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Old 12-11-2012, 08:59 AM  
duncan_idaho duncan_idaho is offline
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2013 Kansas City Royals Repository Thread

Proposed 2013 Slogan: Tigers: They're what's for dinner
Actual 2013 Slogan: Come to Play
A better, more accurate, or alternative slogan: All in, no panic, we promise.

Dayton Moore has pushed all his chips in and is riding on King/Jack suited, hoping it comes together, he gets some good luck, and he hits the nuts by the river card. There's potential, oh yes, there's potential. There's also risk.

At the midway point, Dayton is left counting on the river card. The flop and turn didn't help him, and he's looking at the Tigers holding a pair of Queens and the Indians holding a pair of 9s. His 2013 plan hasn't failed - yet - but the odds are not in his favor.

Burning questions updates below.

Burning Questions for 2013:

1) Will the improve rotation be improved enough? Does James Shields pitch like a fringe No. 1 away from Tampa Bay? Does Ervin Santana pitch to his highest upside in his walk year? Can Jeremy Guthrie build on his strong performance as a Royal in 2012? Can Wade Davis bring his new mentality- and velocity - back to the rotation?

Midseason check-in: Yes, the rotation is certainly improved enough. Shields has pitched like a fringe No. 1 and Santana is having his best season. Guthrie has horrible peripherals but has continued to perform well at his home park and eat innings on the road. Davis brought neither his kick-ass mentality or improved velocity back to the rotation and is in Luke Hochevar/Hiram Davies territory.

2) When will Luke Hochevar be shown the door?
Midseason check-in: It appears, never, at this point. Hochevar has been solid in non-leverage situations, though pretty much every time he has been used with men on base in an inning, it has been a disaster.

3) Does Hosmer bounce back?
Midseason check-in: It took some time, but Hosmer's performance from June 1 on is probably the most encouraging thing about the 2013 season so far.
4) Can Moustakas hit for a whole season like he did in the first half of 2012?
Midseason check-in: Nope. Moustakas was god-awful, then great for about 3 weeks, then god-awful again. He has been better since he started working with Brett and Grafol but still has a long way to go.
5) Who regresses?
Midseason check-in: Welp, Alicides Escobar is not a surprising name here (though Yost's stubborn insistence on hitting him second is ridiculous). Billy Butler is a surprise. He isn't having a terrible year - still contributing a lot to the offense - but he's not hitting for the average or power he has displayed over the past several years.
6) Who plays 2B?
Midseason check-in: A whole bunch of people, and not that great. Gio is at least getting a shot, though he once again is not doing much with it.
7) Can Jeff Francoeur be at least replacement level, rather than epic horrible level?
Midseason check-in: Hahahahahahahahahahaha
8) Will Dayton Moore survive to see 2014?
Midseason check-in: Outlook uncertain. Probably still around, unless the team completely tanks in the second half and he does something foolish. My guess - he sacrifices Ned Yost this offseason and gets one more shot with a new manager in 2014.
9) Will Danny Duffy come back healthy? And if he does, is he the same, better or worse?
Midseason check-in: Yes. Velocity looks the same, and it looks likely he is the same guy as before.
10) And the big one: Has KC added enough to run down the big-money Detroit Tigers?
Midseason check-in: Doesn't look like it, does it?

Last edited by duncan_idaho; 07-15-2013 at 10:01 AM..
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Old 12-11-2012, 09:17 AM   #16
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Sunday night, I was pretty pissed. No, really pissed. But the more it settles, the more I like it for the following reasons:

1. Pitching is king in baseball. Bottom line. Without good starting pitching, you can't go anywhere as a team. Particularly in the playoffs, teams with pitching always prevail. Think about our 1985 team. Think about the Giants this year. Wasn't Gregor Blanco playing in the outfield? Pitching.

2. Shields is a baller, and he wants to be here. I'll LOVE it if we can extend his contract, but he seems happy to be in KC and ready to embrace the challenge of being a #1. And could it be that KC isn't viewed as a wasteland it used to be?

3. We still have a really good farm system. It isn't like we leveraged the whole thing to get Shields/Davis.

4. We're spending money. Not sure it's all being spent wisely, but that's on DM. At least we're spending.
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Old 12-11-2012, 09:20 AM   #17
Chief_For_Life58 Chief_For_Life58 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ChiTown View Post
Yep, I'm definitely in the acceptance phase of that deal. I'm just miffed that we have NO ONE worth a shit to play RF, unless Dyson enters the everyday lineup in CF and pushes Cain to RF.
we really need lorenzo to step up and not be an injured little bitch the whole year
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Old 12-11-2012, 09:20 AM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by duncan_idaho View Post
As promised, here's news that's guaranteed to put the Wil Myers trade in some interesting perspective (or at least it did for me). I present to you... a comparison of seasons that led to the player being named minor league player of the year.

STAT PLAYER A MYERS
Average: .319 .314
HR: 27 37
** (Player A has higher power grade. Myers has more HR-friendly park)**
SLG: .587 .600
OBP: .375 .387
Ks: 135 140
K rate: 25.9% 26.8%

Who is player A? He looks an awful lot like Wil Myers, doesn't he?
I'll guess Jay Bruce. Travis Snider's minor league line would have been pretty close to that too, but you said MILB player of the year.
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Old 12-11-2012, 09:22 AM   #19
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I've decided the trade bothers me less than some of the reasons that led to it.

For instance, I'm far more pissed that we waste money tendering Luke Hochevar a $4+ million contract, or sign Yuni Betancourt (and then release him, not because he's godawful, but only because he "wasn't accepting his utility role"), or play Jeff Francoeur into the ground despite the fact he's the worst player in baseball.

If David Glass insists on low payrolls, then Dayton Moore isn't the guy who's getting the most bang for the buck.

So I'd be more comfortable trading a chip like Myers in a "go for it" move if I had more confidence that Moore wouldn't undermine it by embracing shit players and overpaying them.
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If you make enough good decisions, three-year plans turn into two-year plans and five-year plans turn into three-year plans. If you make bad decisions, 10-year plans turn into no plan. -- Dayton Moore, 2006

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Old 12-11-2012, 09:24 AM   #20
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Damn it. One more year, that is all I am giving them, ok maybe two but that is it..

Been a long time since I was in the stands at the K watching a world series.
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Old 12-11-2012, 09:25 AM   #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by duncan_idaho View Post
As promised, here's news that's guaranteed to put the Wil Myers trade in some interesting perspective (or at least it did for me). I present to you... a comparison of seasons that led to the player being named minor league player of the year.

STAT PLAYER A MYERS
Average: .319 .314
HR: 27 37
** (Player A has higher power grade. Myers has more HR-friendly park)**
SLG: .587 .600
OBP: .375 .387
Ks: 135 140
K rate: 25.9% 26.8%

Who is player A? He looks an awful lot like Wil Myers, doesn't he?
im gonna guess gordon or delmon young
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Old 12-11-2012, 09:26 AM   #22
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I'll guess Jay Bruce.
Even if it's not, that's the guy I've thought Myers might be ... maybe more toward his floor. If Ryan Braun is his ceiling, Bruce is the floor (although a lot of Bruce's value comes from playing in Great American).
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Old 12-11-2012, 09:26 AM   #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by duncan_idaho View Post
As promised, here's news that's guaranteed to put the Wil Myers trade in some interesting perspective (or at least it did for me). I present to you... a comparison of seasons that led to the player being named minor league player of the year.

STAT PLAYER A MYERS
Average: .319 .314
HR: 27 37
** (Player A has higher power grade. Myers has more HR-friendly park)**
SLG: .587 .600
OBP: .375 .387
Ks: 135 140
K rate: 25.9% 26.8%

Who is player A? He looks an awful lot like Wil Myers, doesn't he?
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Old 12-11-2012, 09:29 AM   #24
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Yes, the man we protected in the expansion draft over Jeff Conine.
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If you make enough good decisions, three-year plans turn into two-year plans and five-year plans turn into three-year plans. If you make bad decisions, 10-year plans turn into no plan. -- Dayton Moore, 2006

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Old 12-11-2012, 09:29 AM   #25
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Old 12-11-2012, 09:32 AM   #26
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I don't know who that is, except it's not Gordon. What's the point? Myers is 21 and he had that season. He's a real high likelihood to be good. I love how people cherry-pick the few busts here and there and act like Myers has an equal parts chance of bust vs. success. He doesn't. The odds are HEAVILY IN FAVOR of him being good for Tampa.


Whoever posted the Kila stats on that last thread to make this same point, needs to be slapped too.
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Old 12-11-2012, 09:32 AM   #27
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KC Connection hits on the head: Player A is Jay Bruce.

I was looking at the list of BA POTY over the past 20 years, and trying to break them into categories (Superstar/First division/injury bust/bust/too early to tell) and Jay Bruce was one that was hard to slot.

So I looked at his minor league numbers the year he was named POTY, and was shocked at the similarities.

If I were forced to lay a bet on it, I'd guess Myers' major league numbers look a LOT like Bruce's - except with a few less HRs (playing in the Trop for 81 games vs. playing in that bandbox in Cincinnati).

I started asking myself... If I were a Reds fan, and Cincy had traded Bruce for two years of (INSERT SOMEONE SIMILAR TO JAMES SHIELDS) before the 2008 season, how would I feel about it now (assuming that guy pitched well for my team).

Took me all the way into acceptance mode.
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Old 12-11-2012, 09:35 AM   #28
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Quote:
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I don't know who that is, except it's not Gordon. What's the point? Myers is 21 and he had that season. He's a real high likelihood to be good. I love how people cherry-pick the few busts here and there and act like Myers has an equal parts chance of bust vs. success. He doesn't. The odds are HEAVILY IN FAVOR of him being good for Tampa.


Whoever posted the Kila stats on that last thread to make this same point, needs to be slapped too.
And Jay Bruce - player A - was 20 when he had that season. He did it across three levels rather than two, but they spent similar time in AAA.

My point: There's a strong indicator that Myers is going to be a very good MLB RF. Probably about the same as Jay Bruce.

Puts a little different - and lower - perspective on Wil Myers' value than I had three days ago, when he was still on my team and I didn't want to analyze these flaws that deeply.

Not trying to say Myers is going to be a bust at all. Just that he's more likely to be Jay Bruce than Ryan Braun (which is what we all were hoping for).
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Old 12-11-2012, 09:42 AM   #29
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This is the year I get back into baseball, and I'm all in on the Royals. What else do I have to cheer for these days?
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Old 12-11-2012, 09:43 AM   #30
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This is the year I get back into baseball, and I'm all in on the Royals. What else do I have to cheer for these days?
Awesome, dude! Welcome to our crew.
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