538

[whoman69]

The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

[ReynardMuldrake]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

Oh and looks like hooker lover Dick Morris finally grows a brain. Honestly he should never be given any chance to spew his BS again.

Dick Morris wasn't simply wrong. He predicted Romney would get 325 electoral votes.

[whoman69]

Originally Posted by patteeu

Nate Silver is an unapologetic liberal. He's been a confidante of the Obama campaign in both of the last two election cycles. That's far more evidence of personal partisanship than you will find on Rasmussen. That said, both Rasmussen and Silver have reputations to protect. Neither of them are going to go into election night with a model that they think is biased.

Here's what Silver has to say about Rasmussen bias.

If anything 538 tries to err on the side of the right despite claims of liberal bias. The elections he missed in the senate were all won by Democrats. There is a lot more margin for error in the senate races as they have nowhere near the amount of polling the presidency has.

[patteeu]

Originally Posted by whoman69

If anything 538 tries to err on the side of the right despite claims of liberal bias. The elections he missed in the senate were all won by Democrats. There is a lot more margin for error in the senate races as they have nowhere near the amount of polling the presidency has.

No, 538 doesn't try to err on the side of the right. Good grief.

[KC_Connection]

Originally Posted by patteeu

And another.

All right...let's make it simpler then.

He was right. You were wrong. He wins. You lose.

Get over it.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

PPP #1 again (I think Ringleader said they wouldn't be even close ). LOL at Rasmussen...loser

http://politicalwire.com/archives/20...ate_polls.html

November 07, 2012

The Most Accurate Polls

A Fordham University study ranked 28 polling firms on how their pre-election national surveys compared to the results on Election Day. The ranking:

1. PPP (D)
1. Daily Kos/SEIU/PPP
3. YouGov
4. Ipsos/Reuters
5. Purple Strategies
6. NBC/WSJ
6. CBS/NYT
6. YouGov/Economist
9. UPI/CVOTER
10. IBD/TIPP
11. Angus-Reid
12. ABC/WP
13. Pew Research
13. Hartford Courant/UConn
15. CNN/ORC
15. Monmouth/SurveyUSA
15. Politico/GWU/Battleground
15. FOX News
15. Washington Times/JZ Analytics
15. Newsmax/JZ Analytics
15. American Research Group
15. Gravis Marketing
23. Democracy Corps (D)
24. Rasmussen
24. Gallup
26. NPR
27. National Journal
28. AP/GfK

Wow...I'm pretty surprised that YouGov ended up doing so well. I was pretty skeptical that they'd be THAT accurate. On the other hand, as someone in the industry, I'm glad to see a panel like that be successful. Makes me a little less nervous about using them.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by DaFace

Wow...I'm pretty surprised that YouGov ended up doing so well. I was pretty skeptical that they'd be THAT accurate.

I was as well.

[Pitt Gorilla]

I don't think any reasonable person took Rasmussen seriously.

[KC_Connection]

Originally Posted by Pitt Gorilla

I don't think any reasonable person took Rasmussen seriously.

We saw both confirmation bias and willful ignorance at work with those who trusted Rasmussen.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by Pitt Gorilla

I don't think any reasonable person took Rasmussen seriously.

I guess that depends on what your definition of reasonable is or who you think is reasonable

[whoman69]

Originally Posted by patteeu

No, 538 doesn't try to err on the side of the right. Good grief.

Perhaps poorly worded. You are touchy. I will restate. 538 has erred to the right when they are wrong.

[-King-]

Originally Posted by ReynardMuldrake

Dick Morris wasn't simply wrong. He predicted Romney would get 325 electoral votes.

I’ve got egg on my face. I predicted a Romney landslide and, instead, we ended up with an Obama squeaker.

http://www.dickmorris.com/why-i-was-wrong/

How is 303-206 a squeaker?

[whoman69]

Originally Posted by patteeu

Rassmussen's methodology is also non-partisan, scientific math, simple arithmetic. He got it wrong though.

Which 538 took into account.

[whoman69]

Originally Posted by -King-

http://www.dickmorris.com/why-i-was-wrong/

How is 303-206 a squeaker?

Its probably going to be 332-206. Another reason for the electoral college is to provide a clear mandate when the popular vote is close. The difference of 2% and 2.5 million voters from just under 120 million voters may not seem like a huge mandate. 332 EC is more of one.

[carlos3652]

Originally Posted by -King-

http://www.dickmorris.com/why-i-was-wrong/

How is 303-206 a squeaker?

I think to be fair

332-206 becomes a squeaker when:

69 of those Electoral votes are decided by a 350k difference (out of 20.3 Million votes) 1.7% (Fl, Co, Oh, Va)
47 of those Electoral votes are decided by a 150k difference (out of 13.4 Million votes) 1.1% (Fl, Oh)

[patteeu]

Originally Posted by KC_Connection

All right...let's make it simpler then.

He was right. You were wrong. He wins. You lose.

Get over it.

That's simpler and more accurate. Congrats. I already busted you though.