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Old 12-07-2012, 08:14 AM  
Direckshun Direckshun is online now
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Unemployment Falls to 7.7%

I'm surprised, I was hearing it was going to be much lower, that the fourth quarter was generally stagnant, and that 2013 is supposed to be another tough year, economically.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/20...=Google+Reader

November Employment Report: 146,000 Jobs, 7.7% Unemployment Rate
by Bill McBride
on 12/07/2012 08:30:00 AM

From the BLS:

Quote:
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 146,000 in November, and the unemployment rate edged down to 7.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. ...

Hurricane Sandy made landfall on the Northeast coast on October 29th, causing severe damage in some states. Nevertheless, our survey response rates in the affected states were within normal ranges. Our analysis suggests that Hurricane Sandy did not substantively impact the national employment and unemployment estimates for November. ...

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for September was revised from +148,000 to +132,000, and the change for October was revised from +171,000 to +138,000.


There was uncertainty about this report because of Hurricane Sandy.

The headline number was above expectations of 80,000, but both September and October payroll growth was revised down.

The second graph shows the unemployment rate. The unemployment rate declined to 7.7%.

The unemployment rate is from the household report.

The unemployment rate declined because of lower participation (a decline in the civilian labor force).

The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate.

The Labor Force Participation Rate decreased to 63.6% in November (blue line. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force.

The participation rate is well below the 66% to 67% rate that was normal over the last 20 years, although most of the recent decline is due to demographics.

The Employment-Population ratio decreased to 58.7% in November (black line). I'll post the 25 to 54 age group employment-population ratio graph later.

The fourth graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms, compared to previous post WWII recessions. The dotted line is ex-Census hiring.

This shows the depth of the recent employment recession - worse than any other post-war recession - and the relatively slow recovery due to the lingering effects of the housing bust and financial crisis.

With all the uncertainty about the impact of Hurricane Sandy, this was a decent report, especially with the decline in the unemployment rate. However, negatives include the downward revisions to prior months, and the decline in the participation rate.





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Old 12-07-2012, 11:36 AM   #16
BucEyedPea BucEyedPea is offline
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Well this is shadow stats up to Nov 2012

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate...loyment-charts
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Old 12-07-2012, 11:37 AM   #17
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Fancy graphs make the author of the article correct. Well done.
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Old 12-07-2012, 11:46 AM   #18
alpha_omega alpha_omega is offline
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Whew...glad we had all those awesome graphs to clear it up.
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Old 12-07-2012, 12:00 PM   #19
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To think, on January 3rd 2007 the unemployment rate was DOWN to 4.60% after the Bush TAX CUTS had stimulated the economy after the 9-11 caused recession...... AND we just completed a RECORD of 52 consecutive months of PRIVATE employers job growth thanks to the stimulous of the Bush tax Cuts....then what what happened ?
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Old 12-07-2012, 12:32 PM   #20
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So is this officially Obama's economy now or are we not out of the woods far enough to grow some balls yet?
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Old 12-07-2012, 12:44 PM   #21
petegz28 petegz28 is offline
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93 out of 100 people have a job = 7% unemployment

93 out of 97 people have a job = 4.2% unemployment


So as long as more people quit trying to get a job then Obama will get us squared away!
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Old 12-07-2012, 12:48 PM   #22
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Old 12-07-2012, 12:50 PM   #23
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Old 12-07-2012, 02:06 PM   #24
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Old 12-07-2012, 10:01 PM   #25
ROYC75 ROYC75 is offline
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I'm pretty sure at that point, they officially become "Democrats."


Nice one.
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Old 12-08-2012, 12:11 PM   #26
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Poor Obama, look at the mess he is going to inherit in January.....
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Old 12-08-2012, 09:13 PM   #27
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Poor Obama, look at the mess he is going to inherit in January.....
A falling unemployment rate? A hell of a lot better situation than he inherited the first time.
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Old 12-09-2012, 02:32 AM   #28
Ugly Duck Ugly Duck is offline
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If we could just get them gubmint public sector jobs back, the rate would be looking good. Oh sure, Obama has been fine with private sector jobs.... I only wish he was as marxist socialist communist big-government as RWNJs claim he is. But, as usual, they are just wrong once again..... (note the upswing begins at the Obama's stimulus)



Here we see another effect of Obama's stimulus:


Last edited by Ugly Duck; 12-09-2012 at 02:41 AM..
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Old 12-09-2012, 06:00 AM   #29
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If it falls another 3% it will be down around what it was under Bush!

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Old 12-09-2012, 06:17 AM   #30
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A falling unemployment rate? A hell of a lot better situation than he inherited the first time.
Did Mitt **** you wife? I have never seen anyone care so much about a losing candidate
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