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Old 11-04-2012, 08:52 PM  
SNR SNR is offline
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For visual learners: Why Obama has Romney by the nutsack

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2...ite-house.html

Yeah, this is a bit of a repost. Suck my balls. This point hasn't been made in this visual way yet, which is kind of cool and really demonstrates well how screwed Romney is.

The reason why Obama has him cornered is thus: Assume Obama takes Ohio and Wisconsin (which are likely Obama states at this point). Look at the number of ways Romney can win now. Just one. That's it.

Screw voter turnout, screw all that other garbage. Just one. He has to clean sweep all of those states to win. And while I have no doubt he'll take Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, and even Colorado, those other states don't look very good for him. Nevada is pretty much a lost cause, and I think Iowa isn't going to fall his way either.

He's just out of options. That's his problem. There are very few ways he can pull this off where he doesn't depend on one or both of Wisconsin and Ohio.
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Old 11-05-2012, 12:15 PM   #46
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Originally Posted by RINGLEADER View Post
I don't understand what evidence the left is using to come to this conclusion?

Polls that show it within the margin of error?

Lower early/absentee voting for Dems?

Higher early/absentee voting for GOP?

I know Obama is up in most polls and that certainly indicates a sentiment. Kerry was also up in the polls on election day 2004. He lost by six-figures.
No Kerry wasn't. Poll of polls at real clear politics gave Bush the lead by a couple of points.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html

Minn is outside the margin for error.

PA has Obama up about 4 - avg all polls.
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Old 11-05-2012, 12:15 PM   #47
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RINGLEADER View Post
If that was the Romney plan they're done.

If Obama wins VA/FL he's winning PA.
Agreed. Which is, precisely, why I say--it is done.
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Old 11-05-2012, 12:21 PM   #48
cosmo20002 cosmo20002 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RINGLEADER View Post
I don't understand what evidence the left is using to come to this conclusion?

I know Obama is up in most polls and that certainly indicates a sentiment. Kerry was also up in the polls on election day 2004. He lost by six-figures.
I believe Kerry was up in some of the exit polling on the day of.
"Six figures" is not a huge amount. George W "lost" by six figures and still won.
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Old 11-05-2012, 12:26 PM   #49
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Originally Posted by oldandslow View Post
He's not.

Ohio is the state he had to have, and it seems he cannot garner enough support there.
Says who?

I've been telling you guys that these polls don't pick up voters intensity in rural areas. I know a lot of informed people who believe Romney will win Ohio. And I'm not talking about some talking head or member of the media. I'm talking number crunchers who don't looks at polls, but look at voters.
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Old 11-05-2012, 12:32 PM   #50
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I think the Media is trying to make this into a horse race.
Sorry to disapoint but I think Obama has this.
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Old 11-05-2012, 12:33 PM   #51
oldandslow oldandslow is offline
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Originally Posted by Hoover View Post
Says who?

I've been telling you guys that these polls don't pick up voters intensity in rural areas. I know a lot of informed people who believe Romney will win Ohio. And I'm not talking about some talking head or member of the media. I'm talking number crunchers who don't looks at polls, but look at voters.
We'll see. You can claim the polls are all wrong, and they may be in a state or two. But MINN is not in play. And I doubt PA is. All the rural voters in the state don't outweigh Philly and Pittsburg.
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Old 11-05-2012, 12:37 PM   #52
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I've seen Minn polling data for the last 8 weeks. It is in play.

The current PPP Poll that shows Voter ID and Marriage Amendment is LAUGHABLE. Those are not 40% issues, not even close. Those two issues being on the ballot is what is helping make the state competitive. Can Romney win it? Maybe. The state is in play and that says a lot.
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Old 11-05-2012, 12:38 PM   #53
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What makes Penn interesting is that it doesn't allow early voting. You should also remember that the state has elected very conservative Republicans to the U.S. Senate. That means people in Philly and Pitt voted for them too.
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Old 11-05-2012, 12:40 PM   #54
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I'm completely convinced that 90% of people who post in here are nutjobs. Is there something about enjoying political discussion that causes people to completely abandon their ability to discuss things rationally?
I think it's more of an inability/unwillingness to look at things from someone else's perspective. You end up with a group of people talking past each other but not listening.
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Old 11-05-2012, 12:42 PM   #55
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Originally Posted by Hoover View Post
Says who?

I've been telling you guys that these polls don't pick up voters intensity in rural areas. I know a lot of informed people who believe Romney will win Ohio. And I'm not talking about some talking head or member of the media. I'm talking number crunchers who don't looks at polls, but look at voters.
Number crunchers who underestimate the Dem ground game--especially in the urban centers...
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Old 11-05-2012, 12:59 PM   #56
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Originally Posted by Mr. Kotter View Post
Number crunchers who underestimate the Dem ground game--especially in the urban centers...
No, not at all.

Number crunchers who look at what's going on now as well as historical trends.
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Old 11-05-2012, 01:01 PM   #57
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No, not at all.

Number crunchers who look at what's going on now as well as historical trends.
We'll know in 36 hours who's number crunchers are "right," I guess.

Don't expect me to wish you luck--not this time, at least.
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Old 11-05-2012, 01:03 PM   #58
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I may be a Republican, but I'm not the type that gets over invested in a candidate. Life goes on regardless of who wins.
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Old 11-05-2012, 01:09 PM   #59
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Originally Posted by Hoover View Post
I may be a Republican, but I'm not the type that gets over invested in a candidate. Life goes on regardless of who wins.
Agreed. As much as a Romney win would dissappoint me, it's hardly the end of the friggin' world like Moonbat retards are predicting. Likewise, as unappealing as Obama is, it's hardly the end of the friggin' world as RWNJ talk-radio dittoheads are claiming either. Lesser of two bad choices. Same as it ever is, it seems.

It's entertaining though, at times, watching the shit-storm between the lunatic fringe types. Heh.
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Old 11-05-2012, 01:12 PM   #60
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I may be a Republican, but I'm not the type that gets over invested in a candidate. Life goes on regardless of who wins.
Kudos to you, we could use more who thought of themselves as Americans first and party affiliations second. That goes for both sides of the spectrum no matter how far left or right you may be.
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