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Old 12-04-2012, 07:07 PM  
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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Why the GOP is at a distinct disadvantage in the 2016 POTUS race:

Because of the 2014 midterms.

Extremely conservative, Tea Party-friendly groups like Club for Growth are beginning a campaign to slaughter Republicans who move to the center over the next two years: governors, Representatives, Senators. And thanks to Citizens United, they pose a greater threat within the GOP than they ever have before.

That's the truth of the matter.

The GOP just got spanked in the POTUS race, lost seats in the Senate and lost the popular vote in the House (though gerrymandering kept them in the majority). They face demographics and a new generation whose views are evolving to be more center-left than they've been in decades, and the trend seems to be excellerating.

It makes total sense for the GOP to consider moderating, and for Republicans in office to consider to adapt towards the center.

But the Republican Party in 2015 is going to be as conservative as the ones in the historically shitty Congress we have now.

Because the Republicans who are in office now are either going to keep to the rightwing flank to protect their right flanks in their primary races, or they will have to race to the center to remain relevant, and get beat in their own primaries by groups like Club for Growth.

The one exception to this seems to be Republicans in hardcore liberal states. These are the only states capable of producing Republicans anymore that don't repel the rest of the country on sight. Romney was, at least at one point, a true moderate. Christie is clearly the frontrunner for 2016, and he's a moderate. The Republican Party has deep-blue states to thank for credible national candidates.

http://www.tnr.com/blog/plank/110648...-next-election

Are Republicans Already Blowing the Next Election?
John B. Judis
December 3, 2012 | 12:00 am

Are Republicans already ignoring the lessons of the presidential election? Last Monday, Republican Congresswoman Shelley Moore Capito announced plans to run in 2014 for the West Virginia Senate seat held by Jay Rockefeller. In response, former Rep. Chris Chocola, the president of the Club for Growth, declared the Club’s opposition to Moore’s candidacy. “Congresswoman Capito has a long record of support of bailouts, pork, and bigger government,” he said.

Chocola’s statement was overshadowed by the debate over what to do about the “fiscal cliff.” But it probably says more about the future direction of the Republican Party than House Speaker John Boehner’s daily animadversions on taxes and spending; and what it says is not very good--at least for those Republicans to want to revive their party’s fortunes after this November’s election. It also has some bearing on the fiscal-cliff negotiations.

There is no clear center of power in Republican Party (or, for that matter, the Democratic Party). Primaries are determined by a fairly narrow field of voters – only 15 percent of registered voters, for example, participated this year in Indiana’s hotly contested Republican Senate primary. Candidates depend not only on their personal and political appeal, but also on grassroots support and, of course, money.

That’s where organizations like the Club for Growth come in. Unlike the Republican National Committee or the National Republican Senatorial Committee, the Club’s objective is not simply to elect Republicans, but to elect what Chocola calls “true champions of economic freedom.” To do that, the Club is willing to intervene in Republican primaries, even against incumbents. And in the wake of Citizens United, it is able to raise and spend unlimited funds to do so.

A politician’s worse fear is being “primaried.” The Club’s early support can inspire a primary challenger. Its opposition – or merely the possibility of its opposition -- can frighten an incumbent or challenger into taking a more conservative stance. When the Club announces that it is putting a vote on its annual “scorecard” of who is truly conservative, Republicans have been known to change their position overnight, as happened last year with a China currency bill that the Club opposed. Last August, all seven Senators that the Club had backed in 2010 followed the Club’s lead and opposed the much-needed debt ceiling agreement.

In the early 2000s, the Club largely acted alone in primaries, but recently, it has become part of an informal network of hyper-conservative PACs, political groups, talk show hosts and bloggers that have sought to oust Republicans who they believe are not true conservatives. This network includes Senator Jim DeMint’s Senate Conservatives Fund, FreedomWorks, Americans for Prosperity, the Madison Project, various local and national Tea Party organizations, Rush Limbaugh, Glenn Beck, and Erick Erickson’s RedState.

In the beginning, this network targeted liberal Republicans like New Jersey congresswoman Marge Roukema, but it now extends to politicians like Lugar, Capito, Georgia Senator Saxby Chambliss and even House Speaker Boehner, who by any ordinary definition would be considered conservative. The Club and its allies see themselves as “insurgents” against a Republican “establishment” that falsely claims to be conservative. “What really matters,” Chocola says, “is finding [candidates] who are not part of the establishment.”

In reaction to the November results, the Republican intelligentsia in Washington and New York has called for the party to move to the center on immigration, social issues, and economics in order to broaden its base. Republicans, Ramesh Ponnuru wrote in National Review, have to make themselves “the party of middle-class economic interests.” “It won’t kill the country if we raise taxes on millionaires a little bit,” Weekly Standard editor Bill Kristol opined.

But the Club and its network blame the Republicans’ and Romney’s defeat on their not being conservative enough. “The first lesson” of Romney’s defeat, Judson Phillips of Tea Party Nation wrote, “is no more moderate Republican candidates.” The reason Romney lost, RedState’s Erickson wrote, is that he “tried to blur the lines with Barack Obama.” While ignoring Richard Mourdock’s defeat in Indiana, Chocola cites the Senate victories of Ted Cruz in Texas and Jeff Flake in Arizona as evidence that when Republicans take Club positions rather than “electable” moderates, they will win.

The Club and its network have yet to unveil their overall strategy for 2014, but some of its members groups have already threatened to back primary challenges to Chambliss and South Carolinian Lindsay Graham. And the threats have had some effect. Chambliss incurred the network’s wrath last summer for attempting to work out a bipartisan compromise on the debt ceiling. After the election, he annoyed them by downplaying his commitment to the pledge, circulated by Grover Norquist, not to raise taxes. “I care more about my country than I do about a 20-year-old pledge.” But by this week, he had tweeted that he is “not in favor of tax increases.” Chambliss’s decision was not the result of pressure from Norquist, but of the looming threat of a primary challenge from the right.

If the Club and its network remain active for 2014 and 2016 elections, they will almost certainly make it more difficult for the Republicans to retake the Senate and to win back the Presidency. That has been true in the past. The Club and Tea Party groups successfully backed far-rightist Sharron Angle in the 2010 Republican Senate primary against an “establishment” conservative who might have beaten Harry Reid. This year, they put their money on Mourdock in Indiana. And if the Club and DeMint’s opposition to Capito is any indication, they will do similar damage to the Republican cause in 2014.

West Virginia is not Arizona. It has gone Republican in the last four presidential elections, because, as my colleague Nate Cohn has noted, voters there see the national Democrats as hostile to coal and guns. But pro-gun, pro-coal Democratic politicians in West Virginia continue to hold most of the state offices and both Senate seats. That’s because West Virginia’s white working class voters, like those in neighboring Pennsylvania and Ohio, still see the Democrats as the party of the New Deal safety net and spending on roads and bridges and schools.

Capito, who won her seat in 2000, and is the daughter of former Governor and moderate Republican Arch Moore, understands the state’s electorate. She backed the expansion of Children’s Health Insurance Program, the extension of unemployment benefits, and infrastructure spending --votes that Chocola cites as reasons to oppose her. She is also an excellent campaigner. She could conceivably defeat Rockefeller and, if he were to retire, another Democratic opponent. But a Republican who espoused the kind of anti-government policies favored by the Club and its network and was able to defeat Capito in a sparsely attended Republican primary – 7 percent of the state’s registered voters went to the polls in the last contested Republican senate primary -- would be likely to lose to almost any competent Democrat.

Republicans who worry most about winning a Senate majority are happy with Moore’s candidacy. Kansas Sen. Jerry Moran, the new chairman of the NRSC, leapt to her defense after the Club and DeMint attacked her. But the Club and DeMint are oblivious to the peculiar mix of liberalism and conservatism that characterizes many voters in states like West Virginia, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. At the bottom, Chocola, DeMint, and the Tea Party activists don’t believe that Republican candidates have to move to the center on economic and social issues. They see America neatly divided between a “socialist” far left and a “conservative” far right between which the twain shall never meet. “I think the whole concept of compromise and bipartisanship is silly,” Chocola says.

Their view echoes that of leftwing Democrats of the 1980s that “there is nothing in the center of the road but yellow stripes and dead armadillos.” That piece of wisdom led to repeated Democratic defeats; and it will do likewise for the Republicans. The network’s view also makes continuing Congressional gridlock over taxes and spending likely. And that could affect more than the Republican Party. If Congress can’t avert the fiscal cliff, or continues to battle over the debt limit, that will endanger America’s fragile recovery from the Great Recession.
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Old 12-10-2012, 08:57 PM   #121
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Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
I've got $750 casino cash that says neither Hillary nor Christie will be nominated in 2016.
Based on what, do you think?

Who are you projecting, if anybody?
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Old 12-10-2012, 09:09 PM   #122
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Man, I should have set up the debate between patteeu and Direckshun. Patteeu wouldn't have skimped out for ****ing Huskers tickets.
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Old 12-10-2012, 09:24 PM   #123
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Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
Based on what, do you think?

Who are you projecting, if anybody?
I'm not projecting anyone. I just think Hillary will be really old and democrats rarely nominate the next in line anyway.

As for Christie, I just think the odds are against him because of so many potential candidates and I think being from the Northeast, having a liberal streak, and having pulled his Sandy stunt make his nomination even less likely.
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Old 12-10-2012, 09:32 PM   #124
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Man, I should have set up the debate between patteeu and Direckshun. Patteeu wouldn't have skimped out for ****ing Huskers tickets.


LETS DO THIS THING

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Old 12-10-2012, 09:39 PM   #125
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Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
I'm not projecting anyone. I just think Hillary will be really old and democrats rarely nominate the next in line anyway.

As for Christie, I just think the odds are against him because of so many potential candidates and I think being from the Northeast, having a liberal streak, and having pulled his Sandy stunt make his nomination even less likely.
I think you overestimate the depth of the DNP bench. It's a pretty shallow squad we're sportin' on the blue team.

I was iffy on Hillary's chances back in 2008 because Obama declared and John Edwards was still riding a tide of intrigue. Obama and Edwards were both extremely affable candidates with extremely high profiles.

I don't see a single one that fits that definition right now. There's no heartthrob in the DNC right now that can take Hillary out.

Well, there's one: Hillary. Hillary's become the heartthrob.

She's got the DNP locked up.

My observation of the GOP are admittedly from somebody who is not their intended audience. I just think Christie is (a.) a governor, who always do better in these things, and (b.) he is incredibly charismatic, I really enjoy listening to him talk.

While I agree with you that somebody like Rubio is much closer to where the GOP's ideology is these days, I put up a poll a couple weeks ago and out of like a dozen DC conservatives on this forum (admittedly a hilariously small sample), the overwhelming support was for Christie.
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Old 02-03-2013, 11:29 AM   #126
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Apparently the GOP agrees with the OP.

The biggest, wealthiest GOP donors are banding together to protect the establishment GOP from another potential Tea Party wave in 2014.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/03/us....html?hp&_r=1&

Top G.O.P. Donors Seek Greater Say in Senate Races
By JEFF ZELENY
Published: February 2, 2013

COUNCIL BLUFFS, Iowa — The biggest donors in the Republican Party are financing a new group to recruit seasoned candidates and protect Senate incumbents from challenges by far-right conservatives and Tea Party enthusiasts who Republican leaders worry could complicate the party’s efforts to win control of the Senate.

The group, the Conservative Victory Project, is intended to counter other organizations that have helped defeat establishment Republican candidates over the last two election cycles. It is the most robust attempt yet by Republicans to impose a new sense of discipline on the party, particularly in primary races.

“There is a broad concern about having blown a significant number of races because the wrong candidates were selected,” said Steven J. Law, the president of American Crossroads, the “super PAC” creating the new project. “We don’t view ourselves as being in the incumbent protection business, but we want to pick the most conservative candidate who can win.”

The effort would put a new twist on the Republican-vs.-Republican warfare that has consumed the party’s primary races in recent years. In effect, the establishment is taking steps to fight back against Tea Party groups and other conservative organizations that have wielded significant influence in backing candidates who ultimately lost seats to Democrats in the general election.

The first test of the group’s effort to influence primary races could come here in Iowa, where some Republicans are already worrying about who will run for the seat being vacated by Senator Tom Harkin, a Democrat. It is the first open Senate seat in Iowa since 1974, and Republicans are fearful of squandering a rare opportunity.

The Conservative Victory Project, which is backed by Karl Rove and his allies who built American Crossroads into the largest Republican super PAC of the 2012 election cycle, will start by intensely vetting prospective contenders for Congressional races to try to weed out candidates who are seen as too flawed to win general elections.

The project is being waged with last year’s Senate contests in mind, particularly the one in Missouri, where Representative Todd Akin’s comment that “legitimate rape” rarely causes pregnancy rippled through races across the country. In Indiana, the Republican candidate, Richard E. Mourdock, lost a race after he said that when a woman became pregnant during a rape it was “something God intended.”

As Republicans rebuild from losing the White House race and seats in the House and Senate last year, party leaders and strategists are placing a heightened focus on taking control of the Senate next year. Republicans must pick up six seats to win a majority.

Representative Steve King, a six-term Iowa Republican, could be among the earliest targets of the Conservative Victory Project. He said he had not decided whether he would run for the Senate, but the leaders of the project in Washington are not waiting to try to steer him away from the race.

The group’s plans, which were outlined for the first time last week in an interview with Mr. Law, call for hard-edge campaign tactics, including television advertising, against candidates whom party leaders see as unelectable and a drag on the efforts to win the Senate. Mr. Law cited Iowa as an example and said Republicans could no longer be squeamish about intervening in primary fights.

“We’re concerned about Steve King’s Todd Akin problem,” Mr. Law said. “This is an example of candidate discipline and how it would play in a general election. All of the things he’s said are going to be hung around his neck.”

Mr. King has compiled a record of incendiary statements during his time in Congress, including comparing illegal immigrants to dogs and likening Capitol Hill maintenance workers to “Stasi troops” after they were ordered to install environmentally friendly light bulbs. But he rejected the suggestion that his voting record or previous remarks would keep him from winning if he decided to run for the Senate.

“This is a decision for Iowans to make and should not be guided by some political staffers in Washington,” Mr. King said in an interview, pointing out that he won his Congressional race last year even though President Obama easily defeated Mitt Romney in Iowa. “The last election, they said I couldn’t win that, either, and the entire machine was against me.”

The Conservative Victory Project will be a super PAC operating independently of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. It will disclose the names of donors and raise money separately from American Crossroads, officials said, because some donors were uncomfortable about aggressively weighing in on Republican-vs.-Republican fights.

“It is a delicate and sensitive undertaking,” Mr. Law said. “Our approach will be to institutionalize the Buckley rule: Support the most conservative candidate who can win.”

But by imposing the rule of the conservative leader William F. Buckley, the group could run afoul of Ronald Reagan’s “11th Commandment” to not speak ill of a fellow Republican.

In Iowa, Cory Adams, the chairman of the Story County Republican Party, said the criticism aimed at Mr. King was unfair and misdirected. He warned of resistance from conservative activists if outside groups tried to interfere in the Senate race.

“If he wants to run for the Senate, he should be allowed to run,” Mr. Adams said of Mr. King, whose Congressional district includes Story County. “The more people get to know him, the more they will like him.”

The retirement announcements last month from Mr. Harkin and Senator Saxby Chambliss, Republican of Georgia, have created wide-open Senate races that are expected to attract several prospective candidates. The Conservative Victory Project is working to build a consensus with other groups on candidates who have the strongest chance of winning.

Grover Norquist, who leads Americans for Tax Reform, a fiscally conservative advocacy group that plays a role in Republican primary races, said he welcomed a pragmatic sense of discipline in recruiting candidates. But he said it was incorrect to suggest that candidates backed by Tea Party groups were the only ones to lose, pointing to establishment Republicans in North Dakota and Montana who also lost their races last year.

“People are imagining a problem that doesn’t exist,” Mr. Norquist said. “We’ve had people challenge the establishment guy and do swimmingly.”

Sue Everhart, the head of the Georgia Republican Party, said she did not object to outside intervention. But because open Senate seats do not come along very often, she said,“we have six congressmen who want the job,” which could create a messy and divisive primary regardless of the efforts to control the race.

“The primary has to sort itself out in Georgia,” Ms. Everhart said. “That’s what primaries are for. But we cannot afford to take our eye off the ball. This is going to be a very important election, and it’s paramount that Georgia keeps its Senate seat in Republican hands.”
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Old 02-03-2013, 11:39 AM   #127
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Quote:
Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
I'm not projecting anyone. I just think Hillary will be really old and democrats rarely nominate the next in line anyway.

As for Christie, I just think the odds are against him because of so many potential candidates and I think being from the Northeast, having a liberal streak, and having pulled his Sandy stunt make his nomination even less likely.

I like Christie. He is one of the few from the GOP I would consider looking at. The fact that he does not cater to the conservative southern christens is a plus in my book. The guy is no nonsense, and doesn't care who he calls out for their BS. I may disagree with him on some of his economic points, but he is one of the few politicians on either side who is believable in their sincerity and honesty.
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Old 02-03-2013, 11:41 AM   #128
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I like Christie. He is one of the few from the GOP I would consider looking at. The fact that he does not cater to the conservative southern christens is a plus in my book. The guy is no nonsense, and doesn't care who he calls out for their BS. I may disagree with him on some of his economic points, but he is one of the few politicians on either side who is believable in their sincerity and honesty.
Thanks, mainly, to the deep blue states.

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Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
Republicans who are in office now are either going to keep to the rightwing flank to protect their right flanks in their primary races, or they will have to race to the center to remain relevant, and get beat in their own primaries by groups like Club for Growth.

The one exception to this seems to be Republicans in hardcore liberal states. These are the only states capable of producing Republicans anymore that don't repel the rest of the country on sight. Romney was, at least at one point, a true moderate. Christie is clearly the frontrunner for 2016, and he's a moderate. The Republican Party has deep-blue states to thank for credible national candidates.
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Old 02-03-2013, 11:41 AM   #129
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Christie is a fat-fck who betrayed his own party in 2012. He's dead man walking, and not viable anymore nationally with the party.
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Old 02-03-2013, 11:44 AM   #130
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Christie is a fat-fck who betrayed his own party in 2012. He's dead man walking, and not viable anymore nationally with the party.
And its statements like the one above as to why the GOP wont win back the Oval office unless it stops thinking about whats best for their party line, and starts to think about whats best for the country as a whole.
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Old 02-03-2013, 11:51 AM   #131
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Christie is a fat-fck who betrayed his own party in 2012. He's dead man walking, and not viable anymore nationally with the party.
Let's make this a bet, shall we?

How about: the day Christie gets the GOP nomination, I get your signature for the remainder of the 2016 POTUS election.

However, should Christie either not enter, or drop out, you get mine for the remainder of the 2016 POTUS election.

Deal?
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Old 02-03-2013, 11:59 AM   #132
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Christie is a fat-fck who betrayed his own party in 2012. He's dead man walking, and not viable anymore nationally with the party.
What betrayal?
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Old 02-03-2013, 12:01 PM   #133
Thatguy Thatguy is online now
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Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
What betrayal?
He told off that Faux News guy...thats a no-no for any GOP person.
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Old 02-03-2013, 01:10 PM   #134
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Originally Posted by Prison Bitch View Post
Christie is a fat-fck who betrayed his own party in 2012. He's dead man walking, and not viable anymore nationally with the party.
If telling some schmuck on FOX News that he didn't give a damn if Mitt Romney was coming to visit while his state was picking up the pieces from Superstorm Sandy makes him "not viable anymore nationally" with the GOP, then the GOP has WAY bigger problems then Christie himself.
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Old 02-03-2013, 01:21 PM   #135
RNR RNR is offline
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Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
Let's make this a bet, shall we?

How about: the day Christie gets the GOP nomination, I get your signature for the remainder of the 2016 POTUS election.

However, should Christie either not enter, or drop out, you get mine for the remainder of the 2016 POTUS election.

Deal?
What's with the weak bet? I thought all political bets where lifetime bans or nothing~
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