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Old 08-07-2012, 07:21 PM  
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
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538

The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

Last edited by whoman69; 11-06-2012 at 09:58 AM.. Reason: latest update
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Old 11-08-2012, 03:07 PM   #1531
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bsp4444 View Post
Haven't seen this, yet.
Not official, but by counts up to this point Obama is up by nearly 50K votes.
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Originally posted by Logical
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Old 11-08-2012, 06:05 PM   #1532
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pfffffft...

what does nate silver know about polling?

the election was obviously skewed towards democrats...
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Old 11-08-2012, 07:58 PM   #1533
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Josh Marshall was right. Good call TPM

Quote:
And yet, at least according to the CBS article, this completely eluded the folks running the Romney campaign …
Independents. State polls showed Romney winning big among independents. Historically, any candidate polling that well among independents wins. But as it turned out, many of those independents were former Republicans who now self-identify as independents. The state polls weren’t oversampling Democrats and undersampling Republicans - there just weren’t as many Republicans this time because they were calling themselves independents.
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Old 11-08-2012, 08:42 PM   #1534
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Quote:
Originally Posted by carlos3652 View Post
oh I agree completely - just saying that just because of the electoral vote margin being crazy ridiculous, doesn't mean it cant be considered close...
Really? What would have constituted a "Romney landslide"?
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Old 11-09-2012, 09:26 AM   #1535
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Quote:
Originally Posted by carlos3652 View Post
oh I agree completely - just saying that just because of the electoral vote margin being crazy ridiculous, doesn't mean it cant be considered close...
That' one of the reasons for the electoral college, to give a clear mandate of a win even in a close election. If you want to call a 3 million vote margin or a difference of 126 EC go ahead and keep fooling yourself. Its what Republicans were really good at this election cycle. Go back to Fox News, Blaze or Drudge where ever you get the news you want to hear and keep drinking the kool aid.
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Quote:
Originally posted by Logical
When the boobs are a bouncin, the Chiefs will be trouncin
What the Raiders fan has said is true, our customs are different. What Al Davis has said is unimportant, and we do not hear his words.
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Old 11-09-2012, 11:47 AM   #1536
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Quote:
Originally Posted by whoman69 View Post
That' one of the reasons for the electoral college, to give a clear mandate of a win even in a close election. If you want to call a 3 million vote margin or a difference of 126 EC go ahead and keep fooling yourself. Its what Republicans were really good at this election cycle. Go back to Fox News, Blaze or Drudge where ever you get the news you want to hear and keep drinking the kool aid.
Are you going to tell me Bush/Kerry was not close? There was more of a popular vote difference there than there was in this election.

Obama won by almost 10 million votes in 2008 - are you telling me this election was just as a landslide as that one?

I'm not a republican so i wouldn't know. And I get my info from CNN.
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Old 11-09-2012, 11:50 AM   #1537
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dirk digler View Post
Josh Marshall was right. Good call TPM
The final tally I saw on that was Mitt got 49% of Independents and Obama got 45%.
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Old 11-09-2012, 12:14 PM   #1538
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Why did idiots continue to claim that Dems were oversampled?

Edit: Never mind. Just saw the Marshall quote. It does, however, seem odd that the polls got this phenomenon correct and people still refused to believe it existed.
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Old 11-09-2012, 12:15 PM   #1539
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitt Gorilla View Post
Why did idiots continue to claim that Dems were oversampled?
Well, because they were idiots?

Mathmatical masturbation, according to some. Heh.
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Old 11-09-2012, 02:01 PM   #1540
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Lane View Post
You need to add 29 to that figure it looks like Obama got Florida

So 332 to 206
Romney is not conceding Florida yet.
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Old 11-09-2012, 02:10 PM   #1541
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
Romney is not conceding Florida yet.
I saw that his campaign was. He doesn't really need to concede individual states. He already conceded the election.

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2012/...8891352384824/
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Quote:
Originally posted by Logical
When the boobs are a bouncin, the Chiefs will be trouncin
What the Raiders fan has said is true, our customs are different. What Al Davis has said is unimportant, and we do not hear his words.
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Old 11-09-2012, 02:11 PM   #1542
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Quote:
Originally Posted by carlos3652 View Post
Are you going to tell me Bush/Kerry was not close? There was more of a popular vote difference there than there was in this election.

Obama won by almost 10 million votes in 2008 - are you telling me this election was just as a landslide as that one?

I'm not a republican so i wouldn't know. And I get my info from CNN.
Certainly not a landslide, but even Boehner recognizes he got a mandate.
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Quote:
Originally posted by Logical
When the boobs are a bouncin, the Chiefs will be trouncin
What the Raiders fan has said is true, our customs are different. What Al Davis has said is unimportant, and we do not hear his words.
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Old 11-09-2012, 02:35 PM   #1543
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Quote:
Originally Posted by whoman69 View Post
Certainly not a landslide, but even Boehner recognizes he got a mandate.
Oh - i was just making a comment on how it might be considered close... how its fair to say that it wasn't that far fetched to say that...
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Old 11-09-2012, 02:50 PM   #1544
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Quote:
Originally Posted by whoman69 View Post
I saw that his campaign was. He doesn't really need to concede individual states. He already conceded the election.

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2012/...8891352384824/
It aint official. Romeny hasnt conceded Florida.
http://www.wtsp.com/news/article/281...y-wont-concede
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Old 11-09-2012, 03:32 PM   #1545
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
It aint official. Romeny hasnt conceded Florida.
http://www.wtsp.com/news/article/281...y-wont-concede
So its like Romney's campaign, flipping back and forth?
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Quote:
Originally posted by Logical
When the boobs are a bouncin, the Chiefs will be trouncin
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