset and land Ohio, I will of course do that instead.

America salutes you, brother.

The bet was Ohio.

So -- you want to change it to the Electoral College winner of the whole country, then?

[LVNHACK]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

The bet was Ohio.

So -- you want to change it to the Electoral College winner of the whole country, then?

Ahhhh, yeah I didn't pay attention to the Ohio thing....**** yeah, I got nothing to lose....All in...

[Direckshun]

Originally Posted by LVNHACK

Ahhhh, yeah I didn't pay attention to the Ohio thing....**** yeah, I got nothing to lose....All in...

It doesn't matter, really. Whoever wins Ohio wins the election this year. The odds that the winner of Ohio loses the election is nil.

Regardless, to give you a better shot, we'll make it the winner of the national Electoral College.

1 year self-imposed CP ban.