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Old 09-26-2012, 08:12 PM  
cdcox cdcox is offline
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Playoff and Draft Pick Odds, 2012

nfl-forecast.com is back for another season.

After Week 3
As of the moment, the Chiefs odds of making the playoffs are 10%.

The distribution of potential wins and draft picks will be shown in my next post.

Unfortunately, this season is shaping up to be a classic case of being Piolied by the Cassel maneuver.

Midway through Week 12

We have an 81% chance of getting the overall #1 pick.

We can afford to win a game, and in all likelihood, still take the number one overall pick. For example, if we win one game and Jacksonville loses out, we will still get the overall #1 pick 99% of the time. If we beat Carolina and they lose out, we still get the #1 pick 75% of the time.

The Chiefs are eliminated from the playoffs.

Midway through week 13

As of now odds of getting the #1 draft pick:

KC 55%
Jax 24%
Oakland 15%
Philly 4%
Field 2%

Midway through week 14

KC 55%
Jax 31%
Oakland 14%
Only 3 with decent odds.

Midway through week 15

KC 70%
Jac 30%
Oakland <<1%

KC guaranteed a top 3 spot

Midway through week 16

KC 92%
Jax 8%

Only way we don't get it is if we beat Denver and Jax loses to TN (barring ties).

Last edited by cdcox; 12-23-2012 at 02:26 PM..
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Old 12-02-2012, 06:02 PM   #211
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Also the Faid have the Chargers, and they are in complete disarray.
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Old 12-02-2012, 06:04 PM   #212
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That Tebow vs the Jags game next week will be fun LOL
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Old 12-02-2012, 06:04 PM   #213
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Quote:
Originally Posted by O.city View Post
Also the Faid have the Chargers, and they are in complete disarray.
The Chargers have about a 0.5 to 1% chance to get the overall #1. They are part of "the field".
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Old 12-02-2012, 06:05 PM   #214
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
The Chargers have about a 0.5 to 1% chance to get the overall #1. They are part of "the field".
Meant that the Faid could beat the Chargers.
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Old 12-02-2012, 06:05 PM   #215
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Eagles enter tonight with 7-game losing streak; haven't lost 8 straight in single season since 1968


Hope the Eagles win tonight.
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Old 12-02-2012, 06:06 PM   #216
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Quote:
Originally Posted by O.city View Post
Meant that the Faid could beat the Chargers.
And I was agreeing that the Chargers are terrible.
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Old 12-02-2012, 06:09 PM   #217
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Quote:
Originally Posted by O.city View Post
Meant that the Faid could beat the Chargers.
No chance in hell, there is zero defense at the Raiders...
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Old 12-02-2012, 06:09 PM   #218
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I enjoy a season with a dramatic ending. Will we make it? Will we fail? We still control our own destiny, so it's up to the fine warriors in red.
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Old 12-02-2012, 06:14 PM   #219
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The Chiefs do not play a defense as bad as the Panthers again this year. They aren't winning another game.
Raiders are worst in NFL in points against.
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Old 12-02-2012, 06:16 PM   #220
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I don't think the Raiders win another game this year....
Oh, go to hell, we're losing to you in 2 weeks. Two weeks, YOU HEAR ME?!? We're going DOWN!
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Old 12-02-2012, 06:18 PM   #221
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Quote:
Originally Posted by highBOLTage View Post
Raiders are worst in NFL in points against.
The Chiefs scored 13 points against them at home...and 7 of them were in garbage time.

We can never seem to run block very well against them, so we become one dimensional...And I know Quinn played the best game a Chiefs QB has played this year, but I can't see him playing that well again this year, especially on the road.
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Old 12-02-2012, 06:21 PM   #222
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Originally Posted by alnorth View Post
Oh, go to hell, we're losing to you in 2 weeks. Two weeks, YOU HEAR ME?!? We're going DOWN!
Not unless you break Charles' leg ....

Seriously, we have the worst defense I have ever seen in my entire life.

Chiefs 27... Raiders 20
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Old 12-02-2012, 06:21 PM   #223
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The Chiefs scored 13 points against them at home...and 7 of them were in garbage time.

We can never seem to run block very well against them, so we become one dimensional...And I know Quinn played the best game a Chiefs QB has played this year, but I can't see him playing that well again this year, especially on the road.
We really haven't been able to block well against them in any aspect recently.
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I have completely given up on Alex Smith as a qb. Its painful to watch. Like, worse than watching Colt McCoy.
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Old 12-02-2012, 06:37 PM   #224
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The end of season tiebreakers for the overall #1 pick breakdown like this:

Against the Jags we almost always win

Against the Raiders we always lose.

Against Phili we win about 82% of the tiebreakers.
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Old 12-02-2012, 06:53 PM   #225
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That Tebow vs the Jags game next week will be fun LOL
A lot of people around here have wanted McElroy to start over Sanchez. There will be a good amount of push to keep him in over Tebow.
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