Home Mail MemberMap Chat (0) Wallpapers
Go Back   ChiefsPlanet > The Lounge
Reload this Page Chiefs Playoff and Draft Pick Odds, 2012
Register FAQDonate Members List Calendar Mark Forums Read

Reply
Page 18 of 31 « First 814151617 18 1920212228 Last »
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 09-26-2012, 08:12 PM  
cdcox cdcox is offline
www.nfl-forecast.com
 
cdcox's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2000
Casino cash: $1362446
Playoff and Draft Pick Odds, 2012
nfl-forecast.com is back for another season.

After Week 3
As of the moment, the Chiefs odds of making the playoffs are 10%.

The distribution of potential wins and draft picks will be shown in my next post.

Unfortunately, this season is shaping up to be a classic case of being *****ed by the Cassel maneuver.

Midway through Week 12

We have an 81% chance of getting the overall #1 pick.

We can afford to win a game, and in all likelihood, still take the number one overall pick. For example, if we win one game and Jacksonville loses out, we will still get the overall #1 pick 99% of the time. If we beat Carolina and they lose out, we still get the #1 pick 75% of the time.

The Chiefs are eliminated from the playoffs.

Midway through week 13

As of now odds of getting the #1 draft pick:

KC 55%
Jax 24%
Oakland 15%
Philly 4%
Field 2%

Midway through week 14

KC 55%
Jax 31%
Oakland 14%
Only 3 with decent odds.

Midway through week 15

KC 70%
Jac 30%
Oakland <<1%

KC guaranteed a top 3 spot

Midway through week 16

KC 92%
Jax 8%

Only way we don't get it is if we beat Denver and Jax loses to TN (barring ties).
Last edited by cdcox; 12-23-2012 at 02:26 PM..
Posts: 28,126
cdcox is too fat/Omaha.cdcox is too fat/Omaha.cdcox is too fat/Omaha.cdcox is too fat/Omaha.cdcox is too fat/Omaha.cdcox is too fat/Omaha.cdcox is too fat/Omaha.cdcox is too fat/Omaha.cdcox is too fat/Omaha.cdcox is too fat/Omaha.cdcox is too fat/Omaha.
   Reply With Quote
Old 12-03-2012, 07:26 AM   #256
Tribal Warfare Tribal Warfare is offline
The Boom Boom Room
 
Tribal Warfare's Avatar
 
2D Knock-Out Champion
Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: Far Beyond Comprehension
Casino cash: $1044576
Quote:
Originally Posted by htismaqe View Post
How many Super Bowls did Marino win?

In many ways, Marino is the poster child for the "prick" QB that never could become a real leader of men.

I guess beggars can't be choosers, but I don't want Phillip Rivers or Jay Culter. Stats don't win championships, winners do.
I don't want to make excuses for the guy, but Marino was one of the most clutch QBs of all-time that never really had a defense or a running game. I'd take him in a heartbeat. If Bray gets into a situation like Favre did with Holmgren, then he'll truly set the world on fire.
__________________
Posts: 25,419
Tribal Warfare wants to die in a aids tree fire.Tribal Warfare wants to die in a aids tree fire.Tribal Warfare wants to die in a aids tree fire.Tribal Warfare wants to die in a aids tree fire.Tribal Warfare wants to die in a aids tree fire.Tribal Warfare wants to die in a aids tree fire.Tribal Warfare wants to die in a aids tree fire.Tribal Warfare wants to die in a aids tree fire.Tribal Warfare wants to die in a aids tree fire.Tribal Warfare wants to die in a aids tree fire.Tribal Warfare wants to die in a aids tree fire.
   Reply With Quote
Old 12-03-2012, 07:28 AM   #257
notorious notorious is offline
I Lay Wood for a Living
 
notorious's Avatar
 

Join Date: May 2005
Location: Who knows?
Casino cash: $93399
Quote:
Originally Posted by htismaqe View Post
So one of his "selling points" is that he'd be easier to replace?
Honestly, yes.

If you draft a QB that is OK, you might give him a few more years.


I am a Chiefs fan, we must think out of the box.
Posts: 22,287
notorious is obviously part of the inner Circle.notorious is obviously part of the inner Circle.notorious is obviously part of the inner Circle.notorious is obviously part of the inner Circle.notorious is obviously part of the inner Circle.notorious is obviously part of the inner Circle.notorious is obviously part of the inner Circle.notorious is obviously part of the inner Circle.notorious is obviously part of the inner Circle.notorious is obviously part of the inner Circle.notorious is obviously part of the inner Circle.
   Reply With Quote
Old 12-03-2012, 07:49 AM   #258
htismaqe htismaqe is offline
In the misty morning...
 
htismaqe's Avatar
 

Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: on the edge of time...
Casino cash: $1044370
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tribal Warfare View Post
I don't want to make excuses for the guy, but Marino was one of the most clutch QBs of all-time that never really had a defense or a running game. I'd take him in a heartbeat. If Bray gets into a situation like Favre did with Holmgren, then he'll truly set the world on fire.
Or set the locker room on fire, one of the two.
__________________
Don't live for pleasure, make life your treasure...
\m/ Ronnie James Dio, 1942-2010 \m/
Posts: 52,058
htismaqe has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.htismaqe has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.htismaqe has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.htismaqe has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.htismaqe has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.htismaqe has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.htismaqe has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.htismaqe has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.htismaqe has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.htismaqe has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.htismaqe has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.
   Reply With Quote
Old 12-03-2012, 08:16 PM   #259
Branden Albert's Huge Balls Branden Albert's Huge Balls is offline
ARRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRGH
 
Branden Albert's Huge Balls's Avatar
 

Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: In the Soup Nazis Kitchen
Casino cash: $152753
The Jags are gonna face a Jets team led by McElroy....so they could easily win.
__________________
Alex Smith's career record when the opponent scores at least 24 points: 2-27-1
Posts: 150,404
Branden Albert's Huge Balls 's phone was tapped by Scott *****.Branden Albert's Huge Balls 's phone was tapped by Scott *****.Branden Albert's Huge Balls 's phone was tapped by Scott *****.Branden Albert's Huge Balls 's phone was tapped by Scott *****.Branden Albert's Huge Balls 's phone was tapped by Scott *****.Branden Albert's Huge Balls 's phone was tapped by Scott *****.Branden Albert's Huge Balls 's phone was tapped by Scott *****.Branden Albert's Huge Balls 's phone was tapped by Scott *****.Branden Albert's Huge Balls 's phone was tapped by Scott *****.Branden Albert's Huge Balls 's phone was tapped by Scott *****.Branden Albert's Huge Balls 's phone was tapped by Scott *****.
   Reply With Quote
Old 12-03-2012, 08:42 PM   #260
BossChief BossChief is offline
Here we go again.
 
BossChief's Avatar
 

Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: BF Iowa
Casino cash: $5327806
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cassel's Reckoning View Post
The Jags are gonna face a Jets team led by McElroy....so they could easily win.
Im not worried about the Jaguars.
__________________
Posts: 24,122
BossChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BossChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BossChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BossChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BossChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BossChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BossChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BossChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BossChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BossChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BossChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.
   Reply With Quote
Old 12-06-2012, 08:37 PM   #261
ChiefsandO'sfan ChiefsandO'sfan is online now
MVP
 
ChiefsandO'sfan's Avatar
 

Join Date: Feb 2009
Casino cash: $1368458
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChiefsandO'sfan View Post

Chiefs- 2-10 @CLE, @OAK ,IND,@DEN
Jags- 2-10 NYJ, @MIA , NE, @TEN
Carolina- 3-9 ATL , @SD , OAK , @NO
Oakland- 3-10 KC , @CAR , @SD
Eagels- 3-9 @TB , CINN , WASH , @NYG
Browns- 4-8 KC , WASH , @DEN , @PITT
Oakland has 3 winnable games left now.
Posts: 12,480
ChiefsandO'sfan Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.ChiefsandO'sfan Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.ChiefsandO'sfan Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.ChiefsandO'sfan Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.ChiefsandO'sfan Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.ChiefsandO'sfan Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.ChiefsandO'sfan Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.ChiefsandO'sfan Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.ChiefsandO'sfan Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.ChiefsandO'sfan Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.ChiefsandO'sfan Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.
   Reply With Quote
Old 12-06-2012, 08:38 PM   #262
Branden Albert's Huge Balls Branden Albert's Huge Balls is offline
ARRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRGH
 
Branden Albert's Huge Balls's Avatar
 

Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: In the Soup Nazis Kitchen
Casino cash: $152753
Cdcox, give us an update based on the Raiders losing this game?
__________________
Alex Smith's career record when the opponent scores at least 24 points: 2-27-1
Posts: 150,404
Branden Albert's Huge Balls 's phone was tapped by Scott *****.Branden Albert's Huge Balls 's phone was tapped by Scott *****.Branden Albert's Huge Balls 's phone was tapped by Scott *****.Branden Albert's Huge Balls 's phone was tapped by Scott *****.Branden Albert's Huge Balls 's phone was tapped by Scott *****.Branden Albert's Huge Balls 's phone was tapped by Scott *****.Branden Albert's Huge Balls 's phone was tapped by Scott *****.Branden Albert's Huge Balls 's phone was tapped by Scott *****.Branden Albert's Huge Balls 's phone was tapped by Scott *****.Branden Albert's Huge Balls 's phone was tapped by Scott *****.Branden Albert's Huge Balls 's phone was tapped by Scott *****.
   Reply With Quote
Old 12-06-2012, 09:37 PM   #263
Ebolapox Ebolapox is offline
remember, remember
 
Ebolapox's Avatar
 

Join Date: Jul 2002
Casino cash: $18671636
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cassel's Reckoning View Post
Cdcox, give us an update based on the Raiders losing this game?
as of right this moment--about 48% 1st pick, 22% 2nd pick, 17% 3rd pick.

IF: we lose and the jags win (see also: shitty jets team), our odds go to:

65% 1st pick, 20% 2nd pick, 9% 3rd pick

IF we lose to the raiders along with the previous conditions:

93% 1st pick, 5% 2nd pick, 2% 3rd pick.

SO... the next two weeks, losing and hoping for just a BIT of help (COME ON, JAGS) and we all-but have the 1st pick sewn up.
Posts: 24,681
Ebolapox is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Ebolapox is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Ebolapox is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Ebolapox is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Ebolapox is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Ebolapox is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Ebolapox is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Ebolapox is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Ebolapox is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Ebolapox is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Ebolapox is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.
   Reply With Quote
Old 12-06-2012, 10:06 PM   #264
philfree philfree is offline
Indian Twitter
 
philfree's Avatar
 

Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Free Agency
Casino cash: $65954
If the Chiefs, Raiders, Panthers, Jags and the Eagles all finish 3-13 where do we end up? 5th? I could see that happening to us. We are the Chiefs! The Mighty mighty Chiefs!
__________________
[/SIGPIC]
Posts: 8,925
philfree would the whole thing.philfree would the whole thing.philfree would the whole thing.philfree would the whole thing.philfree would the whole thing.philfree would the whole thing.philfree would the whole thing.philfree would the whole thing.philfree would the whole thing.philfree would the whole thing.philfree would the whole thing.
   Reply With Quote
Old 12-06-2012, 10:27 PM   #265
cdcox cdcox is offline
www.nfl-forecast.com
 
cdcox's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2000
Casino cash: $1362446
Quote:
Originally Posted by philfree View Post
If the Chiefs, Raiders, Panthers, Jags and the Eagles all finish 3-13 where do we end up? 5th? I could see that happening to us. We are the Chiefs! The Mighty mighty Chiefs!
Carolina and Oakland can't both finish 3-13.

In any possible scenario involving a bunch of teams tied at 3-13 we will draft no worse than 3rd.
Posts: 28,126
cdcox is too fat/Omaha.cdcox is too fat/Omaha.cdcox is too fat/Omaha.cdcox is too fat/Omaha.cdcox is too fat/Omaha.cdcox is too fat/Omaha.cdcox is too fat/Omaha.cdcox is too fat/Omaha.cdcox is too fat/Omaha.cdcox is too fat/Omaha.cdcox is too fat/Omaha.
   Reply With Quote
Old 12-06-2012, 10:34 PM   #266
philfree philfree is offline
Indian Twitter
 
philfree's Avatar
 

Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Free Agency
Casino cash: $65954
Quote:
Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
Carolina and Oakland can't both finish 3-13.

In any possible scenario involving a bunch of teams tied at 3-13 we will draft no worse than 3rd.
It was just about to edit my post then I figured it would be pointed out pretty fast. No worse then 3rd. We can probably still snag a QB there but probably not Geno Smith.
__________________
[/SIGPIC]
Posts: 8,925
philfree would the whole thing.philfree would the whole thing.philfree would the whole thing.philfree would the whole thing.philfree would the whole thing.philfree would the whole thing.philfree would the whole thing.philfree would the whole thing.philfree would the whole thing.philfree would the whole thing.philfree would the whole thing.
   Reply With Quote
Old 12-06-2012, 10:41 PM   #267
KCrockaholic KCrockaholic is offline
The Silent Assassin
 
KCrockaholic's Avatar
 

Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Olathe
Casino cash: $2122
To me it all comes down to that Chiefs Vs Raiders game if we can lose this weekend. We MUST lose to Oakland.
__________________
Posts: 13,848
KCrockaholic Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.KCrockaholic Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.KCrockaholic Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.KCrockaholic Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.KCrockaholic Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.KCrockaholic Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.KCrockaholic Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.KCrockaholic Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.KCrockaholic Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.KCrockaholic Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.KCrockaholic Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.
   Reply With Quote
Old 12-06-2012, 11:16 PM   #268
AussieChiefsFan AussieChiefsFan is online now
ˇMayday! .... All Day ...
 
AussieChiefsFan's Avatar
 

Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: Sydney, Australia
Casino cash: $26023285
Quote:
Originally Posted by KCrockaholic View Post
To me it all comes down to that Chiefs Vs Raiders game if we can lose this weekend. We MUST lose to Oakland.
^
__________________
Posts: 7,436
AussieChiefsFan is obviously part of the inner Circle.AussieChiefsFan is obviously part of the inner Circle.AussieChiefsFan is obviously part of the inner Circle.AussieChiefsFan is obviously part of the inner Circle.AussieChiefsFan is obviously part of the inner Circle.AussieChiefsFan is obviously part of the inner Circle.AussieChiefsFan is obviously part of the inner Circle.AussieChiefsFan is obviously part of the inner Circle.AussieChiefsFan is obviously part of the inner Circle.AussieChiefsFan is obviously part of the inner Circle.AussieChiefsFan is obviously part of the inner Circle.
   Reply With Quote
Old 12-09-2012, 01:42 PM   #269
Chiefs Pantalones Chiefs Pantalones is offline
GO CHIEFS!!!!!!
 
Chiefs Pantalones's Avatar
 

Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: Arrowhead
Casino cash: $89025
Update, love?
__________________
Looking for lower level seats for the Cowboys at Chiefs tickets for the smelly pirate hooker Cowboys fan wife and I!
Posts: 21,747
Chiefs Pantalones is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Chiefs Pantalones is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Chiefs Pantalones is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Chiefs Pantalones is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Chiefs Pantalones is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Chiefs Pantalones is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Chiefs Pantalones is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Chiefs Pantalones is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Chiefs Pantalones is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Chiefs Pantalones is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Chiefs Pantalones is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.
   Reply With Quote
Old 12-09-2012, 01:48 PM   #270
ChiefsandO'sfan ChiefsandO'sfan is online now
MVP
 
ChiefsandO'sfan's Avatar
 

Join Date: Feb 2009
Casino cash: $1368458
Chiefs- 2-11 @OAK ,IND,@DEN
Jags- 2-11 @MIA , NE, @TEN
Oakland- 3-10 KC, @CAR , @SD
Eagles- 3-10 CINN , WASH , @NYG
Carolina- 4-9 @SD , OAK , @NO
Titans- 4-9 Jets, @GB , Jags



Updated- Eagles and Jags game still going
Last edited by ChiefsandO'sfan; 12-09-2012 at 01:56 PM..
Posts: 12,480
ChiefsandO'sfan Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.ChiefsandO'sfan Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.ChiefsandO'sfan Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.ChiefsandO'sfan Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.ChiefsandO'sfan Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.ChiefsandO'sfan Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.ChiefsandO'sfan Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.ChiefsandO'sfan Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.ChiefsandO'sfan Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.ChiefsandO'sfan Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.ChiefsandO'sfan Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.
   Reply With Quote
Reply
Page 18 of 31 « First 814151617 18 1920212228 Last »

« Previous Thread | > The Lounge < | Next Thread »
Thread Tools
Display Modes
Linear Mode Linear Mode

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -6. The time now is 01:26 PM.

Contact Us - ChiefsPlanet - Archive - Top

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.0
Copyright ©2000 - 2013, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.