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Old 07-20-2012, 10:41 AM  
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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The Fiscal Cliff Approacheth

In an effort to make this thread sticky-worthy, I am going to update this OP to keep casual glancers informed.

This post is the official one-stop shopping of the key points/developments of the fiscal cliff negotiations.

Far as I understand, the fiscal cliff:

1. Gets rid of the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy.
2. Gets rid of the Bush tax cuts for everybody else.
3. Slashes defense spending by something like $500 billion.
4. Slashes domestic programs like the NIH, Head Start, and medicine/drug care for the poor by $500 billion.

The new idea is for Democrats to allow the cliff to hit, then immediately introduce a bill that would bring 2, 4, and some of 3 back. But not 1.

Here is a chart detailing exactly what the fiscal cliff is going to do, financially:

Spoiler!


Quote:
Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
New CBO projection: if the fiscal cliff hits, we are in another recession, and lose two million jobs.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...87L0JV20120822
The poor would be hurt by the fiscal cliff:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
Overall, if the tax breaks from the 2009 stimulus are allowed to expire—the EITC and Child Tax Credit expansions, along with American Opportunity Credit for college tuition—the poorest 20 percent of Americans would see their taxes go up by $209 on average, reducing their after-tax income by 1.9 percent, according to the Tax Policy Center.
As would the middle class:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
According to estimates by the Tax Policy Center, more than half of all married couples will owe an additional tax of around $4,000 unless Congress acts. And more than a third of families with children will fall subject to the AMT, with parents of three or more children facing an extra tax of $4,700.

Among married couples with at least two children and adjusted gross income between $75,000 and $100,000, the center estimates that 84 percent will face a significantly higher tax bill this year because of the AMT.
There seems to be some consensus between the parties that substantial revenues want to be raised. Boehner and the GOP hopes that's through limiting tax deductions rather than tax raises.

Obama's opening offer, essentially:

Quote:
  • Allow the Bush tax cuts on high earners to expire. $849 billion
  • Limit itemized deductions to 28 percent, close some loopholes and deductions on high earners, eliminate tax breaks for oil and gas companies, eliminate the carried interest loophole, plus a few other items. $584 billion
  • Create a special "Buffett Rule" tax rate for millionaires. $47 billion
  • Restore the estate tax to 2009 levels. $143 billion
  • Limit corporate income shifting to low-tax countries. $148 billion
  • Other miscellaneous tax increases and reductions. About -$200 billion
  • Total: $1.6 trillion

Last edited by Direckshun; 11-14-2012 at 09:54 AM..
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Old 12-06-2012, 03:05 PM   #481
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
Link?

Can you link to one legitimate political commentator that agrees with you on this?

We just went through this with Brainiac, who was making the same assinine claim.
Go Chiefs.

http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/defa...ssets/hist.pdf

Page 22-23.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Whitehouse.gov
In millions of dollars:
2008 “Total” “Receipts” $2,523,991 “Outlays” $2,982,544 “Surplus or Deficit (-)” -$458,553
2009 “Total” “Receipts” $2,104,989 “Outlays” $3,517,677 “Surplus or Deficit (-)” -$1,412,688
2010 “Total” “Receipts” $2,162,724 “Outlays” $3,456,213 “Surplus or Deficit (-)” -$1,293,489
2011 “Total” “Receipts” $2,303,466 “Outlays” $3,603,061 “Surplus or Deficit (-)” -$1,299,595
2012 Est. “Total” “Receipts” $2,468,599 “Outlays” $3,795,547 “Surplus or Deficit (-)” -$1,326,948
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Old 12-06-2012, 03:29 PM   #482
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Radar Chief View Post
You know the 2009 budget was proposed and passed in 2008, right?
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Old 12-06-2012, 03:34 PM   #483
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cave Johnson View Post
You know the 2009 budget was proposed and passed in 2008, right?
Which changes the 2010-2012 budgets how exactly?
The 2009 Budget also included TARP which both Dem and Rep voted for.
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Old 12-06-2012, 04:21 PM   #484
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Radar Chief View Post
Just like Brainiac, you're just not understanding that the deficit was 1.3T as Obama was sworn in.

FactCheck.org:

Quote:
It’s true that Obama “inherited the biggest deficit in our history,” as he said on CBS. By the time Obama took office in January 2009, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office had already estimated that increased spending and decreased revenues would result in a $1.2 trillion deficit for fiscal year 2009, which began Oct. 1, 2008. In a detailed analysis of fiscal year 2009, we found that Obama was responsible for adding at most $203 billion to the deficit, which in the end topped $1.4 trillion that year.
PolitiFact:

Quote:
On Jan. 7, 2009, two weeks before Obama took office, the Congressional Budget Office reported that the deficit for fiscal year 2009 was projected to be $1.2 trillion.
NYT's Economix blog...

Quote:
Because of the large deficits Mr. Bush bequeathed Mr. Obama – on Jan. 8, 2009, the C.B.O. projected a deficit for the year of $1.3 trillion that didn’t include any Obama policies – Congress was deeply reluctant to enact a stimulus larger than $787 billion...
Reuters:

Quote:
The result: a $1.3 trillion deficit when he first took over the Oval Office.
New York Times:

Quote:
Nonpartisan analysts agree that Mr. Obama inherited a bad hand: the 2009 deficit was a projected $1.2 trillion when he took office because of Bush-era policies and an economic crisis that slashed tax collections and increased spending for jobless aid and other safety-net programs. He has added $1.4 trillion in stimulus spending and tax cuts, and he has continued the Bush policies that Democrats blame for the swing from surpluses to deficits: income tax cuts, a Medicare drug benefit and war operations.
Fox News:

Quote:
Obama inherited an economy in recession and a deficit in excess of $1 trillion.
Associated Press:

Quote:
Obama: His pledge to cut the deficit "we inherited" in half by end of first term is a mark likely to be missed by a wide margin. The deficit when he took office was $1.2 trillion, and the $800 billion stimulus bill Obama signed soon afterward increased the shortfall to more than $1.4 trillion.
Can you find any credible sources that say otherwise? People who are not on the GOP's payrolls, or a (pant)suit on a conservative media outlet?
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Old 12-06-2012, 04:29 PM   #485
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Quote:
Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
Translation: The Left won't be happy until they raise taxes on the rich becasue that just sounds good.




but but but but it will pay for about 8 days of what the Federal Gov't spends this year
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Old 12-06-2012, 04:41 PM   #486
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
Just like Brainiac, you're just not understanding that the deficit was 1.3T as Obama was sworn in.
Due to a last minute, one time expenditure known as TARP that should have no impact on subsequent budgets. Without increased spending the 2010 budget deficit would look much like the 2008 budget deficit but it doesn't because Obama increased spending.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
Can you find any credible sources that say otherwise? People who are not on the GOP's payrolls, or a (pant)suit on a conservative media outlet?
Whitehouse.gov in on GOP's payroll?
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Last edited by Radar Chief; 12-06-2012 at 04:51 PM..
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Old 12-06-2012, 04:52 PM   #487
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Radar Chief View Post
Due to a last minute, one time >$800 Billion expenditure that should have no impact on subsequent budgets. Without increased spending the 2010 budget deficit would look much like the 2008 budget deficit but it doesn't because Obama increased spending.
This is hysterically wrong.

Quote:
At the same time, federal spending rose by 18 percent, the CBO said. About half of the spending increase, $245 billion, was driven by the costs of bailing out the financial industry and taking over mortgage financiers Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

The spending increases and tax cuts included in the economic stimulus package approved in February added almost $200 billion to the 2009 deficit, the CBO said.
Meanwhile tax receipts fell by 20%. Obama walked into this shitfest, at the absolute worst he added $200 billion to it in stimulus measures.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Radar Chief View Post
Whitehouse.gov in on GOP's payroll?
It doesn't agree with you. It says the 2009 budget, created before Obama was even President, was set for a 1.3T shortfall. That's on Bush.

If you can find another credible source that is drawing the same conclusion you are, I'll be shocked. Shocked, I say.
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Old 12-06-2012, 04:59 PM   #488
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
Drawn from memory, I revised my post.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
Meanwhile tax receipts fell by 20%.
0 to do with increased spending.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
It doesn't agree with you. It says the 2009 budget, created before Obama was even President, was set for a 1.3T shortfall. That's on Bush.
Then why didn't the budget deficit fall back to pre Obama levels?
He has been POTUS for more than just '09, you know.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
If you can find another credible source that is drawing the same conclusion you are, I'll be shocked. Shocked, I say.
This one is sufficing quite well, particularly since you've yet to accuratly refute anything it says.

Here are the numbers again.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Whitehouse.gov
In millions of dollars:
2008 “Total” “Receipts” $2,523,991 “Outlays” $2,982,544 “Surplus or Deficit (-)” -$458,553
2009 “Total” “Receipts” $2,104,989 “Outlays” $3,517,677 “Surplus or Deficit (-)” -$1,412,688
2010 “Total” “Receipts” $2,162,724 “Outlays” $3,456,213 “Surplus or Deficit (-)” -$1,293,489
2011 “Total” “Receipts” $2,303,466 “Outlays” $3,603,061 “Surplus or Deficit (-)” -$1,299,595
2012 Est. “Total” “Receipts” $2,468,599 “Outlays” $3,795,547 “Surplus or Deficit (-)” -$1,326,948
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Old 12-06-2012, 05:03 PM   #489
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
This is hysterically wrong.



Meanwhile tax receipts fell by 20%. Obama walked into this shitfest, at the absolute worst he added $200 billion to it in stimulus measures.



It doesn't agree with you. It says the 2009 budget, created before Obama was even President, was set for a 1.3T shortfall. That's on Bush.

If you can find another credible source that is drawing the same conclusion you are, I'll be shocked. Shocked, I say.
Now Direckshun, you know this not completely true. Obama campaigned hard for the Tarp funds, and their "immediate need"...those funds had to be passed right away, they could not wait for him to take office. Tarp funds were technically on the Bush roll, but Obama completely supported the decision, and would have signed the Tarp legislation on his first day in office.

Tarp has both Bush's and Obama's fingerprints on it, and they both deserve the blame for what it added to the deficit for the budget that year. They both can also take credit for the positive effects (which is debatable) that Tarp had on the economy.

Acting like Obama wanted nothing to do with Tarp funds is disingenuous at best.
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Old 12-06-2012, 05:20 PM   #490
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Radar Chief View Post
0 to do with increased spending.
At least 50% to do with why the deficit has exploded prior to him taking office.

This was a conversation on the deficit, is it not?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Radar Chief View Post
Then why didn't the budget deficit fall back to pre Obama levels?
He has been POTUS for more than just '09, you know.
This is why.



Quote:
Originally Posted by Radar Chief View Post
This one is sufficing quite well, particularly since you've yet to accuratly refute anything it says.
That's because I'm not disputing the data.

The conclusion you're drawing from the data, however, is completely unsupported by any credible expert you can cite.

You won't find a single serious commentator claim Obama has doubled the deficit. But I'd love to watch you try.
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Old 12-06-2012, 05:22 PM   #491
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mnchiefsguy View Post
Now Direckshun, you know this not completely true. Obama campaigned hard for the Tarp funds, and their "immediate need"...those funds had to be passed right away, they could not wait for him to take office. Tarp funds were technically on the Bush roll, but Obama completely supported the decision, and would have signed the Tarp legislation on his first day in office.

Tarp has both Bush's and Obama's fingerprints on it, and they both deserve the blame for what it added to the deficit for the budget that year. They both can also take credit for the positive effects (which is debatable) that Tarp had on the economy.

Acting like Obama wanted nothing to do with Tarp funds is disingenuous at best.
I'm not disputing that Obama was a co-implementer of TARP.

But the recovery measures that Obama is responsible for, including half of TARP, added $200 billion to the deficit in 2009. Radar Chief is incorrect if he argues otherwise.
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Old 12-06-2012, 05:31 PM   #492
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
At least 50% to do with why the deficit has exploded prior to him taking office.

This was a conversation on the deficit, is it not?
Which includes increased spending.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
This is why.

It always cracks me up when someone tries to claim that money not owed to the government in the first place somehow cost it anything.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
That's because I'm not disputing the data.
I, and I'm sure everyone reading along, have noticed.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
The conclusion you're drawing from the data, however, is completely unsupported by any credible expert you can cite.

You won't find a single serious commentator claim Obama has doubled the deficit. But I'd love to watch you try.
I don't need an "expert" handing me my opinion when I can see the numbers for myself.
Here they are again, I'll even bold the outlays for you so you can see the increased spending.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Whitehouse.gov
In millions of dollars:
2008 “Total” “Receipts” $2,523,991 “Outlays” $2,982,544 “Surplus or Deficit (-)” -$458,553
2009 “Total” “Receipts” $2,104,989 “Outlays” $3,517,677 “Surplus or Deficit (-)” -$1,412,688
2010 “Total” “Receipts” $2,162,724 “Outlays” $3,456,213 “Surplus or Deficit (-)” -$1,293,489
2011 “Total” “Receipts” $2,303,466 “Outlays” $3,603,061 “Surplus or Deficit (-)” -$1,299,595
2012 Est. “Total” “Receipts” $2,468,599 “Outlays” $3,795,547 “Surplus or Deficit (-)” -$1,326,948
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Old 12-06-2012, 05:36 PM   #493
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Old 12-06-2012, 06:49 PM   #494
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Originally Posted by Cave Johnson View Post
You know the 2009 budget was proposed and passed in 2008, right?
Obama added spending to the 2009 budget. It's not like he started from zero and spent only a few hundred billion more than the Treasury brought in. He took over with plans to spend well over the level of revenue and then he upped the ante considerably. He deserves plenty of the credit for 2009 spending.
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Old 12-06-2012, 06:55 PM   #495
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I don't know what you think was on that ballot on Nov. 6, but it wasn't the avoidance of the fiscal cliff issue.
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