538

[whoman69]

The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

[Pitt Gorilla]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

NS was pretty much perfect while patteeu and the doubters were wrong. Shocking that math wins out

Austinchief was even dumber than pat.

[KC_Connection]

Originally Posted by alnorth

yeah, if there's a flaw in the model, it might be that he is too modest. I do respect his desire to reflect the possibility of a systematic bias, but now with the 2012 results we have a lot more data points arguing that systematic bias is less likely.

Seems like the Princeton prof's odds were even closer to what it actually was.

[Pitt Gorilla]

Originally Posted by Hoover

My point is Democrats always have 5x the offices Republicans do in Iowa. Its a meaningless stat.

It seems to have helped in Iowa recently, no?

[cosmo20002]

Originally Posted by cdcox

Hoover isn't pompous at all. He just shared his opinion. He's a good guy.

No, he was kind of a dick about it.

[cosmo20002]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

He's a Republican pollster and acts like a partisan dick whenever he can.

This.

[KC_Connection]

At the moment, only Florida stands in the way of Silver's model being a perfect 50 for 50. And Obama still holds a slight lead there.

[alnorth]

Originally Posted by KC_Connection

At the moment, only Florida stands in the way of Silver's model being a perfect 50 for 50. And Obama still holds a slight lead there.

I don't see where the votes are for Romney. I think he might have a net 8k outstanding, but Obama's got a lot more than that out there, and a lead much bigger than 8k anyway.

The networks would have called it by now if Florida was needed.

[WoodDraw]

Kudos to Nate Silver for not being a douchebag either. The other day the NYT public editor criticized him, and he never even responded (other than to her). And he's been pretty much AWOL today. I'm sure that's killing him,

[FD]

Originally Posted by Pitt Gorilla

Austinchief was even dumber than pat.

They should both probably take a long vacation. They have a lot to think about. Austinchief in particular.

[alnorth]

Originally Posted by WoodDraw

Kudos to Nate Silver for not being a douchebag either. The other day the NYT public editor criticized him, and he never even responded (other than to her). And he's been pretty much AWOL today. I'm sure that's killing him,

He's pretty active (and hilarious) on twitter, but he has not been gloating. Yet. He'll probably gloat in a very clinical way, analyzing in excruciating detail why his critics were wrong and why Rasmussen sucks.

[DaneMcCloud]

Originally Posted by Pitt Gorilla

Austinchief was even dumber than pat.

I've noticed Pato's absence tonight.

I imagine he's curled up in a pool of urine and tears.

[KC_Connection]

Originally Posted by alnorth

I don't see where the votes are for Romney. I think he might have a net 8k outstanding, but Obama's got a lot more than that out there, and a lead much bigger than 8k anyway.

The networks would have called it by now if Florida was needed.

Probably, yeah.

[WoodDraw]

Originally Posted by alnorth

He's pretty active (and hilarious) on twitter, but he has not been gloating. Yet. He'll probably gloat in a very clinical way, analyzing in excruciating detail why his critics were wrong and why Rasmussen sucks.

I haven't seen much on twitter. The only thing he said was something about this being a good time to link to his book.


Well anyway, I won't take the time to go through this thread and point out all the dumb ass comments. Although even I thought the switch to Florida was a joke...

[KC_Connection]

Originally Posted by WoodDraw

Kudos to Nate Silver for not being a douchebag either. The other day the NYT public editor criticized him, and he never even responded (other than to her). And he's been pretty much AWOL today. I'm sure that's killing him,

I saw that pointless criticism. Odd because the NYT needs Silver more than Silver needs them.

I don't know what his plans are for after this election or whether he'll continue to work in politics with 538 going forward, but I'd be surprised if he was involved with the NYT.

[WoodDraw]

Originally Posted by KC_Connection

I saw that pointless criticism. Odd because the NYT needs Silver more than Silver needs them.

I'm actually a big fan of the new public editor. She's done a good job, perhaps aside from that article. But she published another one where she turned it all over to contrasting opinions. She's really active talking to both sides of issues.

I think Nate has another year on his contract. No matter what happens, he'll be getting paid more money. There was an article somewhere that said how much NYT traffic is brought in solely by 538.