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Old 08-07-2012, 08:21 PM  
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
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538

The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

Last edited by whoman69; 11-06-2012 at 10:58 AM.. Reason: latest update
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Old 11-05-2012, 08:16 PM   #1186
dirk digler dirk digler is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mnchiefsguy View Post
Maybe, maybe not. Obama is so worried about PA that he got Bill Clinton to go there at the last minute to do four campaign stops throughout the state. Given the number of states that are toss up states, I do not think the Obama campaign would waste such talent in PA if it was locked up.
They are sending Bill to help out solidify states and help with certain candidates. He was in MN last night trying to get Bachmann out and Casey is facing a tough challenge in PA.
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Old 11-05-2012, 08:17 PM   #1187
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Originally Posted by dirk digler View Post
From that quote it appears they are all but conceding Ohio and hoping for PA to turn blue. Even Rasmussen has said in the last few days it was pure fantasy for them to win PA or Michigan
If that was the case...why was Bill Clinton in PA? Wouldn't it make more sense to send him to Florida, VA, or Ohio? Clinton is a masterful campaigner, I just don't see Obama being stupid enough to send Clinton somewhere that is already locked up...especially considering Clinton crammed four campaign stops and criss-crossed the state in one day. Maybe there is something I am missing?
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Old 11-05-2012, 08:17 PM   #1188
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Originally Posted by Hoover View Post
Newsflash, Romney can win without Ohio or Penn.
Can, sure. Probable? Realistic? Most would say no.
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Old 11-05-2012, 08:18 PM   #1189
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Obama is in trouble is Romney wins either state IMO
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Old 11-05-2012, 08:18 PM   #1190
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoover View Post
Newsflash, Romney can win without Ohio or Penn.
True but he would have to win everything else. From what I have read today they have given up on Nevada so there goes that scenario
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Old 11-05-2012, 08:19 PM   #1191
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoover View Post
Newsflash, Romney can win without Ohio or Penn.
Sure, and it is possible to win a football game without scoring a touchdown. Possible, but really, really difficult and not probable.
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Old 11-05-2012, 08:20 PM   #1192
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Originally Posted by Hoover View Post
Obama is in trouble is Romney wins either state IMO
Every poll and every non-Republican pundit and even some Republican pundits are giving Iowa to Obama. You still think Iowa is a lock for Romney.
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Old 11-05-2012, 08:21 PM   #1193
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dirk digler View Post
They are sending Bill to help out solidify states and help with certain candidates. He was in MN last night trying to get Bachmann out and Casey is facing a tough challenge in PA.
I suppose that could be the case. But given how close the numbers are, wouldn't you want the best campaigner of the last 25 years stumping for you in states that matter, as opposed to trying to get a House candidate elected that won't make any difference in the long term, given the make up of the House at the moment? Seems to defy common sense, but you could very well be right.
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Old 11-05-2012, 08:22 PM   #1194
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Here is what I don't get about some of you on the Left. On one hand the Left says "Romney is desperate, that's why he is still in Florida and trying to expand the map in PA"

By the same token you see Obama in Florida, sending his peeps to PA and he goes to Wisconsin.

If the line of thinking is "Why is Romney in Florida, he should have it locked up"

or

"Romney is desperate which is why he is trying for PA"

Then the same has to apply for Obama with Wisconsin, PA and Florida

There is no sensible reason Obama should be in Wisconsin if he, as Romney with Florida, should have it locked up.

The fact is this race is razor thin at the moment and I don't think either side is taking anything for granted and is trying to exploit every opportunity that exists.
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Old 11-05-2012, 08:24 PM   #1195
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dirk digler View Post
True but he would have to win everything else. From what I have read today they have given up on Nevada so there goes that scenario
Wrong, he doesn't need Nevada either.
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Old 11-05-2012, 08:24 PM   #1196
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
Every poll and every non-Republican pundit and even some Republican pundits are giving Iowa to Obama. You still think Iowa is a lock for Romney.
Yep.
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Old 11-05-2012, 08:26 PM   #1197
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mnchiefsguy View Post
I suppose that could be the case. But given how close the numbers are, wouldn't you want the best campaigner of the last 25 years stumping for you in states that matter, as opposed to trying to get a House candidate elected that won't make any difference in the long term, given the make up of the House at the moment? Seems to defy common sense, but you could very well be right.
Well Michelle did call Hillary's best friend a terrorist. Casey is in a pretty tough race as well. I am not denying the race hasn't tightened in a state like PA but let's not forget McCain campaigned in PA the last few days as well.
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Old 11-05-2012, 08:27 PM   #1198
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One of Obama's top campaign aides just admitted that the Penn race has tightened.
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Old 11-05-2012, 08:28 PM   #1199
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoover View Post
Wrong, he doesn't need Nevada either.
Ok what state are you thinking about then? Michigan?
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Old 11-05-2012, 08:28 PM   #1200
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoover View Post
Newsflash, Romney can win without Ohio or Penn.
With a strong sweep of the rest of the swing states, yeah. And monkeys might fly out my butt too.
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