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Old 08-07-2012, 07:21 PM  
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
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538

The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

Last edited by whoman69; 11-06-2012 at 09:58 AM.. Reason: latest update
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Old 11-09-2012, 03:35 PM   #1546
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I just got home from the supermarket and the papers said no winner until Saturday.
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Old 11-09-2012, 03:37 PM   #1547
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Originally Posted by whoman69 View Post
Certainly not a landslide, but even Boehner recognizes he got a mandate.
What do you expect from someone who was making back door deals with him?
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Old 11-09-2012, 03:38 PM   #1548
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Originally Posted by Pitt Gorilla View Post
Why did idiots continue to claim that Dems were oversampled?

Edit: Never mind. Just saw the Marshall quote. It does, however, seem odd that the polls got this phenomenon correct and people still refused to believe it existed.
It's also odd that Rasmussen ran large sample size polls on party identification and the results are dramatically different than the party identification results in the non-Rasmussen presidential preference polls and the actual presidential ballots. That seems to have been one of the things that led people to believe the state polls were having trouble getting a valid sample.
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Old 11-10-2012, 06:33 AM   #1549
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Quote:
Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
It's also odd that Rasmussen ran large sample size polls on party identification and the results are dramatically different than the party identification results in the non-Rasmussen presidential preference polls and the actual presidential ballots. That seems to have been one of the things that led people to believe the state polls were having trouble getting a valid sample.
The biggest thing that led people believe the state polls were having trouble getting a valid sample is self deception. Are you saying that Republicans purposefully lied to only Rasmussen to make Romney look better with independents? Rasmussen was wrong because of cheap outmoded methods and their insistence at using party identification to weight their polls when in reality people change self identification all the time.
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Old 11-10-2012, 06:43 AM   #1550
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Quote:
Originally Posted by whoman69 View Post
Rasmussen was wrong because of cheap outmoded methods and their insistence at using party identification to weight their polls when in reality people change self identification all the time.
And they don't call cell phones, correct?

This is another lesson that Republicans need to learn. All the polls, as in 90% of them saying basically the same thing are not skewed, bias just because the numbers are not the ones that you want to see for your candidate.
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Old 11-10-2012, 07:42 AM   #1551
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Originally Posted by whoman69 View Post
The biggest thing that led people believe the state polls were having trouble getting a valid sample is self deception. Are you saying that Republicans purposefully lied to only Rasmussen to make Romney look better with independents? Rasmussen was wrong because of cheap outmoded methods and their insistence at using party identification to weight their polls when in reality people change self identification all the time.
I see that you didn't understand the point I made.
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Old 11-10-2012, 07:44 AM   #1552
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Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
And they don't call cell phones, correct?

This is another lesson that Republicans need to learn. All the polls, as in 90% of them saying basically the same thing are not skewed, bias just because the numbers are not the ones that you want to see for your candidate.
The same kind of thing happened in 2004 except in reverse so I wouldn't get too overwhelmed with pride if I were you.
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Old 11-10-2012, 12:55 PM   #1553
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BTW Florida officially called for Obama. Allen West trying to sue for a recount though legally not mandated. Lost the first round of that. Race still hasn't been called but the idiot is 2000 votes down.
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Old 11-10-2012, 01:42 PM   #1554
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Originally Posted by whoman69 View Post
BTW Florida officially called for Obama. Allen West trying to sue for a recount though legally not mandated. Lost the first round of that. Race still hasn't been called but the idiot is 2000 votes down.
West trying to waste taxpayer money
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Old 11-10-2012, 02:47 PM   #1555
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West is scum.
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Old 11-10-2012, 04:08 PM   #1556
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Nate Silver@fivethirtyeight Not safe to assume that the "internal polls" leaked to the press = what a campaign really thinks.
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Originally Posted by MTG#10 View Post
I believe Hitler hated Jews and had a lot of them killed. I dont believe it was anywhere close to 6 million though. I'm not an anti-semite; I just think that number has been severely inflated and there is a lot of evidence that supports this belief.
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Old 11-11-2012, 07:53 AM   #1557
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Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
Nate Silver@fivethirtyeight Not safe to assume that the "internal polls" leaked to the press = what a campaign really thinks.
IMO internal polls are the information they give to the candidate so that he will continue to campaign instead of giving up.
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Quote:
Originally posted by Logical
When the boobs are a bouncin, the Chiefs will be trouncin
What the Raiders fan has said is true, our customs are different. What Al Davis has said is unimportant, and we do not hear his words.
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Old 11-11-2012, 04:22 PM   #1558
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Quote:
Originally Posted by whoman69 View Post
IMO internal polls are the information they give to the candidate so that he will continue to campaign instead of giving up.
and the media took the "internal polls" as some kind of gospel when it was leaked.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MTG#10 View Post
I believe Hitler hated Jews and had a lot of them killed. I dont believe it was anywhere close to 6 million though. I'm not an anti-semite; I just think that number has been severely inflated and there is a lot of evidence that supports this belief.
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Old 11-13-2012, 02:34 PM   #1559
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Nothing like a good ass kicking to get the truth to come out.

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-- Dick Morris, in an interview on Fox News, explaining why he predicted a landslide for Mitt Romney in the presidential election.
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Old 11-13-2012, 04:25 PM   #1560
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dirk digler View Post
Nothing like a good ass kicking to get the truth to come out.
Dick Morris denial.

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Quote:
Originally posted by Logical
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