538

[whoman69]

The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by patteeu

Rassmussen's methodology is also non-partisan, scientific math, simple arithmetic. He got it wrong though.

I will take issue with the non-partisan part. NS in his models and has stated publicly on his website that Rasmussen in recent years has leaned alot more to the right than other models. That is why he weights his polls less.

[patteeu]

Originally Posted by Mr. Flopnuts

I can't imagine anyone from this website more upset over the results of last night more than you. I admire your ability to keep your cool through just about anything. That's real talk.

There was no candidate for me. So I'm just having some fun ****ing with some of the ones who drive me batshit. That's not you. I couldn't disagree with you anymore in some areas, and I know the feeling is likewise, but kudos for not getting worked up into a hypertension tizzy.

Thanks. I'm sure you and I would be more than capable of getting along in real life despite our political differences. In fact, I'm sure that's true of most around here.

[Direckshun]

I think you'd all find me to be a miserable cuss.

[patteeu]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

I will take issue with the non-partisan part. NS in his models and has stated publicly on his website that Rasmussen in recent years has leaned alot more to the right than other models. That is why he weights his polls less.

Nate Silver is an unapologetic liberal. He's been a confidante of the Obama campaign in both of the last two election cycles. That's far more evidence of personal partisanship than you will find on Rasmussen. That said, both Rasmussen and Silver have reputations to protect. Neither of them are going to go into election night with a model that they think is biased.

Here's what Silver has to say about Rasmussen bias.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by patteeu

Thanks. I'm sure you and I would be more than capable of getting along in real life despite our political differences. In fact, I'm sure that's true of most around here.

And it's not limited to politics either.

In a way, this is THE vent for most of us, whether it's politics, football, BBQ, or boobies.

[patteeu]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

I think you'd all find me to be a miserable cuss.

Please elaborate.

[patteeu]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

Over sampling Republicans and not calling cell phones in 2012 is not getting the right inputs into their math.

You don't say.

[Mr. Flopnuts]

Originally Posted by patteeu

Thanks. I'm sure you and I would be more than capable of getting along in real life despite our political differences. In fact, I'm sure that's true of most around here.

Oh, I have no doubt. There's lots of other things to talk about where we'd find tons of common ground. We just happen to meet up in the one arena that finds us at odds every day.

[patteeu]

Originally Posted by FD

Basic faith in things like the CLT.

Do you think Rasmussen and Gallup use math or is math just a 538 thing?

[|Zach|]

Originally Posted by Reaper16

This isn't just sour grapes. It's a damn vineyard.

[patteeu]

Originally Posted by Mr. Flopnuts

Oh, I have no doubt. There's lots of other things to talk about where we'd find tons of common ground. We just happen to meet up in the one arena that finds us at odds every day.

I doubt that we're at odds on politics as much as you seem to think. But where we are at odds, I'm sure I could bring you around if we spent enough time together.

[banyon]

Weren't there a lot of people claiming that democrats were being oversampled in the polling and that's why Romney was going to win?

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by patteeu

Nate Silver is an unapologetic liberal. He's been a confidante of the Obama campaign in both of the last two election cycles. That's far more evidence of personal partisanship than you will find on Rasmussen. That said, both Rasmussen and Silver have reputations to protect. Neither of them are going to go into election night with a model that they think is biased.

Here's what Silver has to say about Rasmussen bias.

He didn't have any relationship that I know of with the Obama campaign after 2008.

I and others like NS have been saying for a while that Ras has a noticeable party lean and are even biased. He even called them biased after the 2010 mid terms.

You can read that here. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...rmed-strongly/

Moreover, Rasmussen’s polls were quite biased, overestimating the standing of the Republican candidate by almost 4 points on average. In just 12 cases, Rasmussen’s polls overestimated the margin for the Democrat by 3 or more points. But it did so for the Republican candidate in 55 cases — that is, in more than half of the polls that it issued.
If one focused solely on the final poll issued by Rasmussen Reports or Pulse Opinion Research in each state — rather than including all polls within the three-week interval — it would not have made much difference. Their average error would be 5.7 points rather than 5.8, and their average bias 3.8 points rather than 3.9.

Nor did it make much difference whether the polls were branded as Rasmussen Reports surveys, or instead, were commissioned for Fox News by its subsidiary Pulse Opinion Research. (Both sets of surveys used an essentially identical methodology.) Polls branded as Rasmussen Reports missed by an average of 5.9 points and had a 3.9 point bias. The polls it commissioned on behalf of Fox News had a 5.1 point error, and a 3.6 point bias.

Rasmussen’s polls have come under heavy criticism throughout this election cycle, including from FiveThirtyEight. We have critiqued the firm for its cavalier attitude toward polling convention. Rasmussen, for instance, generally conducts all of its interviews during a single, 4-hour window; speaks with the first person it reaches on the phone rather than using a random selection process; does not call cellphones; does not call back respondents whom it misses initially; and uses a computer script rather than live interviewers to conduct its surveys. These are cost-saving measures which contribute to very low response rates and may lead to biased samples.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by patteeu

Thanks. I'm sure you and I would be more than capable of getting along in real life despite our political differences. In fact, I'm sure that's true of most around here.

On this we agree.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by banyon

Weren't there a lot of people claiming that democrats were being oversampled in the polling and that's why Romney was going to win?

yes. thats why the polls were all skewed.