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Old 11-04-2012, 08:52 PM  
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For visual learners: Why Obama has Romney by the nutsack

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2...ite-house.html

Yeah, this is a bit of a repost. Suck my balls. This point hasn't been made in this visual way yet, which is kind of cool and really demonstrates well how screwed Romney is.

The reason why Obama has him cornered is thus: Assume Obama takes Ohio and Wisconsin (which are likely Obama states at this point). Look at the number of ways Romney can win now. Just one. That's it.

Screw voter turnout, screw all that other garbage. Just one. He has to clean sweep all of those states to win. And while I have no doubt he'll take Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, and even Colorado, those other states don't look very good for him. Nevada is pretty much a lost cause, and I think Iowa isn't going to fall his way either.

He's just out of options. That's his problem. There are very few ways he can pull this off where he doesn't depend on one or both of Wisconsin and Ohio.
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Old 11-05-2012, 11:43 AM   #31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr. Kotter View Post
Yep. Same for Virginia. The give-away is Romney throwing a hail Mary in PA....hoping to undo losing FL or VA.
So he's campaigning in PA so he gets points in VA or FL? BRILLIANT!
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Old 11-05-2012, 11:43 AM   #32
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And if Romney wins either Penn or Minn the hole thing is as worthless as the Chiefs on Sunday.
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Old 11-05-2012, 11:44 AM   #33
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When Romney wins what we will be the reasons given? Fraud due to the inaccuracy of polling data?

Will the media throw Obama under the bus and blame him and try to save his ideology?
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Old 11-05-2012, 11:45 AM   #34
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Two things will determine who wins:

IND - If CBS and other polls that have Romney up double-digits with IND proves to be accurate Obama is history. Personally, I think it will tighten, but at a double-digit IND lead would be a tidal wave that a state-by-state strategy couldn't fend off.

PARTY TURNOUT - Tied to the above. If the GOP enthusiasm is as high as polls show, Obama again is in deep trouble. If he loses INDs (even by single digits) he needs to pull several percent more DEMs.

Other than that it is all guessing. But if Obama can get a 4%+ advantage in party turnout and keep Romney around under +6 with INDs he will win. If not, he will lose. If he does he'll take all the battlegrounds IMO. If not, Romney will take them.
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Old 11-05-2012, 11:46 AM   #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RINGLEADER View Post
Two things will determine who wins:

IND - If CBS and other polls that have Romney up double-digits with IND proves to be accurate Obama is history. Personally, I think it will tighten, but at a double-digit IND lead would be a tidal wave that a state-by-state strategy couldn't fend off.

PARTY TURNOUT - Tied to the above. If the GOP enthusiasm is as high as polls show, Obama again is in deep trouble. If he loses INDs (even by single digits) he needs to pull several percent more DEMs.

Other than that it is all guessing. But if Obama can get a 4%+ advantage in party turnout and keep Romney around under +6 with INDs he will win. If not, he will lose. If he does he'll take all the battlegrounds IMO. If not, Romney will take them.
You are SO behind. Romney's already lost. See above.
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Old 11-05-2012, 11:53 AM   #36
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I'm completely convinced that 90% of people who post in here are nutjobs. Is there something about enjoying political discussion that causes people to completely abandon their ability to discuss things rationally?
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Old 11-05-2012, 11:54 AM   #37
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That tactic lost the election for you this time and will probably lose it for you next time.
I didn't run for anything last time, not this time either.
That tactic had nothing to do with why obama duped his way into the White House last time, it came in response to his being elected as a means of minimizing the damage of his disastrous policy making .

It has nothing to do with whether he will be re-elected either. I wish it did. that would mean the election is being decided upon merits. Unfortunately anyone who votes for obama is doing so in spite of the merits, not because of them.
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Old 11-05-2012, 11:56 AM   #38
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I'm completely convinced that 90% of people who post in here are nutjobs. Is there something about enjoying political discussion that causes people to completely abandon their ability to discuss things rationally?
Go **** yourself, neo Fascist!
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Old 11-05-2012, 12:01 PM   #39
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DaFace View Post
I'm completely convinced that 90% of people who post in here are nutjobs. Is there something about enjoying political discussion that causes people to completely abandon their ability to discuss things rationally?
I think it's mostly civil. There's a bit of that "WTF is Matt Cassel doing trying to sneak it on the goalline and fumbling" emotion that seeps in from time-to-time, but I think we all more or less know where everyone stands and are respectful of the other side.

If you're dispassionate about all this and just look at the data you have to say that Obama has a slight lead within the margin of error. If you think the weighting in polls like CNN which anticipates a +11 Dem turnout (and would be showing a Romney lead well outside the margin of error if it embraced the voter enthusiasm that shows up in a lot of polls) then you think Romney has a chance.

Again, my prediction is that the winner will take most of the battlegrounds. But I don't have a clue who that is. If I had to guess, I'd probably conclude Obama has a slightly better chance, but if he wins it will be a landslide. Same for Romney.
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Old 11-05-2012, 12:02 PM   #40
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And if Romney wins either Penn or Minn the hole thing is as worthless as the Chiefs on Sunday.
He's not.

Ohio is the state he had to have, and it seems he cannot garner enough support there.
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Old 11-05-2012, 12:06 PM   #41
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bewbies View Post
So he's campaigning in PA so he gets points in VA or FL? BRILLIANT!
No, he now stands to possibly lose VA or even FL....so he's hoping to make PA a fall-back position.
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Old 11-05-2012, 12:06 PM   #42
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He's not.

Ohio is the state he had to have, and it seems he cannot garner enough support there.
I don't understand what evidence the left is using to come to this conclusion?

Polls that show it within the margin of error?

Lower early/absentee voting for Dems?

Higher early/absentee voting for GOP?

I know Obama is up in most polls and that certainly indicates a sentiment. Kerry was also up in the polls on election day 2004. He lost by six-figures.
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Old 11-05-2012, 12:06 PM   #43
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr. Kotter View Post
No, he now stands to possibly lose VA or even FL....so he's hoping to make PA a fall-back position.
If that was the Romney plan they're done.

If Obama wins VA/FL he's winning PA.
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Old 11-05-2012, 12:13 PM   #44
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoover View Post
And if Romney wins either Penn or Minn the hole thing is as worthless as the Chiefs on Sunday.
If the Chiefs trade Matt Cassel for Aaron Rodgers and hire a good coach, they'll win a playoff game next year
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Old 11-05-2012, 12:14 PM   #45
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Obama isn't winning Florida. And Romney isn't winning Wisconsin or Nevada. Enough with these "Uhhhohhhh last minute surge!" pieces of shit I see all over the place.
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