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Old 09-26-2012, 09:12 PM  
cdcox cdcox is offline
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Playoff and Draft Pick Odds, 2012

nfl-forecast.com is back for another season.

After Week 3
As of the moment, the Chiefs odds of making the playoffs are 10%.

The distribution of potential wins and draft picks will be shown in my next post.

Unfortunately, this season is shaping up to be a classic case of being Piolied by the Cassel maneuver.

Midway through Week 12

We have an 81% chance of getting the overall #1 pick.

We can afford to win a game, and in all likelihood, still take the number one overall pick. For example, if we win one game and Jacksonville loses out, we will still get the overall #1 pick 99% of the time. If we beat Carolina and they lose out, we still get the #1 pick 75% of the time.

The Chiefs are eliminated from the playoffs.

Midway through week 13

As of now odds of getting the #1 draft pick:

KC 55%
Jax 24%
Oakland 15%
Philly 4%
Field 2%

Midway through week 14

KC 55%
Jax 31%
Oakland 14%
Only 3 with decent odds.

Midway through week 15

KC 70%
Jac 30%
Oakland <<1%

KC guaranteed a top 3 spot

Midway through week 16

KC 92%
Jax 8%

Only way we don't get it is if we beat Denver and Jax loses to TN (barring ties).

Last edited by cdcox; 12-23-2012 at 03:26 PM..
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Old 12-02-2012, 06:51 PM   #196
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If the Browns kick our ass next week and Jacksonville wins, that would do wonders.
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Old 12-02-2012, 06:52 PM   #197
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Quote:
Originally Posted by O.city View Post
We need McFadden to get healthy.


Richardson will run all over us next week. Could be without both starting ILB's, Flowers and Lewis on D.

It will get destroyed the next couple weeks.
Did something happen to DJ? He looked fine in the post-game press conference clip that I saw.
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Old 12-02-2012, 06:53 PM   #198
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Originally Posted by alnorth View Post
Which of those teams are most likely to draft QB? I know if we don't have the pick and the #1 pick doesn't want Geno we'll probably be too gutless to trade up, but just out of curiosity, who among the five will pick Geno?
Jax, oak, Philly
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Old 12-02-2012, 06:54 PM   #199
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rain Man View Post
Did something happen to DJ? He looked fine in the post-game press conference clip that I saw.
He didn't play the last couple possessions.
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Old 12-02-2012, 06:54 PM   #200
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
Now:

KC 55%
Jax 24%
Oakland 15%
Philly 4%
Field 2%
Your system is flawed. Oakland and Philly look like they'll never win another game. The Chiefs will get at least 1 win. That's why I'm not buying that 55% number.
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Old 12-02-2012, 06:56 PM   #201
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Quote:
Originally Posted by O.city View Post
We need McFadden to get healthy.


Richardson will run all over us next week. Could be without both starting ILB's, Flowers and Lewis on D.

It will get destroyed the next couple weeks.
Ian Rapoport ‏@RapSheet

Good news for #Raiders... and @NFLNetwork. RT @CorkOnTheNFL: Coach Allen said he expects McFadden to play Thursday night.
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Old 12-02-2012, 06:57 PM   #202
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ChiefsandO'sfan View Post
Your system is flawed. Oakland and Philly look like they'll never win another game. The Chiefs will get at least 1 win. That's why I'm not buying that 55% number.
His system has been dead on as long as I can remember.

If McCoy and Vick come back, the Eagles can win a game.

I don't know how you say the system is flawed, but then in the next sentence state your own opinion about how it shakes out.

The Chiefs do not play a defense as bad as the Panthers again this year. They aren't winning another game.
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Old 12-02-2012, 06:57 PM   #203
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Bad Guy View Post
His system has been dead on as long as I can remember.

If McCoy and Vick come back, the Eagles can win a game.

I don't know how you say the system is flawed, but then in the next sentence state your own opinion about how it shakes out.

The Chiefs do not play a defense as bad as the Panthers again this year. They aren't winning another game.
Hope your right.
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Old 12-02-2012, 06:58 PM   #204
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cassel's Reckoning View Post
It's just so ****ing infuriating to be THIS CLOSE to a potential franchise QB.

And thinking about falling short.

Patriotards, just lose. For us.
To be honest, I think there's going to be conflicting opinions among teams who is the true #1 QB.

It's not like if we do win a game and miss out on it, there's Andrew Luck sitting there.
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Old 12-02-2012, 06:58 PM   #205
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Bad Guy View Post
His system has been dead on as long as I can remember.

If McCoy and Vick come back, the Eagles can win a game.

I don't know how you say the system is flawed, but then in the next sentence state your own opinion about how it shakes out.

The Chiefs do not play a defense as bad as the Panthers again this year. They aren't winning another game.
I knew that was how the asshole should come back. twitter says something, ceedy's system is flawed
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Old 12-02-2012, 06:58 PM   #206
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ChiefsandO'sfan View Post
Your system is flawed. Oakland and Philly look like they'll never win another game. The Chiefs will get at least 1 win. That's why I'm not buying that 55% number.
People were saying the Chiefs wouldn't win another game last week. Now you have them sweeping their remaining games. The inherent strength of this system is that it rationally calculates the odds of the outcome of each game without human biases.
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Old 12-02-2012, 06:59 PM   #207
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Originally Posted by O.city View Post
He didn't play the last couple possessions.
I saw him on the sidelines, but I think that was a formation package. We had eight defensive backs in, with Hali, Poe, and one other guy rushing. (Houston?) I remember being surprised that he was out, but he looked like he was just watching.

I'm not positive that I'd rather have our eighth defensive back in the game over DJ, regardless of the formation.
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Old 12-02-2012, 07:01 PM   #208
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He was taken out of the game, went to the locker room and came back out with ice on his hamstring.

He's the only Lb we actually leave in on sub stuff, why would we replace him with Greenwood if he wasn't hurt?
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Old 12-02-2012, 07:01 PM   #209
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rain Man View Post
I saw him on the sidelines, but I think that was a formation package. We had eight defensive backs in, with Hali, Poe, and one other guy rushing. (Houston?) I remember being surprised that he was out, but he looked like he was just watching.

I'm not positive that I'd rather have our eighth defensive back in the game over DJ, regardless of the formation.
He tweaked his hammy chasing Cam Newton and didn't come back after that.
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Old 12-02-2012, 07:01 PM   #210
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
People were saying the Chiefs wouldn't win another game last week. Now you have them sweeping their remaining games. The inherent strength of this system is that it rationally calculates the odds of the outcome of each game without human biases.
I don't think the Raiders win another game this year....
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