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Old 12-07-2012, 08:14 AM  
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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Unemployment Falls to 7.7%

I'm surprised, I was hearing it was going to be much lower, that the fourth quarter was generally stagnant, and that 2013 is supposed to be another tough year, economically.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/20...=Google+Reader

November Employment Report: 146,000 Jobs, 7.7% Unemployment Rate
by Bill McBride
on 12/07/2012 08:30:00 AM

From the BLS:

Quote:
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 146,000 in November, and the unemployment rate edged down to 7.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. ...

Hurricane Sandy made landfall on the Northeast coast on October 29th, causing severe damage in some states. Nevertheless, our survey response rates in the affected states were within normal ranges. Our analysis suggests that Hurricane Sandy did not substantively impact the national employment and unemployment estimates for November. ...

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for September was revised from +148,000 to +132,000, and the change for October was revised from +171,000 to +138,000.


There was uncertainty about this report because of Hurricane Sandy.

The headline number was above expectations of 80,000, but both September and October payroll growth was revised down.

The second graph shows the unemployment rate. The unemployment rate declined to 7.7%.

The unemployment rate is from the household report.

The unemployment rate declined because of lower participation (a decline in the civilian labor force).

The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate.

The Labor Force Participation Rate decreased to 63.6% in November (blue line. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force.

The participation rate is well below the 66% to 67% rate that was normal over the last 20 years, although most of the recent decline is due to demographics.

The Employment-Population ratio decreased to 58.7% in November (black line). I'll post the 25 to 54 age group employment-population ratio graph later.

The fourth graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms, compared to previous post WWII recessions. The dotted line is ex-Census hiring.

This shows the depth of the recent employment recession - worse than any other post-war recession - and the relatively slow recovery due to the lingering effects of the housing bust and financial crisis.

With all the uncertainty about the impact of Hurricane Sandy, this was a decent report, especially with the decline in the unemployment rate. However, negatives include the downward revisions to prior months, and the decline in the participation rate.





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Old 12-10-2012, 03:36 PM   #31
BucEyedPea BucEyedPea is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cosmo20002 View Post
A falling unemployment rate? A hell of a lot better situation than he inherited the first time.

Unemployment rate is really 22.9%


Quote:
A government that wants to cut the social safety net doesn’t want you to know that the unemployment rate is 22.9%.
Quote:
Statistician John Williams (shadowstats.com) calls the government’s latest jobs and unemployment reports “nonsense numbers.
Quote:
The U.S. government simply lowers the unemployment rate by not counting all of the unemployed. We owe this innovation to the Clinton administration. In 1994 the Clinton administration redefined “discouraged workers” and limited this group to those who are discouraged for less than one year. Those discouraged for more than one year are no longer considered to be in the labor force and ceased to be counted as unemployed.

If the U.S. government will mislead the public about unemployment, it will also
mislead about Syria, Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Somalia, Pakistan, Yemen, Lebanon, Palestine, Russia, China, and 9/11. The government fits its story to its agenda.

Quote:
If the “free and democratic” Americans cannot even find out what the unemployment rate is, how do they expect to find out about anything?
http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/
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Old 12-10-2012, 03:49 PM   #32
patteeu patteeu is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cosmo20002 View Post
A falling unemployment rate? A hell of a lot better situation than he inherited the first time.
A hell of a lot worse than he should have inherited this time. And far worse than his economic team told us to expect.
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Old 12-10-2012, 03:53 PM   #33
RedNeckRaider RedNeckRaider is offline
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Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
A hell of a lot worse than he should have inherited this time. And far worse than his economic team told us to expect.
Subtract the cook the books math and this is a number the left should hope did not come up~
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Old 12-10-2012, 06:19 PM   #34
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Heh the usual dumbasses are in here acting like they know something about how the unemployment rate is figured.
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Old 12-10-2012, 08:04 PM   #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BucEyedPea View Post
Unemployment rate is really 22.9%











http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/
No it isn't. John Williams does good work but he overestimates unemployment. The government underestimates it.

The real number is in between (closer to the government's number though).

Also, and not surprising that you didn't know this, the government still counts discouraged workers. It's U6 and it's not the government's fault the media only reports U3.
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I'm just a little pussy from Iowa
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KC native wants to die in a aids tree fire.KC native wants to die in a aids tree fire.KC native wants to die in a aids tree fire.KC native wants to die in a aids tree fire.KC native wants to die in a aids tree fire.KC native wants to die in a aids tree fire.KC native wants to die in a aids tree fire.KC native wants to die in a aids tree fire.KC native wants to die in a aids tree fire.KC native wants to die in a aids tree fire.KC native wants to die in a aids tree fire.
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Old 12-10-2012, 08:07 PM   #36
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RedNeckRaider View Post
Subtract the cook the books math and this is a number the left should hope did not come up~
at the fact you think you have an informed opinion on this subject.
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