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Old 08-07-2012, 07:21 PM  
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
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538

The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

Last edited by whoman69; 11-06-2012 at 09:58 AM.. Reason: latest update
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Old 11-06-2012, 11:24 PM   #1426
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Originally Posted by dirk digler View Post
NS was pretty much perfect while patteeu and the doubters were wrong. Shocking that math wins out
Austinchief was even dumber than pat.
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Old 11-06-2012, 11:27 PM   #1427
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Originally Posted by alnorth View Post
yeah, if there's a flaw in the model, it might be that he is too modest. I do respect his desire to reflect the possibility of a systematic bias, but now with the 2012 results we have a lot more data points arguing that systematic bias is less likely.
Seems like the Princeton prof's odds were even closer to what it actually was.
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Old 11-06-2012, 11:47 PM   #1428
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Originally Posted by Hoover View Post
My point is Democrats always have 5x the offices Republicans do in Iowa. Its a meaningless stat.
It seems to have helped in Iowa recently, no?
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Old 11-06-2012, 11:59 PM   #1429
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Hoover isn't pompous at all. He just shared his opinion. He's a good guy.
No, he was kind of a dick about it.
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Old 11-07-2012, 12:00 AM   #1430
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He's a Republican pollster and acts like a partisan dick whenever he can.
This.
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Old 11-07-2012, 12:17 AM   #1431
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At the moment, only Florida stands in the way of Silver's model being a perfect 50 for 50. And Obama still holds a slight lead there.
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Old 11-07-2012, 12:19 AM   #1432
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Originally Posted by KC_Connection View Post
At the moment, only Florida stands in the way of Silver's model being a perfect 50 for 50. And Obama still holds a slight lead there.
I don't see where the votes are for Romney. I think he might have a net 8k outstanding, but Obama's got a lot more than that out there, and a lead much bigger than 8k anyway.

The networks would have called it by now if Florida was needed.
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Old 11-07-2012, 12:21 AM   #1433
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Kudos to Nate Silver for not being a douchebag either. The other day the NYT public editor criticized him, and he never even responded (other than to her). And he's been pretty much AWOL today. I'm sure that's killing him,
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Old 11-07-2012, 12:23 AM   #1434
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Originally Posted by Pitt Gorilla View Post
Austinchief was even dumber than pat.
They should both probably take a long vacation. They have a lot to think about. Austinchief in particular.
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Old 11-07-2012, 12:24 AM   #1435
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Kudos to Nate Silver for not being a douchebag either. The other day the NYT public editor criticized him, and he never even responded (other than to her). And he's been pretty much AWOL today. I'm sure that's killing him,
He's pretty active (and hilarious) on twitter, but he has not been gloating. Yet. He'll probably gloat in a very clinical way, analyzing in excruciating detail why his critics were wrong and why Rasmussen sucks.
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Old 11-07-2012, 12:26 AM   #1436
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Originally Posted by Pitt Gorilla View Post
Austinchief was even dumber than pat.
I've noticed Pato's absence tonight.

I imagine he's curled up in a pool of urine and tears.
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Old 11-07-2012, 12:27 AM   #1437
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Originally Posted by alnorth View Post
I don't see where the votes are for Romney. I think he might have a net 8k outstanding, but Obama's got a lot more than that out there, and a lead much bigger than 8k anyway.

The networks would have called it by now if Florida was needed.
Probably, yeah.
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Old 11-07-2012, 12:27 AM   #1438
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Originally Posted by alnorth View Post
He's pretty active (and hilarious) on twitter, but he has not been gloating. Yet. He'll probably gloat in a very clinical way, analyzing in excruciating detail why his critics were wrong and why Rasmussen sucks.
I haven't seen much on twitter. The only thing he said was something about this being a good time to link to his book.


Well anyway, I won't take the time to go through this thread and point out all the dumb ass comments. Although even I thought the switch to Florida was a joke...
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Old 11-07-2012, 12:32 AM   #1439
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Originally Posted by WoodDraw View Post
Kudos to Nate Silver for not being a douchebag either. The other day the NYT public editor criticized him, and he never even responded (other than to her). And he's been pretty much AWOL today. I'm sure that's killing him,
I saw that pointless criticism. Odd because the NYT needs Silver more than Silver needs them.

I don't know what his plans are for after this election or whether he'll continue to work in politics with 538 going forward, but I'd be surprised if he was involved with the NYT.
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Old 11-07-2012, 12:35 AM   #1440
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I saw that pointless criticism. Odd because the NYT needs Silver more than Silver needs them.
I'm actually a big fan of the new public editor. She's done a good job, perhaps aside from that article. But she published another one where she turned it all over to contrasting opinions. She's really active talking to both sides of issues.

I think Nate has another year on his contract. No matter what happens, he'll be getting paid more money. There was an article somewhere that said how much NYT traffic is brought in solely by 538.
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