Elections 538 - Page 102

whoman69 · 09:58 AM

The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

**BigRedChief** · 11-07-2012, 06:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KC native

Oh yea I almost forgot about ringleader's bullshit simplistic model.

Didnt he say 330 for Romney in his model?

whoman69 · 11-07-2012, 06:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

Didnt he say 330 for Romney in his model?

Maybe he can keep his model in Al Gore's lockbox.

alnorth · 11-07-2012, 07:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by patteeu

No, 538 doesn't try to err on the side of the right. Good grief.

not intentionally. (If that was your point, you are correct) But, there is a strong argument that 538 was too modest and gave Romney too much of a chance. Virtually every other model out there declared Romney dead.

Infidel Goat · 11-07-2012, 07:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by carlos3652

I think to be fair

332-206 becomes a squeaker when:

69 of those Electoral votes are decided by a 350k difference (out of 20.3 Million votes) 1.7% (Fl, Co, Oh, Va)
47 of those Electoral votes are decided by a 150k difference (out of 13.4 Million votes) 1.1% (Fl, Oh)

As long as you don't forget that less than another 100k difference would have sent 15 more votes (NC) to the Obama camp.

NC was closer to turning than OH.

WoodDraw · 11-07-2012, 08:23 PM

What happened to our Colorado professor who had "predicted" every single race since the 80s? He better update his method to keep the record alive...

alnorth · 11-07-2012, 09:01 PM

Nate Silver's going to be on the Daily Show shortly. This ought to be good.

cosmo20002 · 11-07-2012, 09:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alnorth

Nate Silver's going to be on the Daily Show shortly. This ought to be good.

Let's guess what he might say...something along the lines of, "

."

**BigRedChief** · 11-07-2012, 09:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cosmo20002

Let's guess what he might say...something along the lines of, "

."

He should be humble. Everyone is taking turns proclaiming him the King of poll whispers.

Jon, its not me. It's arithmetic.

cosmo20002 · 11-07-2012, 09:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

He should be humble. Everyone is taking turns proclaiming him the King of poll whispers.

Jon, its not me. It's arithmetic.

He probably will be. But I'm sure he'll be thinking, "

."

alnorth · 11-07-2012, 11:46 PM

As expected, Nate Silver was acceptably modest. It even got to the point where when John Stewart started his liberal jackoff of suggesting the republicans were toast for a generation, Nate recoiled and said something like "well no, you look at what gay marriage and abortion may have cost them, and how close this election is, the message of reducing debt is very appealing to many voters. If the republicans can just get their act together, they can win". He doesn't sound like a wild-eyed lefty to me. More like a libertarian. Like almost every other intelligent voter who is repulsed by the tea party but not excited about voting for democrats.

HMc · 11-08-2012, 12:20 AM

has anyone told him there were several experts on chiefsplanet that were absolutely sure that he didn't know what he was doing?

KC native · 11-08-2012, 10:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

Didnt he say 330 for Romney in his model?

Not sure. He will avoid this thread though as will austinchief.

MATHEMATICAL MASTURBATION

carlos3652 · 11-08-2012, 10:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Infidel Goat

As long as you don't forget that less than another 100k difference would have sent 15 more votes (NC) to the Obama camp.

NC was closer to turning than OH.

oh I agree completely - just saying that just because of the electoral vote margin being crazy ridiculous, doesn't mean it cant be considered close...

Dave Lane · 11-08-2012, 10:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by -King-

http://www.dickmorris.com/why-i-was-wrong/

How is 303-206 a squeaker?

You need to add 29 to that figure it looks like Obama got Florida

So 332 to 206

bsp4444 · 11-08-2012, 01:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dave Lane

You need to add 29 to that figure it looks like Obama got Florida

So 332 to 206

Haven't seen this, yet.

08-07-2012, 07:21 PM
whoman69 The Master Join Date: Sep 2002 Location: Marion, IA Casino cash: $52342	538 The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama. The closest state contests are: Florida 50.3% Obama North Carolina 74.4% Romney Virginia 79.4% Obama Colorado 79.7% Obama Iowa 84.3% Obama New Hampshire 84.6% Obama The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability: Michigan Pennsylvania Wisconsin Nevada Ohio Obama has 303 EC at least 79% Obama has 332 EC at least 50% Last edited by whoman69; 11-06-2012 at 09:58 AM.. Reason: latest update
Posts: 22,059

11-07-2012, 08:23 PM	#1520
WoodDraw Veteran Join Date: Mar 2004 Casino cash: $33648	What happened to our Colorado professor who had "predicted" every single race since the 80s? He better update his method to keep the record alive...
Posts: 3,730

11-07-2012, 09:01 PM	#1521
alnorth MVP Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Iowania Casino cash: $12370299	Nate Silver's going to be on the Daily Show shortly. This ought to be good. __________________ <WarMoose> Think about how stupid the average person is. Now realize that half of them are dumber than that. <Chunda> Why half?
Posts: 21,954

11-07-2012, 11:46 PM	#1525
alnorth MVP Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Iowania Casino cash: $12370299	As expected, Nate Silver was acceptably modest. It even got to the point where when John Stewart started his liberal jackoff of suggesting the republicans were toast for a generation, Nate recoiled and said something like "well no, you look at what gay marriage and abortion may have cost them, and how close this election is, the message of reducing debt is very appealing to many voters. If the republicans can just get their act together, they can win". He doesn't sound like a wild-eyed lefty to me. More like a libertarian. Like almost every other intelligent voter who is repulsed by the tea party but not excited about voting for democrats. __________________ <WarMoose> Think about how stupid the average person is. Now realize that half of them are dumber than that. <Chunda> Why half?
Posts: 21,954

11-08-2012, 12:20 AM	#1526
HMc from the very deep south. Join Date: Dec 2005 Location: Sydney, Australia. Casino cash: $15167	has anyone told him there were several experts on chiefsplanet that were absolutely sure that he didn't know what he was doing?
Posts: 2,698

Thread Tools
Show Printable Version Email this Page
Display Modes
Linear Mode Switch to Hybrid Mode Switch to Threaded Mode