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Old 09-26-2012, 08:12 PM  
cdcox cdcox is offline
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Playoff and Draft Pick Odds, 2012

nfl-forecast.com is back for another season.

After Week 3
As of the moment, the Chiefs odds of making the playoffs are 10%.

The distribution of potential wins and draft picks will be shown in my next post.

Unfortunately, this season is shaping up to be a classic case of being Piolied by the Cassel maneuver.

Midway through Week 12

We have an 81% chance of getting the overall #1 pick.

We can afford to win a game, and in all likelihood, still take the number one overall pick. For example, if we win one game and Jacksonville loses out, we will still get the overall #1 pick 99% of the time. If we beat Carolina and they lose out, we still get the #1 pick 75% of the time.

The Chiefs are eliminated from the playoffs.

Midway through week 13

As of now odds of getting the #1 draft pick:

KC 55%
Jax 24%
Oakland 15%
Philly 4%
Field 2%

Midway through week 14

KC 55%
Jax 31%
Oakland 14%
Only 3 with decent odds.

Midway through week 15

KC 70%
Jac 30%
Oakland <<1%

KC guaranteed a top 3 spot

Midway through week 16

KC 92%
Jax 8%

Only way we don't get it is if we beat Denver and Jax loses to TN (barring ties).

Last edited by cdcox; 12-23-2012 at 02:26 PM..
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Old 12-03-2012, 12:09 AM   #241
DaneMcCloud DaneMcCloud is offline
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Originally Posted by Sorter View Post
I will not be happy. Taking an ILB in the top 10 is a mistake IMO.

Drafting Glennon as your franchise QB would be a mistake as well.
I agree 100%.

But right now, on December 2, 2012, neither would surprise me.
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Old 12-03-2012, 12:13 AM   #242
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I agree 100%.

But right now, on December 2, 2012, neither would surprise me.
Yup.

It's will honestly be worst than last year if we **** this up. We were close to getting Luck/RG3 or Tannehill and if we don't end up with Geno or even Wilson, I am gonna be sad.

Especially if we take an ILB in the top 10. JFC.
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I have completely given up on Alex Smith as a qb. Its painful to watch. Like, worse than watching Colt McCoy.
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Old 12-03-2012, 12:23 AM   #243
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Really is Geno or bust.....
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Old 12-03-2012, 01:31 AM   #244
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I'm gonna cry if Geno ends up a raider.
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Old 12-03-2012, 02:00 AM   #245
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I'm gonna cry if Geno ends up a raider.
DONT EVEN SAY THAT!!!!!
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Old 12-03-2012, 02:07 AM   #246
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Chill out guys.

It's not the end of the world if we take Wilson.
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Old 12-03-2012, 02:10 AM   #247
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Originally Posted by Cassel's Reckoning View Post
Chill out guys.

It's not the end of the world if we take Wilson.
No. But it would be if a) Chiefs pass on Geno or b) Raiders draft Geno.
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Old 12-03-2012, 02:15 AM   #248
Tribal Warfare Tribal Warfare is offline
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Originally Posted by Cassel's Reckoning View Post
Chill out guys.

It's not the end of the world if we take Wilson.
personally I'd rather have Bray, Wilson has an injury history and has taken a shitload of hits already.
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Old 12-03-2012, 06:20 AM   #249
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I'm actually a fan of Wilson. He's got a shit o-line and shit receivers and stills led plays. He is also as tough as it gets. But he does make some poooor decisions. The tape from the ole miss game is pretty bad
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Old 12-03-2012, 06:34 AM   #250
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Originally Posted by Cassel's Reckoning View Post
Chill out guys.

It's not the end of the world if we take Wilson.
It's not the end of the world if we get the #2 pick then.
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Old 12-03-2012, 06:39 AM   #251
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personally I'd rather have Bray, Wilson has an injury history and has taken a shitload of hits already.
I don't know about Bray. He has the ideal set of tangibles.

But I'm not sure he has the emotional/mental mindset to be a top-flight NFL QB. The more I hear, the more I think Ryan Leaf or Jamarcus Russell.
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Old 12-03-2012, 07:03 AM   #252
Tribal Warfare Tribal Warfare is offline
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I don't know about Bray. He has the ideal set of tangibles.

But I'm not sure he has the emotional/mental mindset to be a top-flight NFL QB. The more I hear, the more I think Ryan Leaf or Jamarcus Russell.
See that's the thing, from my impression Bray could be like Marino in which it comes all together and starts tearing it up. He has a great bust value, no question but Bray's situation reminds me of Marino a lot that the pros may very well outweigh the cons.
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Old 12-03-2012, 07:06 AM   #253
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See that's the thing, from my impression Bray could be like Marino in which it comes all together and starts tearing it up. He has a great bust value, no question but Bray's situation reminds me of Marino a lot that the pros may very well outweigh the cons.
How many Super Bowls did Marino win?

In many ways, Marino is the poster child for the "prick" QB that never could become a real leader of men.

I guess beggars can't be choosers, but I don't want Phillip Rivers or Jay Culter. Stats don't win championships, winners do.
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Old 12-03-2012, 07:18 AM   #254
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Bray is a QB that will boom or bust. If he busts it will be quick so that we can move on and try another QB that we drafted during his developement.
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Old 12-03-2012, 07:24 AM   #255
htismaqe htismaqe is offline
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Bray is a QB that will boom or bust. If he busts it will be quick so that we can move on and try another QB that we drafted during his developement.
So one of his "selling points" is that he'd be easier to replace?

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