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Old 08-07-2012, 08:21 PM  
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
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538

The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

Last edited by whoman69; 11-06-2012 at 10:58 AM.. Reason: latest update
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Old 11-07-2012, 07:08 PM   #1516
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Oh yea I almost forgot about ringleader's bullshit simplistic model.
Didnt he say 330 for Romney in his model?
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Old 11-07-2012, 07:10 PM   #1517
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
Didnt he say 330 for Romney in his model?
Maybe he can keep his model in Al Gore's lockbox.
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Old 11-07-2012, 08:05 PM   #1518
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Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
No, 538 doesn't try to err on the side of the right. Good grief.
not intentionally. (If that was your point, you are correct) But, there is a strong argument that 538 was too modest and gave Romney too much of a chance. Virtually every other model out there declared Romney dead.
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Old 11-07-2012, 08:54 PM   #1519
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Originally Posted by carlos3652 View Post
I think to be fair

332-206 becomes a squeaker when:

69 of those Electoral votes are decided by a 350k difference (out of 20.3 Million votes) 1.7% (Fl, Co, Oh, Va)
47 of those Electoral votes are decided by a 150k difference (out of 13.4 Million votes) 1.1% (Fl, Oh)
As long as you don't forget that less than another 100k difference would have sent 15 more votes (NC) to the Obama camp.

NC was closer to turning than OH.
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Old 11-07-2012, 09:23 PM   #1520
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What happened to our Colorado professor who had "predicted" every single race since the 80s? He better update his method to keep the record alive...
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Old 11-07-2012, 10:01 PM   #1521
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Nate Silver's going to be on the Daily Show shortly. This ought to be good.
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Old 11-07-2012, 10:03 PM   #1522
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alnorth View Post
Nate Silver's going to be on the Daily Show shortly. This ought to be good.
Let's guess what he might say...something along the lines of, "."
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Old 11-07-2012, 10:18 PM   #1523
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Originally Posted by cosmo20002 View Post
Let's guess what he might say...something along the lines of, "."
He should be humble. Everyone is taking turns proclaiming him the King of poll whispers.

Jon, its not me. It's arithmetic.
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Old 11-07-2012, 10:21 PM   #1524
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
He should be humble. Everyone is taking turns proclaiming him the King of poll whispers.

Jon, its not me. It's arithmetic.
He probably will be. But I'm sure he'll be thinking, "."
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Old 11-08-2012, 12:46 AM   #1525
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As expected, Nate Silver was acceptably modest. It even got to the point where when John Stewart started his liberal jackoff of suggesting the republicans were toast for a generation, Nate recoiled and said something like "well no, you look at what gay marriage and abortion may have cost them, and how close this election is, the message of reducing debt is very appealing to many voters. If the republicans can just get their act together, they can win". He doesn't sound like a wild-eyed lefty to me. More like a libertarian. Like almost every other intelligent voter who is repulsed by the tea party but not excited about voting for democrats.
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Old 11-08-2012, 01:20 AM   #1526
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has anyone told him there were several experts on chiefsplanet that were absolutely sure that he didn't know what he was doing?
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Old 11-08-2012, 11:07 AM   #1527
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
Didnt he say 330 for Romney in his model?
Not sure. He will avoid this thread though as will austinchief.

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Old 11-08-2012, 11:34 AM   #1528
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Originally Posted by Infidel Goat View Post
As long as you don't forget that less than another 100k difference would have sent 15 more votes (NC) to the Obama camp.

NC was closer to turning than OH.
oh I agree completely - just saying that just because of the electoral vote margin being crazy ridiculous, doesn't mean it cant be considered close...
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Old 11-08-2012, 11:48 AM   #1529
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Originally Posted by -King- View Post
You need to add 29 to that figure it looks like Obama got Florida

So 332 to 206
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Old 11-08-2012, 02:02 PM   #1530
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You need to add 29 to that figure it looks like Obama got Florida

So 332 to 206
Haven't seen this, yet.
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