Home Mail MemberMap Chat (0) Wallpapers
Go Back   ChiefsPlanet > The Lounge > D.C.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 08-07-2012, 07:21 PM  
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
The Master
 
whoman69's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Marion, IA
Casino cash: $61445
538

The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

Last edited by whoman69; 11-06-2012 at 09:58 AM.. Reason: latest update
Posts: 23,082
whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-09-2012, 03:35 PM   #1546
BucEyedPea BucEyedPea is offline
Frazod Loves Hammy
 
BucEyedPea's Avatar
 

Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: None of your business
Casino cash: $89586
I just got home from the supermarket and the papers said no winner until Saturday.
__________________
"“Perhaps one of the most important accomplishments of my administration has been minding my own business.”" — Calvin Coolidge
Posts: 53,202
BucEyedPea is obviously part of the inner Circle.BucEyedPea is obviously part of the inner Circle.BucEyedPea is obviously part of the inner Circle.BucEyedPea is obviously part of the inner Circle.BucEyedPea is obviously part of the inner Circle.BucEyedPea is obviously part of the inner Circle.BucEyedPea is obviously part of the inner Circle.BucEyedPea is obviously part of the inner Circle.BucEyedPea is obviously part of the inner Circle.BucEyedPea is obviously part of the inner Circle.BucEyedPea is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-09-2012, 03:37 PM   #1547
BucEyedPea BucEyedPea is offline
Frazod Loves Hammy
 
BucEyedPea's Avatar
 

Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: None of your business
Casino cash: $89586
Quote:
Originally Posted by whoman69 View Post
Certainly not a landslide, but even Boehner recognizes he got a mandate.
What do you expect from someone who was making back door deals with him?
__________________
"“Perhaps one of the most important accomplishments of my administration has been minding my own business.”" — Calvin Coolidge
Posts: 53,202
BucEyedPea is obviously part of the inner Circle.BucEyedPea is obviously part of the inner Circle.BucEyedPea is obviously part of the inner Circle.BucEyedPea is obviously part of the inner Circle.BucEyedPea is obviously part of the inner Circle.BucEyedPea is obviously part of the inner Circle.BucEyedPea is obviously part of the inner Circle.BucEyedPea is obviously part of the inner Circle.BucEyedPea is obviously part of the inner Circle.BucEyedPea is obviously part of the inner Circle.BucEyedPea is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-09-2012, 03:38 PM   #1548
patteeu patteeu is offline
The 23rd Pillar
 
patteeu's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2002
Casino cash: $463174
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitt Gorilla View Post
Why did idiots continue to claim that Dems were oversampled?

Edit: Never mind. Just saw the Marshall quote. It does, however, seem odd that the polls got this phenomenon correct and people still refused to believe it existed.
It's also odd that Rasmussen ran large sample size polls on party identification and the results are dramatically different than the party identification results in the non-Rasmussen presidential preference polls and the actual presidential ballots. That seems to have been one of the things that led people to believe the state polls were having trouble getting a valid sample.
__________________


"Well, it is one thing for Bill Clinton to say, I feel your pain. It is another thing for Barack Obama to say I feel your pain that I have caused." - George Will
Posts: 74,220
patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-10-2012, 06:33 AM   #1549
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
The Master
 
whoman69's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Marion, IA
Casino cash: $61445
Quote:
Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
It's also odd that Rasmussen ran large sample size polls on party identification and the results are dramatically different than the party identification results in the non-Rasmussen presidential preference polls and the actual presidential ballots. That seems to have been one of the things that led people to believe the state polls were having trouble getting a valid sample.
The biggest thing that led people believe the state polls were having trouble getting a valid sample is self deception. Are you saying that Republicans purposefully lied to only Rasmussen to make Romney look better with independents? Rasmussen was wrong because of cheap outmoded methods and their insistence at using party identification to weight their polls when in reality people change self identification all the time.
__________________
-Watching Eddie Podolak
Quote:
Originally posted by Logical
When the boobs are a bouncin, the Chiefs will be trouncin
What the Raiders fan has said is true, our customs are different. What Al Davis has said is unimportant, and we do not hear his words.
Posts: 23,082
whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-10-2012, 06:43 AM   #1550
BigRedChief BigRedChief is offline
Brainwashed
 
BigRedChief's Avatar
 

Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Swims with fishes
Casino cash: $291883
Quote:
Originally Posted by whoman69 View Post
Rasmussen was wrong because of cheap outmoded methods and their insistence at using party identification to weight their polls when in reality people change self identification all the time.
And they don't call cell phones, correct?

This is another lesson that Republicans need to learn. All the polls, as in 90% of them saying basically the same thing are not skewed, bias just because the numbers are not the ones that you want to see for your candidate.
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris616 View Post
There is a place inside man where his life can be terminated on voice command. Its the fail safe device meant to be used at the end of times.
Posts: 41,476
BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-10-2012, 07:42 AM   #1551
patteeu patteeu is offline
The 23rd Pillar
 
patteeu's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2002
Casino cash: $463174
Quote:
Originally Posted by whoman69 View Post
The biggest thing that led people believe the state polls were having trouble getting a valid sample is self deception. Are you saying that Republicans purposefully lied to only Rasmussen to make Romney look better with independents? Rasmussen was wrong because of cheap outmoded methods and their insistence at using party identification to weight their polls when in reality people change self identification all the time.
I see that you didn't understand the point I made.
__________________


"Well, it is one thing for Bill Clinton to say, I feel your pain. It is another thing for Barack Obama to say I feel your pain that I have caused." - George Will
Posts: 74,220
patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-10-2012, 07:44 AM   #1552
patteeu patteeu is offline
The 23rd Pillar
 
patteeu's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2002
Casino cash: $463174
Quote:
Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
And they don't call cell phones, correct?

This is another lesson that Republicans need to learn. All the polls, as in 90% of them saying basically the same thing are not skewed, bias just because the numbers are not the ones that you want to see for your candidate.
The same kind of thing happened in 2004 except in reverse so I wouldn't get too overwhelmed with pride if I were you.
__________________


"Well, it is one thing for Bill Clinton to say, I feel your pain. It is another thing for Barack Obama to say I feel your pain that I have caused." - George Will
Posts: 74,220
patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-10-2012, 12:55 PM   #1553
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
The Master
 
whoman69's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Marion, IA
Casino cash: $61445
BTW Florida officially called for Obama. Allen West trying to sue for a recount though legally not mandated. Lost the first round of that. Race still hasn't been called but the idiot is 2000 votes down.
__________________
-Watching Eddie Podolak
Quote:
Originally posted by Logical
When the boobs are a bouncin, the Chiefs will be trouncin
What the Raiders fan has said is true, our customs are different. What Al Davis has said is unimportant, and we do not hear his words.
Posts: 23,082
whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-10-2012, 01:42 PM   #1554
ILChief ILChief is offline
MVP
 
ILChief's Avatar
 

Join Date: Jan 2001
Casino cash: $10063181
Quote:
Originally Posted by whoman69 View Post
BTW Florida officially called for Obama. Allen West trying to sue for a recount though legally not mandated. Lost the first round of that. Race still hasn't been called but the idiot is 2000 votes down.
West trying to waste taxpayer money
Posts: 5,841
ILChief would the whole thing.ILChief would the whole thing.ILChief would the whole thing.ILChief would the whole thing.ILChief would the whole thing.ILChief would the whole thing.ILChief would the whole thing.ILChief would the whole thing.ILChief would the whole thing.ILChief would the whole thing.ILChief would the whole thing.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-10-2012, 02:47 PM   #1555
aturnis aturnis is offline
MVP
 
aturnis's Avatar
 

Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Iowa
Casino cash: $89210
West is scum.
Posts: 10,261
aturnis Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.aturnis Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.aturnis Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.aturnis Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.aturnis Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.aturnis Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.aturnis Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.aturnis Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.aturnis Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.aturnis Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.aturnis Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-10-2012, 04:08 PM   #1556
BigRedChief BigRedChief is offline
Brainwashed
 
BigRedChief's Avatar
 

Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Swims with fishes
Casino cash: $291883
Nate Silver@fivethirtyeight Not safe to assume that the "internal polls" leaked to the press = what a campaign really thinks.
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris616 View Post
There is a place inside man where his life can be terminated on voice command. Its the fail safe device meant to be used at the end of times.
Posts: 41,476
BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-11-2012, 07:53 AM   #1557
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
The Master
 
whoman69's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Marion, IA
Casino cash: $61445
Quote:
Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
Nate Silver@fivethirtyeight Not safe to assume that the "internal polls" leaked to the press = what a campaign really thinks.
IMO internal polls are the information they give to the candidate so that he will continue to campaign instead of giving up.
__________________
-Watching Eddie Podolak
Quote:
Originally posted by Logical
When the boobs are a bouncin, the Chiefs will be trouncin
What the Raiders fan has said is true, our customs are different. What Al Davis has said is unimportant, and we do not hear his words.
Posts: 23,082
whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-11-2012, 04:22 PM   #1558
BigRedChief BigRedChief is offline
Brainwashed
 
BigRedChief's Avatar
 

Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Swims with fishes
Casino cash: $291883
Quote:
Originally Posted by whoman69 View Post
IMO internal polls are the information they give to the candidate so that he will continue to campaign instead of giving up.
and the media took the "internal polls" as some kind of gospel when it was leaked.
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris616 View Post
There is a place inside man where his life can be terminated on voice command. Its the fail safe device meant to be used at the end of times.
Posts: 41,476
BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-13-2012, 02:34 PM   #1559
dirk digler dirk digler is offline
Please squeeze
 
dirk digler's Avatar
 

Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Clinton, MO
Casino cash: $179190
Nothing like a good ass kicking to get the truth to come out.

Quote:
"I think that there was a period of time when the Romney campaign was falling apart, people were not optimistic, nobody thought there was a chance of victory and I felt that it was my duty at that point to go out and say what I said."

-- Dick Morris, in an interview on Fox News, explaining why he predicted a landslide for Mitt Romney in the presidential election.
Posts: 47,297
dirk digler 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.dirk digler 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.dirk digler 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.dirk digler 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.dirk digler 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.dirk digler 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.dirk digler 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.dirk digler 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.dirk digler 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.dirk digler 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.dirk digler 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-13-2012, 04:25 PM   #1560
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
The Master
 
whoman69's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Marion, IA
Casino cash: $61445
Quote:
Originally Posted by dirk digler View Post
Nothing like a good ass kicking to get the truth to come out.
Dick Morris denial.

__________________
-Watching Eddie Podolak
Quote:
Originally posted by Logical
When the boobs are a bouncin, the Chiefs will be trouncin
What the Raiders fan has said is true, our customs are different. What Al Davis has said is unimportant, and we do not hear his words.
Posts: 23,082
whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.
  Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -6. The time now is 11:39 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.0
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.