Home Mail MemberMap Chat (0) Wallpapers
Go Back   ChiefsPlanet > The Ed & Dave Lounge > D.C.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 08-07-2012, 07:21 PM  
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
The Master
 
whoman69's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Marion, IA
Casino cash: $5000
538

The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

Last edited by whoman69; 11-06-2012 at 09:58 AM.. Reason: latest update
Posts: 23,081
whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-08-2012, 03:07 PM   #1531
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
The Master
 
whoman69's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Marion, IA
Casino cash: $5000
Quote:
Originally Posted by bsp4444 View Post
Haven't seen this, yet.
Not official, but by counts up to this point Obama is up by nearly 50K votes.
__________________
-Watching Eddie Podolak
Quote:
Originally posted by Logical
When the boobs are a bouncin, the Chiefs will be trouncin
What the Raiders fan has said is true, our customs are different. What Al Davis has said is unimportant, and we do not hear his words.
Posts: 23,081
whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-08-2012, 06:05 PM   #1532
go bowe go bowe is offline
bye bye bo...
 
go bowe's Avatar
 

Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: independence
Casino cash: $5481
pfffffft...

what does nate silver know about polling?

the election was obviously skewed towards democrats...
Posts: 30,014
go bowe 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.go bowe 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.go bowe 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.go bowe 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.go bowe 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.go bowe 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.go bowe 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.go bowe 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.go bowe 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.go bowe 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.go bowe 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-08-2012, 07:58 PM   #1533
dirk digler dirk digler is offline
Please squeeze
 
dirk digler's Avatar
 

Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Clinton, MO
Casino cash: $6420
Josh Marshall was right. Good call TPM

Quote:
And yet, at least according to the CBS article, this completely eluded the folks running the Romney campaign …
Independents. State polls showed Romney winning big among independents. Historically, any candidate polling that well among independents wins. But as it turned out, many of those independents were former Republicans who now self-identify as independents. The state polls weren’t oversampling Democrats and undersampling Republicans - there just weren’t as many Republicans this time because they were calling themselves independents.
Posts: 48,502
dirk digler 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.dirk digler 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.dirk digler 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.dirk digler 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.dirk digler 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.dirk digler 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.dirk digler 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.dirk digler 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.dirk digler 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.dirk digler 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.dirk digler 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-08-2012, 08:42 PM   #1534
aturnis aturnis is offline
MVP
 
aturnis's Avatar
 

Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Iowa
Casino cash: $6187
Quote:
Originally Posted by carlos3652 View Post
oh I agree completely - just saying that just because of the electoral vote margin being crazy ridiculous, doesn't mean it cant be considered close...
Really? What would have constituted a "Romney landslide"?
Posts: 10,695
aturnis Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.aturnis Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.aturnis Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.aturnis Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.aturnis Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.aturnis Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.aturnis Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.aturnis Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.aturnis Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.aturnis Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.aturnis Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-09-2012, 09:26 AM   #1535
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
The Master
 
whoman69's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Marion, IA
Casino cash: $5000
Quote:
Originally Posted by carlos3652 View Post
oh I agree completely - just saying that just because of the electoral vote margin being crazy ridiculous, doesn't mean it cant be considered close...
That' one of the reasons for the electoral college, to give a clear mandate of a win even in a close election. If you want to call a 3 million vote margin or a difference of 126 EC go ahead and keep fooling yourself. Its what Republicans were really good at this election cycle. Go back to Fox News, Blaze or Drudge where ever you get the news you want to hear and keep drinking the kool aid.
__________________
-Watching Eddie Podolak
Quote:
Originally posted by Logical
When the boobs are a bouncin, the Chiefs will be trouncin
What the Raiders fan has said is true, our customs are different. What Al Davis has said is unimportant, and we do not hear his words.
Posts: 23,081
whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-09-2012, 11:47 AM   #1536
carlos3652 carlos3652 is offline
El Diablo
 

Join Date: Dec 2004
Casino cash: $5364
Quote:
Originally Posted by whoman69 View Post
That' one of the reasons for the electoral college, to give a clear mandate of a win even in a close election. If you want to call a 3 million vote margin or a difference of 126 EC go ahead and keep fooling yourself. Its what Republicans were really good at this election cycle. Go back to Fox News, Blaze or Drudge where ever you get the news you want to hear and keep drinking the kool aid.
Are you going to tell me Bush/Kerry was not close? There was more of a popular vote difference there than there was in this election.

Obama won by almost 10 million votes in 2008 - are you telling me this election was just as a landslide as that one?

I'm not a republican so i wouldn't know. And I get my info from CNN.
Posts: 4,233
carlos3652 must have mowed badgirl's lawn.carlos3652 must have mowed badgirl's lawn.carlos3652 must have mowed badgirl's lawn.carlos3652 must have mowed badgirl's lawn.carlos3652 must have mowed badgirl's lawn.carlos3652 must have mowed badgirl's lawn.carlos3652 must have mowed badgirl's lawn.carlos3652 must have mowed badgirl's lawn.carlos3652 must have mowed badgirl's lawn.carlos3652 must have mowed badgirl's lawn.carlos3652 must have mowed badgirl's lawn.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-09-2012, 11:50 AM   #1537
BucEyedPea BucEyedPea is offline
BucPatriot
 
BucEyedPea's Avatar
 

Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: None of your business
Casino cash: $8625
Quote:
Originally Posted by dirk digler View Post
Josh Marshall was right. Good call TPM
The final tally I saw on that was Mitt got 49% of Independents and Obama got 45%.
__________________
Posts: 57,481
BucEyedPea is obviously part of the inner Circle.BucEyedPea is obviously part of the inner Circle.BucEyedPea is obviously part of the inner Circle.BucEyedPea is obviously part of the inner Circle.BucEyedPea is obviously part of the inner Circle.BucEyedPea is obviously part of the inner Circle.BucEyedPea is obviously part of the inner Circle.BucEyedPea is obviously part of the inner Circle.BucEyedPea is obviously part of the inner Circle.BucEyedPea is obviously part of the inner Circle.BucEyedPea is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-09-2012, 12:14 PM   #1538
Pitt Gorilla Pitt Gorilla is offline
Banned!
 
Pitt Gorilla's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2000
Location: NOT Columbia, MO 65201
Casino cash: $6673
Why did idiots continue to claim that Dems were oversampled?

Edit: Never mind. Just saw the Marshall quote. It does, however, seem odd that the polls got this phenomenon correct and people still refused to believe it existed.
__________________

That rabbit is crazy; I'm Brian Waters!

Kotter: "You are lucky I'm truly not the vindictive or psycho type...I'd be careful from now on, and I'd just back the hell off if I were you....otherwise, the Mizzou "extension office" life might get exciting"

Kotter: "You're just gay. G-A-Y. Gay."
Posts: 21,323
Pitt Gorilla is too fat/Omaha.Pitt Gorilla is too fat/Omaha.Pitt Gorilla is too fat/Omaha.Pitt Gorilla is too fat/Omaha.Pitt Gorilla is too fat/Omaha.Pitt Gorilla is too fat/Omaha.Pitt Gorilla is too fat/Omaha.Pitt Gorilla is too fat/Omaha.Pitt Gorilla is too fat/Omaha.Pitt Gorilla is too fat/Omaha.Pitt Gorilla is too fat/Omaha.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-09-2012, 12:15 PM   #1539
Mr. Kotter Mr. Kotter is offline
Lookin' for the answers...
 
Mr. Kotter's Avatar
 

Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Somewhere else
Casino cash: $774
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitt Gorilla View Post
Why did idiots continue to claim that Dems were oversampled?
Well, because they were idiots?

Mathmatical masturbation, according to some. Heh.
__________________
Alex Smith will be better than Geno or Cassel, Alex Smith will be better than Geno or Cassel, Alex Smith will be better than Geno or Cassel, Alex Smith will be better than Geno or Cassel...
Posts: 40,004
Mr. Kotter has disabled reputation
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-09-2012, 02:01 PM   #1540
BigRedChief BigRedChief is offline
Brainwashed
 
BigRedChief's Avatar
 

Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Swims with fishes
Casino cash: $7550
VARSITY
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Lane View Post
You need to add 29 to that figure it looks like Obama got Florida

So 332 to 206
Romney is not conceding Florida yet.
__________________
Attempted troll/humor while discussing potential child abuse
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bufkin View Post
If it's effective, who are you, me, or anybody else to call it abuse? I worked with a guy back in Moberly who would shove a finger up his son's ass each time he had anything worse than a C on his report card. If he came home with 2 D's and an F, that's 3 fingers (and this was a big dude). Does that sound hideous and disgusting? Absolutely. Did the kid ever get anything worse than a C after this rule was implemented? Not a chance.

I'm not saying it's morally right or wrong, but does it make the child because of it? Think about that for a second.
Posts: 43,153
BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-09-2012, 02:10 PM   #1541
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
The Master
 
whoman69's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Marion, IA
Casino cash: $5000
Quote:
Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
Romney is not conceding Florida yet.
I saw that his campaign was. He doesn't really need to concede individual states. He already conceded the election.

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2012/...8891352384824/
__________________
-Watching Eddie Podolak
Quote:
Originally posted by Logical
When the boobs are a bouncin, the Chiefs will be trouncin
What the Raiders fan has said is true, our customs are different. What Al Davis has said is unimportant, and we do not hear his words.
Posts: 23,081
whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-09-2012, 02:11 PM   #1542
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
The Master
 
whoman69's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Marion, IA
Casino cash: $5000
Quote:
Originally Posted by carlos3652 View Post
Are you going to tell me Bush/Kerry was not close? There was more of a popular vote difference there than there was in this election.

Obama won by almost 10 million votes in 2008 - are you telling me this election was just as a landslide as that one?

I'm not a republican so i wouldn't know. And I get my info from CNN.
Certainly not a landslide, but even Boehner recognizes he got a mandate.
__________________
-Watching Eddie Podolak
Quote:
Originally posted by Logical
When the boobs are a bouncin, the Chiefs will be trouncin
What the Raiders fan has said is true, our customs are different. What Al Davis has said is unimportant, and we do not hear his words.
Posts: 23,081
whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-09-2012, 02:35 PM   #1543
carlos3652 carlos3652 is offline
El Diablo
 

Join Date: Dec 2004
Casino cash: $5364
Quote:
Originally Posted by whoman69 View Post
Certainly not a landslide, but even Boehner recognizes he got a mandate.
Oh - i was just making a comment on how it might be considered close... how its fair to say that it wasn't that far fetched to say that...
Posts: 4,233
carlos3652 must have mowed badgirl's lawn.carlos3652 must have mowed badgirl's lawn.carlos3652 must have mowed badgirl's lawn.carlos3652 must have mowed badgirl's lawn.carlos3652 must have mowed badgirl's lawn.carlos3652 must have mowed badgirl's lawn.carlos3652 must have mowed badgirl's lawn.carlos3652 must have mowed badgirl's lawn.carlos3652 must have mowed badgirl's lawn.carlos3652 must have mowed badgirl's lawn.carlos3652 must have mowed badgirl's lawn.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-09-2012, 02:50 PM   #1544
BigRedChief BigRedChief is offline
Brainwashed
 
BigRedChief's Avatar
 

Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Swims with fishes
Casino cash: $7550
VARSITY
Quote:
Originally Posted by whoman69 View Post
I saw that his campaign was. He doesn't really need to concede individual states. He already conceded the election.

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2012/...8891352384824/
It aint official. Romeny hasnt conceded Florida.
http://www.wtsp.com/news/article/281...y-wont-concede
__________________
Attempted troll/humor while discussing potential child abuse
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bufkin View Post
If it's effective, who are you, me, or anybody else to call it abuse? I worked with a guy back in Moberly who would shove a finger up his son's ass each time he had anything worse than a C on his report card. If he came home with 2 D's and an F, that's 3 fingers (and this was a big dude). Does that sound hideous and disgusting? Absolutely. Did the kid ever get anything worse than a C after this rule was implemented? Not a chance.

I'm not saying it's morally right or wrong, but does it make the child because of it? Think about that for a second.
Posts: 43,153
BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-09-2012, 03:32 PM   #1545
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
The Master
 
whoman69's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Marion, IA
Casino cash: $5000
Quote:
Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
It aint official. Romeny hasnt conceded Florida.
http://www.wtsp.com/news/article/281...y-wont-concede
So its like Romney's campaign, flipping back and forth?
__________________
-Watching Eddie Podolak
Quote:
Originally posted by Logical
When the boobs are a bouncin, the Chiefs will be trouncin
What the Raiders fan has said is true, our customs are different. What Al Davis has said is unimportant, and we do not hear his words.
Posts: 23,081
whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.
  Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On

Forum Jump




All times are GMT -6. The time now is 03:04 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.0
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.