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Old 08-07-2012, 07:21 PM  
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
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538

The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

Last edited by whoman69; 11-06-2012 at 09:58 AM.. Reason: latest update
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Old 11-07-2012, 12:39 AM   #1441
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Originally Posted by WoodDraw View Post
I'm actually a big fan of the new public editor. She's done a good job, perhaps aside from that article. But she published another one where she turned it all over to contrasting opinions. She's really active talking to both sides of issues.

I think Nate has another year on his contract. No matter what happens, he'll be getting paid more money. There was an article somewhere that said how much NYT traffic is brought in solely by 538.
That's for sure. He'll be a wanted commodity, even more than he already was after 2008.
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Old 11-07-2012, 12:47 AM   #1442
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oh, and not that many of us were surprised, but yeah, people change party self-identification a lot. Maybe not how they are registered, but its dumb to re-weight by self-identified party ID.

Romney won among self-identified independents.

Obama won among self-identified moderates.

What does that tell you? To me, that means a lot of former republicans now self-identify as independent, and a lot of former independent moderates now call themselves moderate democrats. Rasmussen cant detect this with his inane method, but the serious pollsters did.
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Old 11-07-2012, 12:53 AM   #1443
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I believe its only appropriate to post on this thread tonight.

My read of the presidential race in Iowa and beyond was more than off. In Iowa Obama dominated in eastern Iowa, which isn't out of character, but its an area that Romney has/had been strong in for quite some time. The most shocking result was that Obama got 60% of the vote in Scott County. That's an ass kicking. He also increased his margin in Polk County which shocked me.

Not to make excuses, but the one thing that may have clouded by opinion of Iowa was the two western Iowa congressional races. Tom Latham defeated another sitting member of congress (Boswell) by 8 points. Over 20,000 people who voted for Obama in Polk County also pulled the lever for Latham.

Steve King, who someone on here said had nothing going on, defeated Christie Vilsack, the wife of a former Iowa Governor and current US Sec of Ag Tom Vilsack, got her ass kicked. King won by 8 points as well.

There is nothing for me to hang my hat on, but I did predict that Republicans would lose seats in the Iowa House. Nailed it actually, which sucks. Iowa Republicans had a chance to win the state senate but two incumbents going down put an end to that.

Anyway, I'm here to eat my crow. Nate Silver is a GOD.

Hoover
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Old 11-07-2012, 12:58 AM   #1444
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoover View Post
I believe its only appropriate to post on this thread tonight.

My read of the presidential race in Iowa and beyond was more than off. In Iowa Obama dominated in eastern Iowa, which isn't out of character, but its an area that Romney has/had been strong in for quite some time. The most shocking result was that Obama got 60% of the vote in Scott County. That's an ass kicking. He also increased his margin in Polk County which shocked me.

Not to make excuses, but the one thing that may have clouded by opinion of Iowa was the two western Iowa congressional races. Tom Latham defeated another sitting member of congress (Boswell) by 8 points. Over 20,000 people who voted for Obama in Polk County also pulled the lever for Latham.

Steve King, who someone on here said had nothing going on, defeated Christie Vilsack, the wife of a former Iowa Governor and current US Sec of Ag Tom Vilsack, got her ass kicked. King won by 8 points as well.

There is nothing for me to hang my hat on, but I did predict that Republicans would lose seats in the Iowa House. Nailed it actually, which sucks. Iowa Republicans had a chance to win the state senate but two incumbents going down put an end to that.

Anyway, I'm here to eat my crow. Nate Silver is a GOD.

Hoover
I'm not sure there was ever a legitimate reason to doubt Silver's model. Good to hear from a pro, though.
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Old 11-07-2012, 01:00 AM   #1445
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoover View Post
I believe its only appropriate to post on this thread tonight.

My read of the presidential race in Iowa and beyond was more than off. In Iowa Obama dominated in eastern Iowa, which isn't out of character, but its an area that Romney has/had been strong in for quite some time. The most shocking result was that Obama got 60% of the vote in Scott County. That's an ass kicking. He also increased his margin in Polk County which shocked me.

Not to make excuses, but the one thing that may have clouded by opinion of Iowa was the two western Iowa congressional races. Tom Latham defeated another sitting member of congress (Boswell) by 8 points. Over 20,000 people who voted for Obama in Polk County also pulled the lever for Latham.

Steve King, who someone on here said had nothing going on, defeated Christie Vilsack, the wife of a former Iowa Governor and current US Sec of Ag Tom Vilsack, got her ass kicked. King won by 8 points as well.

There is nothing for me to hang my hat on, but I did predict that Republicans would lose seats in the Iowa House. Nailed it actually, which sucks. Iowa Republicans had a chance to win the state senate but two incumbents going down put an end to that.

Anyway, I'm here to eat my crow. Nate Silver is a GOD.

Hoover
Well, no shit. Can't believe no one suggested that to you in the last few days.
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Old 11-07-2012, 05:40 AM   #1446
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http://news.cnet.com/8301-13510_3-57...of-the-quants/

Quote:
In the end, big data won.

Not the presidential election -- although there's no doubt that President Obama's victory tonight was aided by a sophisticated understanding of the American electorate borne of years of analysis of voting trends and demographic shifts.

No, big data -- and its patron saint, Nate Silver, won the battle to predict the outcome of the contest between Obama and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. Where breathless pundits brandishing equivocating polls shouted from the rooftops over the last few weeks that the race for the White House was a "tossup," or "too close to call," Silver and other poll aggregators sat back and calmly told anyone who would listen that the math told another story: Obama's re-election was never in danger.
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Old 11-07-2012, 06:05 AM   #1447
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoover View Post
I believe its only appropriate to post on this thread tonight.

My read of the presidential race in Iowa and beyond was more than off. In Iowa Obama dominated in eastern Iowa, which isn't out of character, but its an area that Romney has/had been strong in for quite some time. The most shocking result was that Obama got 60% of the vote in Scott County. That's an ass kicking. He also increased his margin in Polk County which shocked me.

Not to make excuses, but the one thing that may have clouded by opinion of Iowa was the two western Iowa congressional races. Tom Latham defeated another sitting member of congress (Boswell) by 8 points. Over 20,000 people who voted for Obama in Polk County also pulled the lever for Latham.

Steve King, who someone on here said had nothing going on, defeated Christie Vilsack, the wife of a former Iowa Governor and current US Sec of Ag Tom Vilsack, got her ass kicked. King won by 8 points as well.

There is nothing for me to hang my hat on, but I did predict that Republicans would lose seats in the Iowa House. Nailed it actually, which sucks. Iowa Republicans had a chance to win the state senate but two incumbents going down put an end to that.

Anyway, I'm here to eat my crow. Nate Silver is a GOD.

Hoover
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Old 11-07-2012, 06:32 AM   #1448
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Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud View Post
I've noticed Pato's absence tonight.

I imagine he's curled up in a pool of urine and tears.
Good
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Old 11-07-2012, 06:51 AM   #1449
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alnorth View Post
Math and large sample sizes don't lie, if you are losing, you are losing.
This is a dumb statement for someone who thinks they know polling to make.
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Old 11-07-2012, 06:51 AM   #1450
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Kudos to Hoover for showing up and taking it like a man.

It is looking like other polling firms like PPP called this very good as well. And I hope we can bookmark this thread because Rasmussen was way off and they should never be heard from again.
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Old 11-07-2012, 06:54 AM   #1451
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Originally Posted by dirk digler View Post
NS was pretty much perfect while patteeu and the doubters were wrong. Shocking that math wins out
Here's one for you, Pitt Gorilla.
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Old 11-07-2012, 06:55 AM   #1452
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Originally Posted by KC_Connection View Post
Math wins. Willful ignorance loses.
And another.
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Old 11-07-2012, 06:55 AM   #1453
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoover View Post
I believe its only appropriate to post on this thread tonight.

My read of the presidential race in Iowa and beyond was more than off. In Iowa Obama dominated in eastern Iowa, which isn't out of character, but its an area that Romney has/had been strong in for quite some time. The most shocking result was that Obama got 60% of the vote in Scott County. That's an ass kicking. He also increased his margin in Polk County which shocked me.

Not to make excuses, but the one thing that may have clouded by opinion of Iowa was the two western Iowa congressional races. Tom Latham defeated another sitting member of congress (Boswell) by 8 points. Over 20,000 people who voted for Obama in Polk County also pulled the lever for Latham.

Steve King, who someone on here said had nothing going on, defeated Christie Vilsack, the wife of a former Iowa Governor and current US Sec of Ag Tom Vilsack, got her ass kicked. King won by 8 points as well.

There is nothing for me to hang my hat on, but I did predict that Republicans would lose seats in the Iowa House. Nailed it actually, which sucks. Iowa Republicans had a chance to win the state senate but two incumbents going down put an end to that.

Anyway, I'm here to eat my crow. Nate Silver is a GOD.

Hoover
Yeah, it's crazy. The Vilsack/King race was supposed to be close and he crushed her by basically getting votes from people who voted for Obama.

Just plain crazy.
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Old 11-07-2012, 06:55 AM   #1454
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Originally Posted by FD View Post
Math isn't a lie???
And a surprising addition to the group.
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Old 11-07-2012, 06:58 AM   #1455
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Originally Posted by FD View Post
They should both probably take a long vacation. They have a lot to think about. Austinchief in particular.
Like what?
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