The Fiscal Cliff Approacheth

[Direckshun]

In an effort to make this thread sticky-worthy, I am going to update this OP to keep casual glancers informed.

This post is the official one-stop shopping of the key points/developments of the fiscal cliff negotiations.

Far as I understand, the fiscal cliff:

1. Gets rid of the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy.
2. Gets rid of the Bush tax cuts for everybody else.
3. Slashes defense spending by something like $500 billion.
4. Slashes domestic programs like the NIH, Head Start, and medicine/drug care for the poor by $500 billion.

The new idea is for Democrats to allow the cliff to hit, then immediately introduce a bill that would bring 2, 4, and some of 3 back. But not 1.

Here is a chart detailing exactly what the fiscal cliff is going to do, financially:

Spoiler!

Originally Posted by Direckshun

New CBO projection: if the fiscal cliff hits, we are in another recession, and lose two million jobs.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...87L0JV20120822

The poor would be hurt by the fiscal cliff:

Originally Posted by Direckshun

Overall, if the tax breaks from the 2009 stimulus are allowed to expire—the EITC and Child Tax Credit expansions, along with American Opportunity Credit for college tuition—the poorest 20 percent of Americans would see their taxes go up by $209 on average, reducing their after-tax income by 1.9 percent, according to the Tax Policy Center.

As would the middle class:

Originally Posted by Direckshun

According to estimates by the Tax Policy Center, more than half of all married couples will owe an additional tax of around $4,000 unless Congress acts. And more than a third of families with children will fall subject to the AMT, with parents of three or more children facing an extra tax of $4,700.

Among married couples with at least two children and adjusted gross income between $75,000 and $100,000, the center estimates that 84 percent will face a significantly higher tax bill this year because of the AMT.

There seems to be some consensus between the parties that substantial revenues want to be raised. Boehner and the GOP hopes that's through limiting tax deductions rather than tax raises.

Obama's opening offer, essentially:

• Allow the Bush tax cuts on high earners to expire. $849 billion
• Limit itemized deductions to 28 percent, close some loopholes and deductions on high earners, eliminate tax breaks for oil and gas companies, eliminate the carried interest loophole, plus a few other items. $584 billion
• Create a special "Buffett Rule" tax rate for millionaires. $47 billion
• Restore the estate tax to 2009 levels. $143 billion
• Limit corporate income shifting to low-tax countries. $148 billion
• Other miscellaneous tax increases and reductions. About -$200 billion
• Total: $1.6 trillion

[JonesCrusher]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

The Republicans are losing, and time is running out. But instead of putting the quarterback on the field and rolling out an aggressive two-minute drill, they seem to be preparing to punt.

Obama won! He is the quarterback.

[HonestChieffan]

Originally Posted by JonesCrusher

Obama won! He is the quarterback.

Very Cassel like in his approach and results

[DementedLogic]

False Balance in the Fiscal Cliff Deal: Real Tax Hikes, Fake Spending Cuts

Peter Suderman|Nov. 29, 2012 2:15 pm

Neither Democrats nor Republicans are providing
much in the way of details about the fiscal cliff negotiations, at
least not on the record. But Politico
reports a few details about what kind of deal we might be able
to expect: Taxes will rise by $1.2 trillion or a little less. At
the same time, "there will be at least $1.2 trillion in spending
cuts and 'war savings.'" Presumably the idea will be for the
spending cuts and tax hikes to appear to balance each other out.
But it's only an appearance.

That's because claiming that so-called "war savings" are a
spending cut is Washington's
favorite budget gimmick.*Doing so would allow legislators
to take credit for savings that are already going to happen.
Counting war savings would mean that almost no real cuts are
necessary: The Congressional Budget Office scored it earlier this
year as "saving" about $850 billion. That's money that was never
going to be spent, but gets counted as a "cut" anyway.*

Finally, Politico reports that some sort of entitlement
cuts may be part of the deal as well. What kind? Who knows?
Republicans won't say what they want. And Democrats won't make an
offer of their own. Nor are they likely to show up any time soon.
The report also suggests that the cuts could end up totaling about
$400 billion, or perhaps more, at least eventually. "Democrats want
most Medicare and other entitlement savings to kick in between 10
and 20 years from now," the story says. Which, given the
congressional history of delay and avoidance on long-planned
Medicare cuts, may as well be never.*

So if Politico's report is right, that's where things
stand: Real tax hikes, fake spending cuts, and a half-hearted
gesture toward Medicare cuts a decade from now. If that's the deal,
it's not much of one.*

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

Mmmm, not so sure.

It doesn't really do anything. No other Western democracy has one.

All it does is freak out the markets, and tank the economy in high-profile debt limit disputes.

Republicans are already planning another one, for instance.

Yeah, let's let the Pres rasie the debt ceiling all he wants......

[HonestChieffan]

There is no mystery. Its a game. Both sides must look tough. Taxes will go up for everyone before its over. And a ton of spending will be announced. Only the spending cuts will start in 2025 or some shit. Dem and Rep alike are being raped. Get ready.

[mlyonsd]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

Obama's offer also reportedly asked to end Congress' control over the debt limit.

These guys must be sniffing glue.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by mlyonsd

These guys must be sniffing glue.

Must be. The Republicans offer was straight out of the Romney playbook. We will cut spending and medicare but we have no details. Going to close loopholes but no details but we can give you solid #'s on what we will save on those undisclosed details.

It's like the election didn't take place.

[-King-]

Boehner Makes Fiscal Cliff Counter-Offer
By John Parkinson | ABC OTUS News – 1 hr 56 mins ago
Boehner Makes Fiscal Cliff Counter-Offer (ABC News)


ABC OTUS News - Boehner Makes Fiscal Cliff Counter-Offer (ABC News)

House Speaker John Boehner today sent President Obama a counter-proposal on how to cut the deficit that he called a "credible plan" to break the stalemate in negotiations to keep the country from going off the "fiscal cliff."

In the plan, Republicans offer a total of $2.2 trillion in deficit reduction over the next decade. That would give lawmakers enough savings to off-set $1.2 trillion in automatic cuts set to begin to take effect Jan. 2, 2013, but senior Republican aides said it does not explicitly include an offer to address the standoff over whether the president or Congress should have power over debt limit increases.

The GOP deal offers $800 billion in new revenue through tax reform, but Boehner insist that tax rates should not go up on the top 2 percent of taxpayers.

The offer also proposes $600 billion in health savings, $300 billion in additional mandatory savings, $300 billion in discretionary spending cuts, and $200 billion through revisions to the way the Consumer Price Index is calculated across federal pensions and programs like Social Security.

"What we're putting forth is a credible plan that deserves serious consideration by the White House, and I would hope that they would respond in a timely and responsible way," Boehner, R-Ohio, told reporters today when he dropped into a staff briefing on the counteroffer. "We could have responded in kind, but decided not to do that."

"Going over the cliff will hurt our economy and hurt job creation in our country. It's one of the reasons why the day after the election, I offered a concession to try to speed this process up by putting revenue on the table," Boehner said.

"Unfortunately the White House responded with the La-la-land offer that couldn't pass the House, couldn't pass the Senate."

Boehner said the president's offer last week was "basically the president's budget from last February," which he noted received no votes in the House and no votes in the Senate.

Now, in a letter to the president, House Republicans devised an offer based on Erskine Bowles' proposal to the Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction, the so-called super committee.

The president had asked for about $1.6 trillion in new revenue, including about $800 billion from allowing tax cuts on income over $250,000 a year expire. Obama also asked for about $400 billion in new stimulus spending.

The letter with the proposal was sent to the president around 2 p.m. today.

The speaker said he did not intend to speak with the president personally about the offer, but he "might run into him" tonight at a holiday reception at the White House.

[mlyonsd]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

Must be. The Republicans offer was straight out of the Romney playbook. We will cut spending and medicare but we have no details. Going to close loopholes but no details but we can give you solid #'s on what we will save on those undisclosed details.

It's like the election didn't take place.

The election did take place. It ended up being status quo whether you like it or not. That means both sides must continue to negotiate, there is no Obama mandate.

But do you think eliminating the debt ceiling is a good idea?

[go bowe]

Originally Posted by mlyonsd

The election did take place. It ended up being status quo whether you like it or not. That means both sides must continue to negotiate, there is no Obama mandate.

But do you think eliminating the debt ceiling is a good idea?

yes...

[mlyonsd]

Originally Posted by go bowe

yes...

no....

[donkhater]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

It's like the election didn't take place.

You realize we live in a Republic and not a Democracy right?

If America were a Democracy you'd have a place to bitch, but in a Republic, people send their representatives to Washington to give voice to their views. Some of those voices don't happen to agree with the insane spending majority currently in power. I, for one, am grateful for any influence they have in these 'talks'.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by mlyonsd

The election did take place. It ended up being status quo whether you like it or not. That means both sides must continue to negotiate, there is no Obama mandate.

But do you think eliminating the debt ceiling is a good idea?

The American people voted to raise taxes on the rich to provide the revenue part of a balanced approach.

Yes, we should do away with the stupid ass debt ceiling votes that have become political tools. We already spent the money. We have to pay the money back. We don't save a single penny on these battles, Not one thin dime. We already got our credit downgraded last time. It's costing us $39 billion more in interest. That was really smart.

If you are really interested in getting the federal government to live within its means. Get a balanced budget amendment passed.

Until then, we borrowed the money, we must pay it back.

[patteeu]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

The American people voted to raise taxes on the rich to provide the revenue part of a balanced approach.

Yes, we should do away with the stupid ass debt ceiling votes that have become political tools. We already spent the money. We have to pay the money back. We don't save a single penny on these battles, Not one thin dime. We already got our credit downgraded last time. It's costing us $39 billion more in interest. That was really smart.

If you are really interested in getting the federal government to live within its means. Get a balanced budget amendment passed.

Until then, we borrowed the money, we must pay it back.

The debt ceiling doesn't prevent the government from paying it's debts, I prevents government from making new debt.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by patteeu

The debt ceiling doesn't prevent the government from paying it's debts, I prevents government from making new debt.

Wrong. It causes us to default on our debts and cost us billions and billions more in interest we will never get back.

But I see what your doing.....Let's default, ruin our credit rating...the international banks get to charge us billions and billions more and the 1% make tons more money.